Australian Dollar 2018

{Note from mods - this thread continued from here: Australian Dollar 2017}

 

Uncle Donalrd is causing the USD to drop......

Donald Trump is probably to blame for the weak US dollar

 

Heading to the US in 9 days for a 3000 mile road trip and trade show in Vegas. The 0.76 USD per AUD I got this week is favourable to 2016 where I got as little as 0.64 USD per AUD..... (Once you account for ATM fees etc... It was sometimes worse).

If only the US was as cheap as SE Asia.... I would be part retired there already.

 

Just travel with cash-as from the way it looks the 80cents may well be breached very shortly and if this is a business trip then why worry which way the aussie dollar goes as it is just starting to crank in the upward trend..imho..

 

Kind of business, but not deductible. We will have both AUD and USD cash on us.

 

You can have 10k in cash walking into the USA ,ans if it goes the way I think it may you will do well ..not advice in any way but I only travel with cash wiwo.

 

I am collecting and waiting.....it wont be bitcoin, but its going to work out, so far do good

 

From my perspective I think either way property wins regardless of direction of currency
AUD drops then foreign cash will make it in (lets not pretend foreign cash is not coming in to secondary market)
AUD goes up than Reserve bank need to hold interest rates or decrease them or the economy will be trouble (export creates more jobs than importing

 

Was interesting to see how the $US dropped with the Chinese bond article that came out on Tuesday......irony though as for years people have been saying "its got to happen eventually".

Even more ironic was when Robert Sinche talking about Chinese bond sales on @BloombergTV today about how this decision was made months ago and how it's historic e.g. happened in August last year and not "coming" but the 'oversized reaction' was because of the zerohedge post even though data was available in govt doc reports last year.

 

I will be hilarious....if there is sudden drop in the US dollar....when that happens currencies like the Swiss Franc, Euro, Australian Dollar, Yen, Pound will jump with the current policies of Trump there is a real possibility that some US corporations may moving some of their businesses offfshore...it makes sense because the USA's total GDP out of the total World GDP is becoming smaller so why would you have most of your staff in the US...if most of the growth is coming from countries in the Asia ..Middle East and Africa....does not make sense to me...

 

They are all moving to Atlanta...hehe... on a serious note some of the big fortune 500 companies I think 12 last year moved their operationis to Atlanta, just cheaper to do business in this State, that simple
Also need to consider recent US tax bill/tax cuts and how this will impact?? they expect this to increase business in US

 

MTR...a lot of companies are moving to Atlanta because wages are lower...but I would say a lot of the labor is not as skilled as other states - i.e. California/Northeast etc. So most of the jobs would be lower skilled.

The real issue is CEOs in high growth areas like IT/Tech/Pharmaceuticals/Biomedical stuff are now looking to distribute the workforce globally as it is cheaper.

It is going to places like Eastern Europe, part of Latin America, Russia, China, India, Phillipines to be closer to their markets. I feel that as the US economy becomes less important and the economies of India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, Mexico take their place in the top 20 economies....you will see things shift a lot. The US companies will need take a more international view and place large operations in these countries.

 

Right, time will tell
It goes against the grain though, what Republicans/Trump currently doing, bringing back manufacturing etc to USA, ie more jobs etc.

This in part is why movie industry which is worth billions $ has been set up in Atlanta. Cheaper labour as you mentioned.
https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta...gias-film-industry-generates-9-5-billion.html

 

Iron ore is closing in on $80 a tonne

Ironed ore doing well so are. Many other commodities so Aussie doing well

 

I can never work out the Au$, its a roller coaster, Westpac predicted weak $ and could fall back to 68, and now we are seeing a rebound. Watch and wait I guess

 

Very. Commodity driven in my opinion.
Its Terms Of Trade. What China is doing has large bearing on our currency.

I deal with Commbank Forex division. I find when I. Call them and speak to their Forex team. I find they are rarely right.

I trade weekly as we buy stock from China in USD.

Best of luck

 

AUD/USD (AUDUSD=X)
CCY - CCY Delayed price. Currency in USD
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0.7979+0.0021 (+0.27 %)
As of 12:17AM GMT. Market open.



Going Up


Any ideas about ceiling? or should I buy currency now! buy USD that is

 

I disagree. Look at Intel, Nvidia or Microsoft, they generate more than 60% of their sales outside of US but close to 80% of their engineering is in US. Who are you going to hire in Middle East or Philippines for knowledge work, do they actually have any decent colleges ? AFAIK in Philippines it's all call centers, hardly any engineering. Even the richest country in Asia, like Singapore, has crap college graduates despite all the rankings (which Singapore games quite a bit, btw). As long as US colleges dominate in hard sciences despite the anti-intellectualism of large swath of US (Trump and the modern Republican party), that knowledge work will remain in US.

 

You can disagree all you want a lot of the R&D centres are increasingly being put in countries like China, India etc.

 

Given that R&D is my job for more than a decade or two I think know a lot more about hiring for R&D than you think. There is close to no US R&D in China, there are Chinese companies R&D in China, as one would expect though increasingly Chinese companies are opening pretty big engineering centers in US.