Australian Dollar 2016

Yep. Will be interesting to see what the flow on effects are for the NSW economy, considering the Westconnex project is already in a $7B hole. Could effect the Australian economy.

 

There's just no stopping the Australian dollar at present

 

NSW electricity sell-off: Scott Morrison blocks Mike Baird’s sale of Ausgrid to Chinese bidders
Should be interesting for the NSW economy, considering they've already spent the money - and more.

 

Since the end of June the $Aud/USD has been trading in a fairly tight band of about .74-.77

Which way will it break?

If the RBA drop rates again - as some are predicting for either Oct or Nov - and/or the fed lift their rates I think the next move will be down.

However, I have been saying that all year, and been wrong. So why would I be right now?

Blacky

 

me too

 

I was thinking of starting a thread on all the things I have been wrong about:

USD/AUD
Price of OIl
Price of Gold
Sydney House prices

 

me three

 

To change the rate needs an unexpected change. Rate changes down by RBA and up by FED are largely priced in so needs a change in assumptions to move the ER.
I'd be looking more to China economy to improve or deteriorate for an impact on Australian e/r.

 

Despite people who like to sound like they know what they are talking about, it's difficult to predict. Otherwise everyone would. And everyone would be rich

 

Im very aware of my potential to Duning Kruger...even though thats what a person with Duning Kruger would say...arghh ..forget about it.

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

I don't think so. Although RBA is nearing the bottom but fed has a long way to go from here. They are not even started and its impacting

 

Oh yes, there's plenty of that around too
I'm much too good for my opinion of the Aussie $ to possibily be wrong though.

 

I want the $ up. Can you predict a downward move please?

 

I would also like it to go up...
I'm not sure what to do.

 

Anyone want to put a bet on whether feds will lift rates tonight (tomorrow our time)?

If they do it will be a shock to the market, nothing is priced in.
Albiet the market is fairly confident of a rate hike in December (75%)

Blacky

 

I bet our dollar will go up (topic of the thread and all )

 

The little aussie battler had a nice rally today, pegging back some risk aversion as all markets are now indicated no fed rate rise!

Doesnt do me any favors - but Im sure some people will be happy about it.

Blacky

 

Rate rise is now fully priced into the market for the feds to lift rates. Currently about a 95% probabilty according to the 'market'.

There is as close to a zero percent probabity of the RBA cutting rates in December as you can get.

USD has seen an rise in value over this past week. It lifted to a 14year high mid week.
AUD has slipped against the USD from about 75.8 to 73.3 during the week.
AUD has slipped against the GBP from .61 (1.64) to .59 (1.68)

Blacky

 

Lol Janet Yellen's quote at her speech this week on the 17th regarding Dec rate rise and not wait until after January inauguration "its going to be a **** show for many months so lets go once now at least"
(or words pretty much to that affect )

 

rate rise this year is almost definite with rising wages and GDP figures rebounding in states


With the unprecedented bond rout happening, funds are preparing to position themselves for the end of ZIRP environment, the carry trade to asia-pac economies will continue unwinding as funds flow back to USA.

AUD likely to continue going down.