Australia - really?

Firstly, there are some very good points why Australia will continue to rise in the next decade and beyond. And I am glad we are having this intellectual discussion.
Thank you contributors!

This post is not just the mundane talk, "I have 200k where should I invest or below the belt stuff"
But something to keep us thinking and adjusting our sails to the tailwinds.

As a student of Finance and with a 22 year career in Treasury & banking (including having worked for Lehman bros and Bank of China) projects on Liquidity & Risk management I am bound to come up with these curve balls. Happy to challenge old ideas and to climb the hill to get newer perspectives.

Cheers,
GC

 

Oh no! I am a resident of Sydney Hills district for way too long - since the old Windsor road was a single way and much before Norwest Business park was even built.

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I'm pretty sure there ain't no madams on this forum.. Well..you never know I suppose...
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=madam&amp=true

 

Hahaha, I like the way you say it, you never know. Property investors is a mixed bred.

 

We have the Hills Hoist. Still made in Adelaide.

Where would we be without Speedo's? It would be one thing to catch a glimpse of a commonwealth games swimmer, but I don't think humanity could handle Tony Abbott emerging from the surf sans budgie smugglers.

 

asia is not made of china & n.korea..

and if ur in a corrupt country in asia & makes lots of $$ u dont have to worry about cops, thats the whole point of corruption and as far as i know only country in the world who hand out death sentence for corruption is china. the rest the laws are simililar/equal to australia, but hardly policed to the extend of 1st world countries.

 

And even of they are policed, a 20 under the table will buy you the justice you want....if you know what I mean...

 

ahaha first of all its not policed.

2nd.. 20 under table ?? you thinking corruption for a parking fine ?

OP is talking about the whole economy of a country and continent.. how about billions ?

 

Australia has a relatively small population with lots of resources, rule of law and stable environment. We dont need to be world class to do well. Pretty good is fine.

 

Simple summary would be
AUD == iron ore/coal prices
Economy = how much China is buying from us and how their economy is doing.

Since no one can predict where commodity prices are headed, no one can predict where our economy will be in a decade. China has been a really supportive customer the past 2 decades since they started modernising in 2000, how lucky we get really depends on how China maintains its growth.

In the short term, we might have a correction in syd/melb property market, but RBA has 1.5% to go, and our debt to GDP ratio has room to expand as well and we still have triple AAA rating.

Most of the past riches have been used in things like welfare and not saved up whilst gov piles on debt. We should already have a big sovereign wealth fund like Norway or Singapore does and minimal debt had there been better management. Canberra has been in quite a mess in recent years as well. [will we wake up tomorrow and find that the PM is going to be changed again? ]

Looks like things will be flat and go sideways in the near term though...

 

No doubt Australia provides great lifestyle as been mentioned by OP, but look at this.



Which countries do migrants want to move to?

 

It is not the cops you have to be afraid of, it's another more corrupted official who can eat you up. Eg., the next president to come in to take your place. You will find that the person who prosecute you and expose your corruption is the one who take over from you. That's the worry. Maybe why one country recently ensure the presidency has not expiry date. Another one make sure he swing between being Prime Minister and President.

 

US export of services = $700B, AU export of services = $45-50B, US export (services) is 14 times AU. US population is 13 times AU. Comparable numbers. Pretty good.

 

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almost all asian countries does not have a maximum term for leaders, including china. president xi made sure of it .

they all are in it together.. u only see problems if u step out of line.. if u money grab your good.. only get into trouble if u power grab..politicians cant arrest and prosecute people, the justice system does.. u control the justice system u control the politicians,

 

I hear this at the top of every cycle....the Sydney market will correct and then lie dormant for another 8 plus years...with the correction and inflation properties will become affordable again.

Just a normal cycle.....it is now Brissie's turn..and then Adelaide..Perth..this is how things work.

I have lived in America....the price of property bar the larger cities like LA, SanFran, Seattle, NY, Boston which have cycles like Sydney and Melbourne...the other cities prices hardly move. that is the median from 20 years to now...despite a GFC...

 

Putting trillions of dollars in a low tax/no tax environment is a problem, not a solution. But then in the funds were invested in Australian business start-ups, research and development, and innovation then the "problem" could become a solution.

 

We produce things that could make us money but don't capitalise on our opportunities because we have had it too good for too long.

For example, the middle east has money and needs water and Australia has developed a technology that can produce pure water from sea water without electricity! This should be a slam dunk for sales to the middle east. We should be selling this thing all over the world.

World's first wave-powered desalination plant now operational in Perth | www.engineersaustralia.org.au

@GentleChief, this is what Australia does. We innovate.

 

@GentleChief

This article backs up my view that Australians innovate. If you compare jobs in "Professional / Technical" between 1985 (273k) and 2017 (1.02m) I think that is the second fastest growth for a category.

"A more educated society, together with the rise of the consultant, is helping drive very fast growth in the vaguely named "professional, scientific and technical services" sector.

This includes everything from lawyers, engineers and architects to designers and computer programmers. It's now the second-fastest growing sector in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT, behind health."​

Australia is nearing 1 million new jobs in 5 years — here's what that looks like

The Australian economy is transitioning from goods based to service based. A transitioning economy probably would not be so strong while the transition is happening.

 

Australia should be very proud of being a services economy. The economy where 70% GDP comes from services alone is the way to go as in every other developed economy.

If someone tells you we are not doing enough manufacturing ... turn your face on them. They know jack ****.

 

with all due respects,
I am not sure about this,
as I think, this is the one of the key underlying problems.
Relying solely on Commodities or Services.

We can not turn a blind eye to what's happening in the world today..
and for Australia for the coming generations.
Our kids, and theirs.
And pretend that it is all going to be fine for them, just because we were...
it's not going to cut it anymore.

Innovation, Manufacturing and Services can only go hand in hand,
what are services without the underlying drivers of the economy?

I can't serve a bottle of wine for $1 wages to a consumer, without the customer making $3 from something more valuable. What is the value-add that we bring to the table...

We don't only want to be a nation of servers. Or do we.
With our Intellectual capacity as a nation. We can strive and do better is the point.

We want to be innovators... to grow bigger,
away from the mindset... to just serve tourists, (humbly)
whilst the world makes big strides ahead...
when our xyz makes $30 an hour whilst the world's xyz makes only 10 or even less.
It's only a matter of time before the wage gap decreases due to influx which is inevitable due to factors of globalisation, as we have seen since the turn of the century perhaps.

Thoughts to provoke, not aimed at anyone or any trade....