AUD Slip Slidding

Anyone play in the money game.... short??

The Australian Dollar is Today's Worst Performing Major Currency, and Turkey is to Blame


Australian dollar falls to an 18-month low as Turkish tensions rise

 

Rest of the world fearful of our personal debt levels it seems. Probably recounting their experiences with the GFC and thinking it will be similar here (which is incorrect I think but anyway).

Well I sold some US shares a while back. I suspected the dollar would go down a fair bit, so left the money in USD. Now up about 15%, more than I ever made on the shares!

 

I am playing with USD

 

A result of European banks coming out & saying its worried about debt levels & exposure to Turkey. Amplified by Trump continued threats to increase tariffs by $200bn. Might see AUD slide to <70 soon.

 

The AUD has been slip sliding for well over 12 months, its been a roller coast ride
From 1.10 to 73 today

My thread Australian dollar will show you what has been happening

Depends what you read, but some economists are expecting AUD to hit mid 60

Winners and losers? Drop in AUD may help business’ be more competitive

Travelling o/seas. ....ouch

 

By Christmas its highly possible that the US fed and RBA spread will double , which just makes the AUD very unattractive.
It will also put a lot more pressure on Countries like Indonesia and India that are already seeing their currency suffer and higher interest rate movements.
It will be interesting to see if it flows back to China and affects their economy , all at the same time their is a trade war going on.

 

EUR AUD rate not changed much this year, I bought some more Euros this morning with AUD at a better rate than a few months ago. So if you are travelling to Europe, not much changed.

 

The slide over a few days has been USD appreciating not Aud falling.

Look at Indias currency against greenback. Record low. So is the Rubel.

 

Maybe things have changed over the last few years , but most stuff that was imported from China and paid for by Australian importers was paid in US dollars.

 

Still correct we pay China for imports in USD

 

Currency war 2.0?
Devalued yuan cushions the impact of tariff hikes on local producers.

 

Just transfered approx....$51000 AUD
Got approx. $37,000. USD .....OM beegeesus

Works better temhe other way

 

Ouch!! Who do you use to change currency? I've just opened a CBA USD account, fee free, but their exchange rate around 68c ATM.

 

Oz forex thet are good

I have USD but I am going hard in US buying up so need more funds

Beauty is you can take 38% to rents

 

Great, thanks

Do me a small favour, just leave a place or two on the market so I can get a foot on the ground in the US haha

 

Also xe trade

 

I use worldfirst, a spin-off from Oanda.
For many years I used their FX trading platform to transfer funds between subaccounts and withdraw "profits" into another currency, zero spread. Unfortunately they banned it eventually.

The US is not at a trade disadvantage, their deficit is due to over consumption, they use more than they produce.

They also have a massive advantage having the global reserve currency, remove that and their economy would collapse. It is something they are very afraid of and attack countries that move away from the us dollar.

 

It will be interesting to see where the AUD will be by Christmas, if the US fed goes ahead with two more interest rate increases.
It might be a bit of a triple whammy for Australia if more emerging markets take a hit to their economy and commodity currencies like the AUD take a hit , at the same time as the cost of borrowing money from overseas goes up , and the cost of imports also goes up, so far I think the AUD is down by about 10% on the USD from late Jan 2018, although in early Dec it was sitting around the 75 mark
Almost forgot about the outlows of money chasing a better return as the US keeps on raising interest rates and ours is dead in the water, which just means more money will probably have to be sourced from overseas.

The Australian dollar's fall is a reflection of a roaring US economy
"So, why has the Aussie dollar fallen so far against the greenback this year?

PHOTO: The Aussie dollar is down, but it's worth keeping some perspective. (ABC News)


It goes back to that comment by BHP's Paul Anderson.

The US economy is roaring ahead, with economic growth in excess of 4 per cent and unemployment at an 18-year low of 3.8 per cent.

Its central bank, the Federal Reserve, has lifted interest rates twice this year and foreshadowed more rate hikes to come.

Rates in the US are now higher than Australia, where the Reserve Bank's official cash rate has been 1.5 per cent for nearly two years.

Big investors, with the power to move currencies, chase high interest rates.

And they prefer to invest in the United States because it has the deepest and most liquid capital markets in the world (ie. they're pretty certain they will get their money back when they want it).

As a result, as capital moves towards the US, demand for US dollars is soaring, putting downward pressure on other currencies.

That's why the Aussie dollar is down and why other currencies are also suffering."

 

I use Transferwise, who offer a multi-currency account. No fees, except for exchanging between currencies, competitive rates, and (eventually) you'll be able to get a Mastercard attached to it.

Oh, and it's got US, UK, EU, and Australian bank details, so you don't get hit by a SWIFT fee getting money into it.

I've also been using Currencyfair, who offer slightly better exchange rates, though I find them a bit less reliable.

(I've got referral codes for both, which give a sign-on bonus on your first transfer. PM me for details.)

 

when I lived in Europe, I used to use this awesome app called Revolut. It took no fees, at market spot rates FX. I used its card for my travels everywhere, as well transferring mula to Oz

Unfortunately its taking its sweet time to become available to Australians here. One to keep an eye out for when it comes

in meantime, I use Transferwise. Its pretty clear on fees and decent rates

 

was planning a trip to the states next year. Might have to change destinations at this rate

Just changed AUD for JPY yesterday for a trip next month too. Really should have done that earlier...