Australian Dollar 2018

The Hill....pretty good.

 

Actually, I give the credit to the Federal Reserve for the 0% rates for many years and the Quantitative Easing trillions of dollars they unleashed into the world economy.

 

where else can you find it

 

Looks like it's finally starting to happen, after about a month of US bond yields being slightly above AUS.
AUD just had a steep drop 1% overnight to 77c to USD.

US 10yr now 2.8445%
AUS 10yr 2.692%

Rate rise from FED next week will probably enforce this trend and a sell off in Aus $ and assets.

 

Interesting
Good to have US$

 

It's now almost 2 months since the spread between US and Australian 10-year bond yields turned negative.
US 2.81% vs AUS 2.66% (still around 15points difference)

Not seeing local banks raising rates yet though.

AUD has dipped below 77c now as iron ore prices start coming down(~$62++) from all the trade war hoohah going around. Quite surprised it hasn't gone much lower yet given the negative spread between the bond yields. Perhaps there's some lag.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a bottoming pattern for the last 10-11 weeks and looks to be breaking to the up side. When we get a break past 90.87 and a weekly close above that i would imagine that will be the confirmation of wholesale capital flight to US Dollar Assets.

That's when the fun really begins.

 

Why not open a local USA bank account TT the money there ...then use the local ATM..?

 

US 10yr has finally hit 3% tonight with AUD finally taking a hit these past couple days and touching 76c. @MTR 75c and below looks like it might happen soon.

 

Thanks
Interesting times, another roller coaster

 

Fun week

 

Definitely downward pressure. Very good for those getting income outside Australia. For us importers, it’s not good!

 

Who here thinks it will get close to .70??

 

Exactly. Its bad for my business where all my stock comes from O/S and its paid in USD. This in turn reduces my profit margins and I may have to hike prices for the end customer.

I hope AUD goes to and stays around the 80c USD long term.

 

read a couple post back. My was betting on 75c and I was betting on 70c or less.

Sure looks like it going that way as Aussie bonds are going to do well with RBA having to keep rates low whilst the aud will continue to go down as USD strengthens from rising rates.

Buy Australian Bonds, Sell the Currency: Morgan Stanley Buy Australian Bonds, Sell the Currency: Morgan Stanley

 

Fed just raise rates again, looks like further downside for AUD.
Fed raises rates, lifts forecasts for more 2018 rises

 

Thats certainly a factor but our increasing resources exports seem to be propping up the dollar

 

With a possibility of two more rate hikes this year...
Fed Raises Interest Rates and Signals 2 More Increases Are Coming

 

I have a question - in what circumstances would future Australia see rates as high as back in the 70-80s?

 

It would come down to a political or military or economic events occurring within a specified time frame ,or Labor is voted in within the next 12 months..If the rates went back to the levels of the early 1980's when I started investing in property most would be blown out of the water and the likelihood of that happening from what I read from business political and economic experts would cause severe nervous breakdowns and acute alcoholism..

The only question to ask yourself is if the US money systems intends to up the rates 3-5 times this year,and most Banks in Australia borrow funds from within those markets frameworks..