Forex AUD 2020

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by MTR, 5th Feb, 2020.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    if you dont have USD to buy it would be suicide
     
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  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    59

    calling 55
     
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  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Already hit 57.5 overnight ... I think you could be right about 55.
     
  4. Chabs

    Chabs Well-Known Member

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    This AUD going to **** is a concern, I was excited to be buying US stocks if the prices remained attractive. However now I wonder if its worth it at all if you have to convert from AUD to USD with the rate being so unfavourable.

    Whats your thoughts on turning a profit right now or buying well priced assets if your cash position is exclusively AUD...
     
  5. MangoMadness

    MangoMadness Well-Known Member

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    Im wondering the opposite. At what point do I start selling US stocks to take advantage of the exchange rate.

    There are a few things to consider apart from the rate like cap gain, actual share price (they are going down too) etc. but I am certainly keeping my eye on the converted $AU price of the shares and keeping an eye on the fin year cutoff also to possibly absorb some cap gain this year.

    Interesting times :)
     
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    i would not be using AUD with current rate it makes no sense
     
  7. Chabs

    Chabs Well-Known Member

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    Based on previous cycles with the AUD/USD, it looks like it tends to go up significantly once there is a bit more certainty in the market. I am assuming this is because in times of uncertainty the USD is the currency everyone rushes towards, dropping all other currencies in the process.

    Thanks for the advice, i wonder where the opportunities are then. It seems nothing looks attractive in AUS right now, the ASX isn't as exciting as the S&P 500.
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    unless you have an appetite for risk, sit tight and be patient

    i am liking @Handyandy approach, cba at $30-40 could be a nice income earner???. If and when?
     
  9. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Crashed through 57 this morning, now approaching 56.5
     
  10. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    The drop is kind of expected but the rate of decline seems a little bit too much accelerated.

    I think that today's RBA meeting at 2:30 is either going to halt the the decline or it will send the AUD tumbling down to the 40s.
     
  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    approaching 55.5 now
     
  12. MangoMadness

    MangoMadness Well-Known Member

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    That is also my dilemma. Do I hold US trillion dollar company shares with great future forcasts or take advantage of the exchange rate and invest in.....VAS?
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Take advantage of exchange rate, may hit 50 at this rate
     
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  14. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I been calling 50c for a long while now...
    55c today not long now eh, might even undershoot 50c if iron ore prices collapse
     
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  15. rizzle

    rizzle Well-Known Member

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    So if I start loading up on VGS for example, the weak AUD is already priced in so I'm essentially paying a premium after currency is factored in. Is that correct?

    EDIT: VGS = Vanguard All World Excl. AUS ETF fund (domiciled in Aus)
     
  16. MangoMadness

    MangoMadness Well-Known Member

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    My initial tentative plan before all this happened was to sell 10% when the stock hit $AU300. The currency is falling faster than the stock price so I might still get there soon :)

    I still have 3 months of this FY year to make a decision so I can use a low income year to lower the cap gain so no rush
     
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  17. namrata

    namrata Well-Known Member

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    I think buying US stocks right now is the only to make the money back....what platforms does one suggest? How does it work when you have an Australian account with AUD?
     
  18. Momentum

    Momentum Well-Known Member

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    USD at a 2 year low, AUD now 72.5 cents. I hope we're on the way to near parity
     
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  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    parity happened when we had the mining boom, mother of all booms 2001-2006

    USD weaker, interesting times. Election etc
     
  20. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Also in late 2010 through to 2011, hitting a high of $1.10
     
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