Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community

Australian Cash Rate as at 31 December 2015

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MarkB, 7th Jul, 2015.

?

What will the RBA Cash Rate be as at 31 December 2015

  1. 2.50% or higher (+50 bps or more)

    1 vote(s)
    3.3%
  2. 2.25% (+25 bps)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 2.00% (no change)

    10 vote(s)
    33.3%
  4. 1.75% (-25 bps)

    15 vote(s)
    50.0%
  5. 1.50% or lower (-50 bps or more)

    4 vote(s)
    13.3%
  1. MarkB

    MarkB Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    180
    Location:
    .
    What's your thoughts on the foreseeable (if indeed it is) future direction of the cash rate?
     
  2. MarkB

    MarkB Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    180
    Location:
    .
    RBA Shadow Board (ANU initiative). (This was written before yesterday's announcement)

    The Shadow Board’s confidence that the cash rate should remain at its current level of 2% equals 57% (down from 60% in June). The confidence that a rate cut is appropriate has increased from 2% in June to 8%; conversely, the confidence that a rate increase, to 2.25% or higher, is called for has decreased from 38% in June to 35%.

    The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2% equals 24% (23% in June). The estimated need for an interest rate increase lies at 69% (76% in June), while the need for a rate decrease is estimated at 6% (3% in June). A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence in a required cash rate increase equals 77% (down from 81% in June), in a required cash rate decrease 4% (2% in June) and in a required hold of the cash rate 19% (up from 17% in June).
     
  3. MarkB

    MarkB Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    180
    Location:
    .
    Despite how the SMH headline reads - "Unemployment rate rises to 6%" - the figures were better than expected.

    +1 arguments against a rate cut.

    But time will tell.

     
    WattleIdo likes this.