Forex AUD 2020

Discussion in 'Other Asset Classes' started by MTR, 5th Feb, 2020.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    MTR, 5th Feb, 2020
    #1
  2. Piston_Broke

    Piston_Broke Well-Known Member

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    Looks like interest rates are getting cut and the AUD will hit low 60s if the US has no change.

    From a TA standpoint If I was trading would be long at 67.1 with a partial TP target of 70 and a longer target of 72.
    So would be betting that the US decreases rates.
    And if trading t bonds I would be targeting a rate of 1.2% on the short side.
     
    Piston_Broke, 6th Feb, 2020
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  3. Archaon

    Archaon Well-Known Member

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    10 year low and seems we are in a slowing economy as well, very little exports to the rest of the world...
     
    Archaon, 6th Feb, 2020
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  4. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

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    Phar Lap, 6th Feb, 2020
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  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    MTR, 20th Feb, 2020
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  6. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    marmot, 21st Feb, 2020
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  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    MTR, 25th Feb, 2020
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  8. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    geoffw, 25th Feb, 2020
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  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Mmm... ok so its dropped again, its heading in the right direction;)
     
    MTR, 25th Feb, 2020
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  10. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    The right direction for somebody who has income in USD and for companies wishing to sell overseas, the wrong direction for the majority of Australians who wish to travel.
     
    geoffw, 25th Feb, 2020
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  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    With everything that is happening corona etc may be a good idea to travel within oz and support our local businesses
     
    MTR, 25th Feb, 2020
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  12. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    We will be travelling within Australia this year as I imagine the majority of Aus. travellers would, I can't see that the USD/AUD exchange rate would have any effect.
     
    turk, 25th Feb, 2020
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  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    MTR, 25th Feb, 2020
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  14. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    turk, 25th Feb, 2020
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  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Right
     
    MTR, 25th Feb, 2020
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  16. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    The price of imports (petrol for instance) would rise.
     
    geoffw, 25th Feb, 2020
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  17. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    That may be what happens in in a high school text book but not necessarily in the multi faceted real world economy( petrol for instance).

    Amongst other other considerations supply and demand needs to be considered.

    Petrol price cycles

    The chart below shows daily average regular unleaded petrol prices in Melbourne over the past 45 days.
    [​IMG]
     
    turk, 25th Feb, 2020
    #17
  18. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Agreed, supply and demand.

    The price paid by the person selling to you will influence the supply price. Other things will influence.

    In the short term petrol goes through cycles. The cycles vary in intensity and frequency across capitals in the short term. In the long term a lot of things influence petrol prices, exchange rate is one of those things.
     
    geoffw, 25th Feb, 2020
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  19. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

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    Oil is tanking (sic) so petrol should remain same or similar price as AUD drops in sync.
    We are an export nation so lower AUD the better, right now especially as farmers recover from drought, fire and floods.
    Mining will boost as well.

    Happy to travel Australia for the time being. OS travel can wait till AUD is strong again.
     
    Phar Lap, 25th Feb, 2020
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  20. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Oil was a bad example, it's obviously quite volatile.

    But pressure will be put on prices of imported manufactured goods, especially as corinavirus appears to be putting pressure on supply chains. That SUV I need to buy to haul my caravan around Australia may well go up in price (depending on other factors of course).
     
    geoffw, 25th Feb, 2020
    #20
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