ASX200 (XJO) 7000 here I come....

"Drifting"

Now back to measuring 'cause that's what we lurve to do. Even if we don't have to do it.

 

Yep, boredom has little to do with it in my case. Was joking in an earlier post.

I remember us back in early 2000 on the Shares Guru forum. If anything judging by our activity here now we still continue to luvre to do it. As for mistakes, diy vs professional portfolio advice / optimal and all that I have no idea. Somehow the end result ain’t too shabby. And we ain’t finished yet.

 

Absolutely. One basis point here, another there. Tweak this, shift to that. Nothing wrong with doing it either if people like it or consider it worthwhile to them.

I know there are funds coming my way later this month so this weary brain will more than likely put some aside on a "for needs" basis and then look to where I will place the rest. Every time I say to myself don't, sit tight but I never am able do that. An irrational and compulsive nature which would probably dive an FP nuts.

 

But importantly cash does get invested even if not always by perfect periodic DCA standards. Actually you’re far more disciplined than me in that regard. Maybe by your age I’ll achieve same. Even more importantly it gets invested in well diversified, mostly low fee quality LICs / ETFs. Pretty hard not to do well with such as approach.

 

ASX200 (XJO) 7000 here I come..

 

What’s that got to do with our discussion? You trying to initiate thread drift.

 

This was an excellent example from @dunno. It really helps reinforce, with a clear illustration of timing the 1987 crash, my long term thinking.

 

Far be it from me to rail=road a good thread but the question is ASX200/XJO/7000 HERE I COME and as some people get a adrenalin rush from deal--making and their greatest strength is their own strategy..

 

Oh it is too. Sorry I thought I was in a different thread.

 

Perhaps as suitable a place as any for @Snowball ’s latest blog post. One of his best posts to date I think, quite well researched. Definitely worth a read including the comments.

Is the Sharemarket Dangerously Overvalued? - Strong Money Australia

 

CommSec - Online Share Trading & Investing. Start trading today with Australia's leading online broker.

The gold futures price fell by US$10.00 or 0.7% to US$1,515.50 an ounce. The spot gold price was trading near US$1,507 an ounce in late US trade. Over the week gold fell by US$4.35 an ounce or 0.3%. Iron ore fell by US$2.10 or 2.3% to US$88.10 a tonne. Over the week iron ore rose by US$3.70 or 4.4%...

Always pays to stand back and look at everything,as most long term investors never pick a side..imho...

 

So article in AFR this morning, some guy from black rock saying markets will grind up from here because there’s no where for investors to put there money at the moment. Rates will stay low and there’s apparently $73 trillion sitting in low interest environment that will be looking for higher returns.

@Nodrog , I knew you had some cash sitting on the sideline but $73 t is a little much mate.

 

Yeah it’s a bugger. Might have to have another break down the coast. The way I over indulge down there would take a chunk out of that.

Although I’m overweight cash it’s not as if I’m sitting on the sidelines doing nothing. I’ve invested $425k in the last fortnight and at least another $125K is likely to be invested this week.

There are opportunities out there without having to wait for Elliot T Wave to get his act together. I’m just not overly confident one will find it in the Global Developed Index / US at this time. However I may well be proven incorrect which is not unusual.

I’m somewhat inclined to agree with him on the “grinding higher” more so in some markets than others. Again I could be wrong. I don’t know the future but I’m even more inclined than ever to maintain my focus on equity income rather than pinning my hopes on growth during the next decade or so. However this will vary depending on which part of the world one chooses to focus their investment.

I know CAPE is terrible as a timing indicator but it may be helpful in choosing where best to invest one’s hard earned cash for better returns during the next 10 - 15 years. Singapore is looking good, US / Denmark maybe not so good:

StarCapital AG - Disclaimer

For a more detailed Global breakdown by CAPE this might also be of interest:

StarCapital AG - Disclaimer

Not advice.

 

From AFR Stanford Brown's Ashley Owen

 

Yes I have to agree with the article as well. I think considering returns on fixed interest moving forward and the amount of capital looking for a home, equities might not be as expensive as they appear. I think any significant drop will be short lived and will be as a result of the political racket that is going on rather than the market re balancing.

Lets look at it from a different angle. Is it possible that there is shift towards lower investment returns in the future to try and reduce the continued growing divide between those who hold the wealth and the rest of society. Think about it this way, if inflation remains low and investment returns remain low compared to the past that is a good thing for the average person. I say this as there cost of living should not be increasing significantly and the lower end wont be affected much by lower investment returns as they don't hold much investments. For those with excess capital who are looking at building wealth via investing this will slow down the wealth accumulation process.

Maybe this is a way to slow down the wealthy from the continuing to grow there wealth at a rapid pace and allow the average person a breather via lower inflation and borrowing costs.

 

Nope. The wealthy and mega-wealthy will discover other means.

 

I may be wrong but wasn't the pre GFC high driven by extreme optimism and greed. Just looking at XJO it really shot up before GFC.
Therefore continually comparing to it is misleading and unrealistic. Referring to lost decades etc.
It's like the old Thornhill chart where he just removes a year or 2 of data and says "what crash? The worm just keeps climbing higher"?

 

Yes, well observed.

Even simply looking at dividends STW being an ETF for the ASX 200 index we often hear about the large drop in ASX dividends during the GFC. Been guilty of using selective data myself at times to support my view.

Would you really be that upset with the overall upward trend in the dividend chart below? A few blips along the way but nothing to lose sleep over or have your lifestyle expenditure impacted dramatically:


Now here’s the unedited chart for STW. There wasn’t really much of a dip in the long term trend of dividends even with the GFC as shown above. It was more a case of abnormally high dividends during a period of excessive exuberance preceding the GFC. In other words unsustainable abnormal returns:



@oracle posted the other day going into more depth about putting some of the above average dividends during times of excessive exuberance aside for leaner times. The realty is though that there hasn’t been much in the way of lean times in dividends during / post GFC!

That said moving from the above index ETF to an LIC this dividend chart from AUI is a thing of beauty. A dividend investor in AUI would say - GFC, what GFC?

 

What the Hell are you doing spoiling our illusions? Discombobulation is essential if the cunning plan to cause to others flee the market is to come to fruition.

Good pick up on the trend though. I completely missed it and focused only on year to year and not over an extended period. Excellent lesson.

 

I have a feeling next time AUI trades at a discount @Nodrog will find it hard to resist buying it

One of the reasons I have observed AUI’s excellent dividend record is unlike other old LIC’s AUI hardly pays special dividends. Any special dividends it gets it keeps it and uses it to maintain its progressive dividends.

It’s a preference thing. Some investors like special dividends others prefer AUI strategy.

Cheers
Oracle