Australia doesn't have a housing affordability crisis

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Blueskies, 25th Jul, 2018.

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  1. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    Not a bad article, I particularly liked:

    "Should we be turning housing policy on its head to cater for the few by meddling with the market that could potentially have significant impacts on the many?” he asked.

    “Or should the few learn to suck it up, grow some b*lls, lower their short term expectations, start saving and become rentvestors or learn to live with a bit less for a little while to get started?”"

    ‘Do we really have an affordability issue? Yeah, nah’

    Cue chorus of outraged replies from millennials choking on their smashed avo lunch...
     
  2. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    I could pull that entire article to shreds. It's based on someone's experience rather than looking at a market, or markets, as a whole. Barely a fact to be found.
     
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  3. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    Not all of life's questions require a stack of facts and data to support. More a question of peoples attitude. Some will say the system is broken others will work with what they've got.
     
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  4. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    I've met "business owners" that told me just that, it's all about being positive, and feeling good. Without exception, they all ended up worse off than if they never started.

    I never trust a business case that has no facts to back it up. I note that highly regarded business people on Shark Tank take the same approach.

    I'm not questioning that someone has done well out of property. However, to just tell people to suck it up is not a solution. It is naïve and potentially misleading.
     
  5. LVR

    LVR Well-Known Member

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    Every time there is Government intervention in the property market - it ends in prices not going down.
     
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  6. LVR

    LVR Well-Known Member

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    I think the key is to adopt the attitude that you need to knuckle down and find ways to save to achieve the first property.
    I agree; saying "suck it up" is not the solution - but it is the starting line for anyone who is thinking they cant/won't ever get there.
    Of course; they then need the "this is how you do it" instruction book to go with the "suck it up" book.
    Problem is; how many of us know horses which were led to water and then wouldn't drink?
     
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  7. dengus

    dengus Member

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    I just choked on my Spam sandwich. Maybe I need to cut back to baked beans, or maybe bread and dripping.
     
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  8. Justin_Z

    Justin_Z Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    When it comes to policy that impacts on practically everyone, you would hope that it's based on facts and data. The alternative are commonly referred to as flat earthers and anti vaxxers.
     
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  9. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    It is inaccurate to suggest that the current "affordability" crisis is going to affect the young. With so many young, and not that young, people renting and sharing space, it's an affordability crisis more likely to affect older people as they have greater exposure to housing. Most young people will do better out of an affordability crisis.
    Worst case scenario for young people means going bust, and waiting a few years. For older people they do not have the same options.
     
  10. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    Ok, I have a supporting fact: every single time a house is sold, there is a buyer on the other side of the transaction for whom the price was affordable.

    Hence, 100% of the houses sold in Australia in the past 12 months have been affordable (+/-1% at a 95% confidence interval)
     
  11. Gestalt

    Gestalt Well-Known Member

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    Good grief, can we come up with a new cliche please?

    Even the guy who came up with the "smashed avo" phrase (Bernard Salt) is sick of it.

    And lay off the millennials (no, I'm not one).

    I have a number of that generation working for me in my team at work, wonderful people all of them with many commendable qualities.

    Despite being financially successful myself, I'm not devoid of empathy for those who struggle to get on the ladder in one of the most expensive property markets on the planet. Owning property doesn't require any of us to look down our noses at those who aren't so lucky.
     
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  12. ymmf

    ymmf Well-Known Member

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    It is not about affordability. It is about value. Of course I can afford a run-down house in the Blue Mountains tomorrow. But do I really want to commit myself for most of the rest of my working life on this (+ 3hr commute daily until I retire)?
     
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  13. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Younger generation of Australians face life as 'permanent renters'

    "For example, in 1981, the median mortgage for 25-34-year-olds was only 17 per cent of their household income, but by 2011 that was already 25 per cent.

    "They borrowed a lot more to achieve a similar home purchase than their parents would have 20 or 30 years ago.

    "Back in the 60s and 70s and 80s you didn't have to have a dual income to become a home purchaser, now it's virtually an essential requirement."

    Professor Burke said single-income households had been almost cut out of home ownership.
     
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  14. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    is it plausible to remove the idealogy that Oz is unique ?

    i dont know of any city in a developing country that doesnt have the same issue

    can a FHB from the 70s buy in the same demographic in 2018.........


    ta
    rolf
     
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  15. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Just because some people are buying Ferrari's doesn't mean that they're affordable.The point about affordability isn't that nobody can afford to purchase houses it's that a large and growing number of residents can't. However, I can't see house prices getting more affordable in the future without Government intervention, which would be politically unpopular.
     
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  16. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    No. I’m always at least a year behind with the current trends. I only just found out what netflix and chill means.

    Also, I find it ironic that you are asking for my catchphrases to be more up to date yet you use the phrase “good grief” circa Charlie Brown in the 1950s
     
    Last edited: 25th Jul, 2018
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  17. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    Just out of curiosity what was the average duration of home loan mortgages in the 70s and 80s .
    You hear some people talking about 40 year home loans of late , which just seems ridiculous
     
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  18. Bender12

    Bender12 Well-Known Member

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    Same with Porsches. They are affordable, just not by me :)


    Edit: ah already mentioned by @2FAST4U
     
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  19. ChrisDim

    ChrisDim Well-Known Member

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    In the 70's my dad bought a house at Alexandria in Sydney for 15K and everyone thought he was just crazy to borrow that kind of money!

    In the 80's, we were renting a 2 bedroom unit at Marrickville which sold for 80K and again everyone was saying "how can anyone ever afford this"?

    In 2004 we bought our house for 670K (not the beautiful one in my photo btw :) - that's someone else's) and in all honesty I thought it would take me a lifetime to pay it off! It will not.

    Similar stories from Melbourne where 6-7 years ago 2 bedroom units in working suburbs of Brunswick (4K from the CBD) were selling for under $200K and "only few could afford".

    The point is that it's always been hard to buy your first property. It takes plenty of patience, discipline with your money, small starts and.. some compromises. There is plenty of affordable housing in outer suburbs right now in Melbourne or Sydney (I am sure other places as well) - which cost $400K, $500K, $600 which in 15 years will be worth double that!

    That was the case then, this is the case now. And this is what I am telling my kids now. Yes, being able to afford a 1M-2M house when they get out of school, will never happen. But saving and buying an apartment - a few short years later - somewhere in the outer suburbs, is entirely possible...

    that's just my view ;)
     
    Last edited: 27th Jul, 2018
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  20. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    I don't know of any city (if they exist, they'd be very very few) that has comparable prices to Sydney for housing that is 30-50km from the main city centre. (Before anyone tells me that not everyone works there - that's irrelevant. It is generally the biggest thing that influences prices so is great for comparison). Everyone in this debate always talks about the blue chip areas when even these are comparatively very expensive