ASX Shares ASX Stocks Leading XJO

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Alex Straker, 20th Nov, 2017.

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  1. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    XRO Update

    Looking to pick it up possibly a little cheaper now. 3 potential zones, could choose to stagger entries (DCA)...



    XRO ideal price zone 1) $23.80/24.15 and 2) $25/25.35 and outside chance 3) $26.65/27

    Zone 1 and 2 preferred :)


    Timing (Complex correction) 11/12 - 23/12

    Idea fails on weak daily close below $23.25


    XRO Update 8DEC17.png



    Near perfect harmonics, here is the simple view...

    XRO V2 11DEC17.png


    1. Green dashed harmonic lines can cause either temporary pivot or gap and are seen to do so repeatedly in this example.
    2. Larger context solid median line and median parallels tend to cause a more major pivot or gap because they are the harmonics of the previous major pivots.
    3. First of blue timing lines also caused a pivot but corrective downtrend remains intact for now.

    No advice, DYOR
     
    Last edited: 12th Dec, 2017
  2. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    GXY Update

    This has just taken off higher at the first purple timing line :)

    GXY Update 14DEC17.png

    Suspect it may bounce down in to preferred entry zones again, see chart in original post quoted above for the ideal price zones.

    No advice DYOR
     
  3. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    New opportunity - BAL

    Consumer Staples index leading XJO (weekly)

    XSJ Cons Staples 15DEC17.png

    BAL is in the sweet spot....Long Term strength (weekly)

    BAL RRG Wk 15DEC17.png

    and Short Term weakness (Daily)

    BAL RRG Dy 15DEC17.png

    Support and Timing

    BAL ASX 15DEC17.png

    Idea invalidated by weak daily close below $8.90

    No Advice, DYOR
     
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  4. Butterfly88

    Butterfly88 Well-Known Member

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  5. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    @Butterfly88 no such thing as stupid questions ;)

    Almost missed what you wrote BTW you added your text to the quote, might want to edit so it goes in the post itself :)

    Answer is yes these are examples of what I intend to do in the market and for general information and education only. If I don't intend to follow through on an idea myself and it's an answer for someone else I will clearly say that.

    The potential trade area (PTA) usually boils down to a geometrically marked out area in price and time where the expected pattern and structure meet true harmonic lines. Yes what you said is a good summary- the horizontal lines on the chart are the buy zones and vertical ones are timing zones.

    Strong leading stocks will tend to stay in that position for some time overall, but have temporary pullbacks allowing for good entry opportunities. The strategy revolves around gauging long term strength from the weekly view and short term weakness from the daily view as a foundation for the 'edge' then look more closely at the harmonics of price and time to define the expected pivot. The relative rotation (strength) charts are quite easy to use and a great source of truth for those anyone just starting out or with less experience. Learning to interpret all the subtle characteristics is vital IMO.

    The other charting and cycle timing methods you see here are based on market geometry (mostly the work of Elliott wave, W.D Gann and Dr Alan Andrew's & Roger Babson with many, many more modern masters thrown in the mix) however are a very complex skill set and takes many years of persistence to get a handle on properly. I also have a different statistical volatility chart model that has a strong back-tested edge in itself and provides good market filtering capabilities and also confirmation of trade ideas from a volatility viewpoint.

    Let me be very clear that this is not an exact science and you should not rely on my information, simply treat it a learning process to develop something that works for you..... or take the 'free lunches' and run with them ;)
     
  6. Butterfly88

    Butterfly88 Well-Known Member

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    I'm just finding this all so fascinating. Thanks for the reply. May take a free lunch one day...
     
  7. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Good to hear!...and yes it is still fascinating to me after 20 years, in fact much more so now than when I started ;)
     
  8. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    BIG

    (Yep this is the BIG one:D:cool::p )

    Lucky last for 2017

    Weekly view
    BIG RRG Wk 15DEC17.png

    Daily view
    BIG RRG D 15DEC17.png

    Details

    BIG 18DEC17.png

    No advice, DYOR
     
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  9. Kassy

    Kassy Well-Known Member

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    Hi,

    Amateur here, I don't know the lingo so excuse me if I use the wrong terminology in my post. I did a pretend trade on XRO on the ASX, details are:

    13/12/17 @ 1.30pm
    Purchase Price per share = $26.94
    Number of pretend shares bought = 185
    Pretend cost of trade = $15

    I emailed details to my husband, set to pretend sell at either $32 or 22/12/2017. I then revised that to $29 or 22/12/2017.

    It hit $29 early today and is currently higher than that. So I would have sold at $29.

    Today is 21/12/2017
    Pretend Sold share price = $29
    Pretend number if shares =185
    Pretend cost of trade =$15
    Pretend profit=$350

    Not too shabby!

    I'll check tomorrow to see what it could have been if I pretend sold on 22/12/2017...

    Kassy

    Not advice, just pretend lol
     
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  10. Butterfly88

    Butterfly88 Well-Known Member

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    Hi Kassy. Well done! How did you choose your figures? Cheers. Butterfly.
     
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  11. Kassy

    Kassy Well-Known Member

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    @Butterfly88 I tried to get my DH to analyse Alex’s chart etc as he has traded before but he didn’t want to jump into anything just yet. I was at lunch looking at the charts on my phone on the Tuesday 12/12 and decided I would ‘pretend trade’. I set the dates then to buy and sell and thought $32 would be great as the highest it is thought to go according to the yahoo day chart of XRO I was looking at as well (all small on the phone lol). I later had another look at Alex’s chart on a bigger screen and decided $29 as a final price was more reasonable. I emailed DH on the day of the actual trade so he would have a record.
    Be interesting to see how high it goes tomorrow.

    I plan to do a bit of reading over the Christmas break to understand things a bit more and eventually really trade instead of just pretend... :)
     
  12. 158

    158 Well-Known Member

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    Dont forget to give approx $150 pretend to the ATO! :D

    pinkboy
     
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  13. Butterfly88

    Butterfly88 Well-Known Member

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    Hi there Kassy. Me too. What are you going to read? Cheers. Butterfly.
     
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  14. Kassy

    Kassy Well-Known Member

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    Hi @Butterfly88! Thank you for posting to me! :) Related to this, I will be reading William D Gann, “45 Years in Wall Street”, I managed to get it from the library after waiting for it for a couple of days. What are you reading?

    On the subject of XRO, it closed at 28.78 today so I am pleased to have pretend gotten out when I did even if I do owe the ATO pretend money:eek: (looking at you @pinkboy):D
     
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  15. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Updates

    General info - just to be clear these ideas are generally not intended to be day trades, holding time frame can be weeks, months and even years. Try not to sell out too soon the big money is made with patience to capture a good size move and achieve very high rewards based on risk.

    If the long term relative strength on a stock remains high I will campaign continuously in to the same stock for years, building a major position holding by taking part profits off at extensions then re-accumulating more units at each pullback I can find on the chart. The only reason I exited GSW so quickly is because I had that target pre set as limit order due to my expectation and knew it would retrace quickly to fill the gap so best off taking profit then a re-entry on the gap fill.

    Not enough volume of trade in the market at the moment to get too excited about these ideas yet but keep an eye out for volume spikes and increases post Xmas to start driving new trends.

    BAL

    Entries were hit at $10.40 and $10 (average cost $10.20 so far). Hopefully BAL will drop again into $9.40 and I can pick up some more and improve average entry. Good chance it will with market heading for doldrums over Xmas.

    Current price $10.77 (+5.58%)

    BAL 22DEC17.png

    BIG

    Entry hit at $2.95 then took off higher. Again hoping for a drop to $2.80 & $2.65 where my next orders are. Suspect it will :)

    Current price $3.34 (+13.2%)

    BIG 22DEC17.png

    XRO

    Entries hit at $26.95 & $26.77 (average cost $26.86).

    Again hoping for better price average on this one too so patience again and hopefully will drop closer to $24/25 and improve average cost.

    Current price $28.90 (+ 7.6%)
    XRO 22DEC17.png

    GXY

    The cheeky monkey of the group just missed my first entry by 5 cents then took off!!

    Price has just turned down on second timing line so still patiently waiting...

    GXY 22DEC17.png


    Summary Model Portfolio (all entries since thread began on 20 November 2017)

    (All trade ideas were called in advance, posts are time stamped)

    Assumptions:
    • Up to 3 entries per stock ($10,000 per entry) using levels nominated in advance
    • Any levels not hit by price do not count as an entry so a stock may only hit 1 of 3 entries for example and therefore only deploy $10,000
    • Most stocks are still holds, any exits are as given on forum (GSW only so far)
    • Allowance for brokerage per trade of $26 'round trip' factored in even though some stocks have not been sold yet.
    Portfolio Summary 20NOV17.png


    Result: +42.3% in 1 month *


    * No allowance made for CGT


    No advice DYOR
     
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  16. Pier1

    Pier1 Well-Known Member

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    Any updates for this series Alex?
     
  17. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    Quick update - general info only

    Depending on your goals and objectives, best to exercise caution in the short term in particular with accumulating in to US and Australian markets. Expecting some headwinds in the short term and technical signs are showing these markets to be potentially overbought in the short term as well as coming in to strong technical timing areas for a potential leg down. US market is nearing completion of a clearly defined major 5 wave set. Australian market will be impacted if it turns down.

    Long term investors may prefer to simply hold through any downturn and continue to collect dividends.

    Shorter term players should consider at the least placing a stop loss at breakeven or better on any open positions and also taking part profit. I have been deliberately holding off posting any more examples recently for this reason. There have been many potential candidates for good opportunities (for example GSW has now filled the price gap) however it's best to exercise patience and caution in this overbought zone at least until the timing has passed and we can observe the market behaviour at the resistance and timing zones to better inform the next decisions.

    No advice
     
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  18. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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    BAL Update

    Significant price and time target has been hit. Consider closing out position to take profit (approximately 50% in 1 month depending on your exact entry). Alternatively consider taking part profit and setting a stop loss to lock in a profitable position with a free look higher. DYOR

    BAL 23JAN18.png

    Portfolio Current View (assuming close out of BAL)

    Portfolio Update 23JAN18.png

    No advice
     
    Last edited: 24th Jan, 2018
  19. MoneyMan

    MoneyMan Well-Known Member

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    wow, didn't know you were so involved in trading mate! been checking out the other posts too
     
  20. L3ha7

    L3ha7 Well-Known Member

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    Hi @Alex Straker -I found the following statement on Fool.com.au:-

    The Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) share price is over 3% higher at $14.97 despite there being no news out of the infant formula company. However, a positive trading update and guidance increase last week appears to have investors fighting to get hold of its shares. I think it has been a remarkable turnaround for Bellamy’s and there could still be plenty of upside for its shares in the next 12 months.
     
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