Australian Dollar 2016

Time to play..... short the Au$ - strong US%

Extract (Forex)

USD edges off 14 year highs but is the Aussie poised for deeper losses

Touching intraday lows at 0.7241 Further, expectations strong U.S growth and tighter monetary policy continue to promote U.S Treasury Yields and a bullish Greenback. With little macroeconomic data on hand today attentions turn to the U.S economic docket for direction amid thin holiday trading.

 

The only question to ask yourself is ,what timeframe do you focus on ,and what is the maximum loss people that go short or long are prepared to sustain..

 

Will
Like everything have to do your homework and manage risk, but when you consider the US is coming back strong, economy back on the rise..... I think its looking good

 

Only my opinion but with the lead up to MrTrump taking over then the next six months after we may see a rally of the magnitude with the mood on Wall Street and in US financial centers that has never been seen before,it that were to happen then the Australian dollar would come under the hammer..imho..But also remember all money equities markets sometime look very well priced on the straight line fundamental day trends basic,but the can also get cheaper very quickly..imho..i dont trade in money risk is just 2 high..

 

I agree with you, US market currently bullish, if this momentum continues we will see Au$ continue to fall

 

in the short term it is likely AUD will be shorted down as it tracks the iron ore/coal commodity prices

UPDATE 1-China iron ore tumbles more than 7 pct as port stocks grow to 2-year high

which will be on a downtrend with China cooling their property markets again.

UPDATE 1-China's Nov home prices show gov't curbs starting to cool sharp rally

Heard about the smog that's choking all them commies? lol
China on second red alert as smog smothers cities, stops flights, closes roads
(like living in a chimney)

 

I think everyone wants to see the AUD trading around 80-90 cents so let's hope the RBA act soon and lift interest rates in Oz

 

Not everybody wants a high dollar. I run 2 airbnbs and my sister runs an import export business. She'll want a high dollar when buying her stock, but a low dollar when selling her goods. I want a low dollar so more people from overseas want to come to Australia, therefore lifting my demand....

 

careful what you hope for.

 

It seems businesses are losing confidence in Yuan very quickly.
At 7-Eleven, One Yuan Buys You One Hong Kong Dollar

China is selling US treasuries to support the sinking yuan == higher interest rates and funding costs. Japan seems to be selling too but not as much.
China is no longer the biggest foreign holder of U.S. debt

So it looks like we can expect even higher interest rates going into next year.

AUD has also been sold off this week below 72c to USD now in concert with the iron ore price which looks like its going the other way now, especially with production of steel going down as China deals with pollution and the coming Lunar new year. Bad news for W.A and QLD i guess...

 

I was also reading a report that there is an oversupply of apartments in Brissy which we know of course, however this is impacting on prices overall. I also don't think investors understand the significance/impact of how important mining is for the economy in QLD.

Interesting times in 2017 for property and Australian property market and Australian $

Still not sure how Trump will effect Australian property market?

 

this is probably not the thread for TRumps effect on Aussie property. However Trump being elected and his future plans are starting to move things along a certain path.

Chinese just announced they will be going for an even lower GDP next year.

President Xi Open to Growth in China Falling Below 6.5%
President Xi Open to Growth in China Falling Below 6.5%


Also they are trying to prop up the falling(dare i say crashing) Yuan which is almost 7 to the USD now.

China cedes top U.S. creditor crown to Japan as yuan struggles
China cedes top U.S. creditor crown to Japan as yuan struggles

When US treasuries are sold down, apparently it increases rates and funding costs for everyone else.

So Trump = higher rates = bad for Aussie property market??

 

Haha yes of course importers want a high dollar and exporters want a low dollar but not sure Airbnb would be affected so much? What is the ratio of domestic vs international guests? If your occupancy rate increased from 84% to 98% due to the dollar falling to 63 cents, would that be a good thing?

I think most people want a higher dollar because things like petrol, hardware, white goods, cars, clothing, computers, food etc would be cheaper.

However the main reason is because the higher the dollar, the more wealth you have, e.g. if your Aussie IP portfolio is worth $2m with the AUD @ 90 cents and the AUD drops to 70 cents, then you've just lost AU$400,000 on the world stage ($1.8m - $1.4m).

 

My occupancy rate won't change, its around 90% and the reason is that I don't try to fill 1 night gaps between bookings, I just can't be bothered to accept 1 night stays. But instead of charging $129 per night for example for my base rate perhaps I could charge $140 per night, which is another 8.5%.
Re: Aussie and overseas mix, I get both, but I believe international are my bigger slice of my guest bookings.

Re: world stage.... my wealth in USD is not my main concern right now....

 

Money play is very interesting in 2011/12 I invested around $500,000 Au$ in US property at the time Au$ was around 1.00-1.09 AU$.

With US property prices in Atlanta soaring and Au$ now at 72 AU... Just worked out that my initial investment is now worth $1,499,146.32.

I just reinvested another $500,000 Au$ in USA property at current rates of around 75 AU, if the Au$ drops to 65 AU$ I have made around 15% on my money if I do nothing.

If you can time it right and bring money back on dips it can be lucrative, I am not doing this as I am now playing in USA. Below is the reason why we have started developing/building, not enough new housing and first stages of building in USA.

Interesting times indeed.

The US Housing Forecast is Looking Good 2017 to 2020 and Beyond
buying, investing and selling in 2017. More experts are predicting a strong year ahead for US housing in 2017 with almost no risk of a crash downturn. They see exisiting home sales of 6 to 6.5 million in 2017 along with 160,000 new homes being built per year up to 2024. When builders are feeling optimistic, it’s a good omen.

Housing Construction Starts Will Slowly Rise
It’s predicted that new home construction won’t keep up with demand, however it is recovering and we’ll see more renters becoming homeowners over the next decade.



{Note - thread continues here: Australian Dollar 2017}