ASX Shares ASX Stocks Leading XJO

With tech sector still in it's infancy in big scheme of things, a couple of info tech stocks are looking interesting right now, will get to that in a minute.

Firstly a recap to help understand the thinking - recent example from 22 September posted in 'Who's Buying Gold?' thread, will help to read this first...

Who is buying gold at the moment?

Here is the important chart from that post...



Ahead of time, I gave entry level for NCM 21.10 - 21.60 and likely timing 25-29 Sep (Black vertical lines) with reversal expected by 6 Oct (Purple end of timing zone line).

This is what eventuated...



I recently posted it's now time to take profit (or part profit) of approx 12% (depending on the entry) in under 2 months. Easily a minimum 3 times reward for risk (so far!) even if a late entry was taken waiting until the obvious sign of reversal on 6 Oct. Must have been just a lucky one I guess

Worth mentioning also the whole trade idea was founded on a bullish bias arising from long term relative strength in both Gold sector and NCM




Tech stocks of interest now

Information Technology Sector map shows a lot of standouts and green glowing stocks...



Sector index also in long term leading position benchmarked against XJO and recent sector rotations remain on strong side (green and yellow)...



2 stocks showing long term strength (leading quadrant on long term chart) and short term weakness (lagging quadrant on short term chart). This is the sweet spot...





Support levels & timing just been reached...



GSW ideal price zone $2 - 2.30 (closed Friday at 2.24)
Idea is invalid if GSW makes a weak daily close below $1.90



Lets zoom in on that a bit...



XRO ideal price zone 26.77 - 30.20 (currently 30)

Idea is invalid if XRO has a weak daily close below $26

Only other caveat is that XJO is still in a position where it may form a double top on long term chart. If ASX market suddenly turns bearish, best to stand aside and wait.

Education only, not advice, DYOR

 

Interesting and thanks for sharing. Easy to post your story after the fact, to do so before takes a little something.

Not my kind of investing, still I follow with interest.

 

Depending on the entry level numbers as it is sometimes wise to guard against the other possibility ,which the trend can change from up to down..

Thanks for your inside guide to the way you trade,it's a more potent signal psychologically when you combine your decisions purely on technical analysis then the fundamental analysis becomes less important,myself I just follow the banks ..

 

@Hodor yep this stuff definitely not everyone's cup of T.

@willair True, not posting stop loss suggestions is deliberate because it's a personal thing and not everyone uses them, leave it to individual to do what suits their investment style. Pretty easy to figure out where to put a stop loss from the chart. I edited the post slightly to add a little more detail about where the idea becomes invalid.

 

@Alex Straker Interested to hear your call on NCM for the next few days. Seems to be hovering around the same level for the past few days. I'm not into charting, assume that you think likely downside from here as you're calling to take profit?

 

@pwt yes in short term appears to be end of this W3 for NCM. Exited 2/3 of position and tightened stop loss. Multiple reasons - one of which is the sector index looks also poised for downside technically and has just completed a bearish pattern plus other Gold stocks are showing similar bearish signs..

Be aware also that both USA and Aussie markets are looking a little technically overcooked on a medium term basis again and if the script plays out I expect a small euphoric type ending run up to rough area of 2706 for SP500 and 6145 for XAO at which point if that holds as resistance and certain timing dates I am watching cause a pivot to downside we could begin a more significant retracement. At these timing areas the market will either tend to reverse or accelerate the current trend This should correspond with a quick plunge lower in Gold then as equities turn down again Gold will turn up and begin the next major bull leg.

Personally I will be overjoyed if XAO visits 5500 or below again

Alternative scenario is the market crashes through resistance and the uptrend accelerates.

Plenty of other equities I have on a watchlist, banks are going get really interesting again soon too IMO.

No advice, DYOR

 

Thanks @Alex Straker

Banks have not been well liked by investors lately despite the good dividends. Are you seeing further downward trends or a chance for an uptick? I'm long bank stocks btw, quite like holding them and will probably accumulate more if it comes off a bit more after selling some a month or two ago.

 

Banks falling out of favour is a consequence of tightening credit markets, property market cooling down and CBA scare with their corporate fine. It will only be temporary of course, banks are hard to beat for long term accumulation for income. Expecting a bit lower yet, will post more specifics when time permits.

 

Well GSW rocketing off today.
100% or more since this post, depending on buy in price. I'm sure you'll have an updated chart soon @Alex Straker ?

 

@AlexStraker THANK YOU A THOUSAND TIMES OVER.... you already know I follow you but this market call was sensational.

Holy freakin' cr@p I thought @BKRinvesting was kidding I just made 20k on this and am up over 84% in a matter of days!!

 

@BKRinvesting I will get to the GSW update in a minute, couple of other important things to say first.....

This GWS call has generated a surprising amount of interest, thanks for the members who have contacted me in a respectful way and for the right reasons

For those who have been contacting me just asking for free info - please stop I can't expose here how to find these cycles in advance. I have dropped a few hints around the place and my education site will point you in the right direction. Frankly I am reluctant to share any of 'the good oil' here at all these days after the phenomenal early tirade of abuse I received after openly sharing some of my personal TA work just after joining PC.

Appreciate those of you who are keeping an open mind, however many members here are not ready for the true explanation of growth harmonics as evidenced by the severe negative reaction to my previous sharing of some more in depth TA info on other threads. Some members still delight in letting me know they think this is a load of 'voodoo' despite my repeated posting of time stamped specific information with near perfect price and time forecasts well in advance of the market moves. Someone told me just recently that it is "impossible to forecast market movement, it is all random". Thanks for informing me I'll be sure to keep that in mind next time as I cash in a 100%+ gain in less than a week after market entry.

Obviously using past information to accurately predict the future is a difficult concept and I am the first to say this is not a perfect science and definitely should be supported by FA.

To all the doubters.......

"Heavier than air flying machines are impossible." Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943.

"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home." Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

"The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." Western Union internal memo, 1876.

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." Marshal Ferdinand Foch, French Commander of Allied Forces, WWI, 1918.


"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message
sent to nobody in particular?" David Sarnoff's associates, in response to his urgings for investment in radio in the 1920's


"Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and
the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary rocket work, 1921

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" Harry M. Warner, Warner Brothers,1927

and my favourite one of all.....

"Everything that can be invented has been invented." Charles H. Duell, commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899


GSW UPDATE

Out of GSW the day of the price gap at $4.31. Why get out there??? Already had my sell limit order in place BEFORE the market opened that day. There is a very specific reason pure TA based I did so and I will attempt to explain....

So firstly there are 2 main question that are relevant to this trade:

1. Why did GSM trade so violently to the upside?
2. Where to exit?

To answer the first one, the media is reporting that this sudden price move was due to a potential Amazon deal. Ok so that news appears to be the fundamental view of things but what use is that to us if we only ever hear about it after the fact....there must be a better way.....and there IS.

This gap move is a repeated harmonic fractal of the previous low that began the low of the 5 wave growth pattern (see chart below).

The area inside the small shaded yellow circle is the previous cycle we are repeating. The ripple effect of growth harmonics means the current segment is an expanded version of the previous fractal scaled in this case up to many times larger than the original fractal. More details on the chart...



"It is not what is in front of you that blocks your way, it is what's inside you that holds you back."

 

Sad to hear about the negative reactions,
I personally find your posts fascinating. Ive played with TA in the past with no success, but I am loving the courage you show by posting these calls in advance. Im sure these kind of positive results are flowing into the education you offer.

Good result on GSW, will wait and see on XRO

 

Well, I am no guru or FA, but my amateurish TA review of XRO indicates that it will have a few months of bearish ride! I will be watching from the side how it pans out!

 

Part of the fun of it, no ones knows for sure

Cool I would love to check out your reasoning on that, are you going to post a chart and explanation of your view?

 

My reasoning is based on a number of technical indicators such as the cross over of moving averages. They all point towards a bearish trendand hence my conclusion. I prefer not to reveal my suite of indicators for once shown it can be followed by others and will only reduce its efficacy in future use. Such is the limitation of technical indicators!

 

Thanks for sharing your view but that doesn't tell me anything about why you have a bearish outlook.

 

We all speculate based on past experience, some a little better with probabilities in complex situations! It is alright to speculate reasonably and to treat your capital with respect!

 

@Francesco Yes agree, HIGHEST priorirty in all investment/trading decisions is managing risk and preservation of capital.

 

GXY getting interesting again.

Materials sector rotating in strength long term (benchmark XJO)


GXY long term strength also


And short term weakness


Context on chart is a W5 trade beginning from end of W4, will need to take profit at end of W5 to avoid sitting through another retracement.

Details on chart


No advice, DYOR

 

Thanks for taking the time to post.