AUD Slip Slidding

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 13th Aug, 2018.

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  1. namrata

    namrata Well-Known Member

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    50!?!? That seems super low. Do we see a bounce back a bit after trade war is done?

     
  2. Woodjda

    Woodjda Well-Known Member

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    It was basically at 50 in 2001. It also dropped massively around the GFC and then rebounded quickly once it was clear our economy was going to be ok. 50 isn't far away if something similar happens.
     
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  3. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Only my opinion ,but after keeping an eye on the shorting on the Euro vs the US dollar over the past month there is a dangerous trend starting for those shorting..
    50 cent i'm not sure it would take or be precipitated by actions and events that are well out of everyone's control ,and the list is endless with Boris the destroyer over the next 48 hours as some have a degree of darkness..imho..
     
  4. bamp

    bamp Well-Known Member

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    Dangerous for who willair?
     
  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Who knows .... lets see how the economy goes? I dont see 50 but??????
     
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I think we need to look in our back yard
    China economy is weakening and our share are taking a beating
     
  7. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    a bit after trade war is done?

    The fight is for global domination / new world order, trade war is just a pretext, call it what but its not going away in a hurry.

    I think its time to preserve what you have.
     
    Last edited: 4th Sep, 2019
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  9. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Iron ore prices and other commodities are coming down. Aud follows.
     
  10. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    That depends on ones decision-making process and also most times can be reflective on the mood of the investor or seller..
    With the dollar who knows,as the scrap gold dealer was telling me this morning as i was sitting in his office while the scales were giving the correct weight he said he cant keep up the demand for gold and it may run like this till late this year no matter what all the gold traders tell you .. then go back to the normal levels..

    But this is what he told me and i quote what he said as i tape everything when dealing with xxx amounts of money and he know that ,the same as the lady standing next to him tapes everything ..
    xxxquote..
    Sometimes with excessive optimism it can mean overpaying --like he may have paid this morning --and excessive pessimism means selling at the wrong time as both mixed can be bad decisions..

    imho..
     
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  11. namrata

    namrata Well-Known Member

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    It Is more than just the ore pricing. Gold is up 20 % from last year at this time. China's consumption has gone down because of the trade war. Manufacturing in general has slowed down even before the trade war. On top of the fact that there was a spread between the Australian interest rate and the American rate. If you are an investor and you can make an extra percentage point elsewhere - where do you think you will put your money.

    Plus a housing market that is on the decline due to restricted lending in a country where the housing sector makes up a significant portion of GDP. Now compound all of these things together and you will get a depressed currency.

    I don't see it going as low as 50 anytime soon but I also don't see it going to 80 like it was 15 months ago either.

     
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  12. Dean Collins

    Dean Collins Well-Known Member

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    Yep made a big move within 12 hours of the china/usa tariff "easebacks".

    Im not sure a deal is going to get made or not and to be honest $US still high enough that pretty good deal for us sending money back - but i figure $A still going to go lower end of this year with RBA dropping another 1/4pt even if a China tariff deal gets made (which the press here in the usa is now talking about being an "interim deal" and the real deal eg IP etc....wont get done until post 2020 Nov elections).
     
  13. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Just delaying tactics from China side, hoping trump will lose next election.

    No way will they do a deal that includes IP protection. That would get a lot , if not all of their companies in big trouble and cause chaos within.

    I would be very surprised if an interim deal is made...
     
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  14. namrata

    namrata Well-Known Member

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  15. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    Though the AUD has weakened, so too have AU mortgage interest rates dropped at the same time. So, for those of us making IP plays in the US (especially buy and hold plays...) It's actually a win, because:

    - yes, the weaker AUD sucks on the way in (as in, the one time initial purchase price of the US property)
    - but then, the funds used to purchase that US property cash-outright, would have come from an AU mortgages offset account. Since that AU mortgage rate is lower and lower due to reductions in IR's, it means that the 'cost of this money' you extracted to buy the US property, is also cheaper. This somewhat offsets the initial purchase price being slightly higher in AUD due to weak AUD
    - from there on out, it's pretty awesome having a weaker AUD. Every month I earn rents in USD. I can then choose when I wish to bring these funds back to Australia. I can wait and time it of course to take advantage of weak points in the AUD.