Australian Dollar 2018

Most of that is just excess liquidity from the 3 QEs they have done over the past decade..With such a massive amount of stimulus, one would expect GDP, unemployment numbers to improve and also massive rise in asset prices.

I suspect the USD will be kept lowish for a while, to enable the big corporations to repatriate the billions stashed overseas. Big companies like APPLE are already starting to bring back the BILLIONS in profits. The new tax law was just what they wanted.

Check this out.
It looks like Apple is bringing back home nearly all of its $250 billion in foreign cash
[

• Apple "anticipates repatriation tax payments of approximately $38 billion as required by recent changes to the tax law. A payment of that size would likely be the largest of its kind ever made," the company said.
• Using the new 15.5 percent repatriation tax rate, the $38 billion tax payment disclosed by Apple means they are planning a $245 billion repatriation.

]

Unfortunately this could mean a tightening in liquidity/credit in Europe and Asia if Apple does it this year together with other heavyweights that have billions in foreign cash/bonds/securities like Microsoft, etc....

 

Thanks, I posted the link in Apple.... interesting times in US

 

Yeah the Trump tax cuts are wonderful for companies and their shareholders. But those economic growth numbers are mainly due to the almost zero interest rates held by the Fed for almost a decade, which definitely injected a lot of stimulus into the economy. I would not attribute the growth story to Trump.

 

i disagee, but who cares at the end of the day US economy is roaring that is fact

 

Escaping the Euro wouldn't be a bad thing, currency union has not worked well for many European states. As for trade agreements:


Escaping from the fascist corrupt jackboot of Spain will be painful at first but ultimately Catalunya will thrive. Political prisoners, media and free speech suppression, nazis roaming freely (it´s not illegal like it is in Germany and Italy) and supported by the government, police, monarchy and judiciary. Franco´s fascism is alive and kicking in Espanistan.
Franco’s fascism is alive and kicking in Spain | Coffee House

Visca Catalunya lliure.

 

The government shut down for the weekend. They are confident it’ll be solved before Monday. How does something like this affect currency?

 

Usually it should, but markets will probably just shrug this off as it happened before when Obama was in charge.

 

Hope the AUD gets back to US 90+ cents this year for the benefit of everyone.

 

It will

 

I honestly hope so too man. I want to buy myself some new toys from there. 90c will do me just fine.

 

Unlikely, oil prices have started abating again from increasing us supply which means the whole commodity complex will be going on a downtrend again following that. Commodity currency like ours will follow suit.

Plus us rates supposed to go up more thus year.

 

The last US rise had zero affect on us. In fact our AUD went up post the rises. Our economy is quite strong with yesterday it was on the news retail had a quite big quarter.

Jobs on the rise. Unemployment at its lowest for decades - all we need this year is some wages growth which will stimulate all sectors and if the resources sectors maintain its current situations which I think it will as China reported its biggest growth in the last 6 years the other night.

I think its a real possibility of 90c in 2018.

 

How is that beneficial to everyone? Not good for exporters (miners, farmers). But good for keeping inflation and interest rates low.

 

Westpac predicting 70 AUD by mid July, I have no clue what will happen, been wrong on a number of occasions.. We will have to watch and wait.

90 AUD don't see this happening anytime soon

 

The bulls and the bears.... I am in the bear camp
Time will tell, its going to be a rocky ride me thinks

Experts clash on whether Aussie dollar is on track to crash or surge

 

That’s interesting because most of the countries you illustared are part of the EEA, and UK certainly wants the post-Brexit EU free trade and fin services passporting rights. It’s like asking for access to the conjugal bedroom after beaking up when you’ve cheated your partner.

 

I have been waiting for Aussie dollar to drop to 68 cents according to Westpac prediction, but in fact it's moving in the other direction. I don't believe them anymore.

I am now tracking Big Mac prices.

@datto you need to tell me when those burgers are on special. I am counting on you mate.

 

I think you are correct....why:

1. Oz dollar is a commodity and agricultural based currency
2. Commodities - such are lithium, silver, LNG are increasing...
3. Agricultural demand is huge not only from China but also India, Indonesia
4. Our interest rates will rise slowly...there is some pressure

I can't seeing it hit 90s in 2 years but definitely in the 80s.

 

I want it to be wrong though.

 

Its been a roller coaster ride, I have been watching and waiting, lots of conflicting info in different camps. I will tell who got it right in July 2018