ASX Shares ASX Index, when will it be the bottom?

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by iloveqld, 27th Mar, 2020.

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  1. Handyandy

    Handyandy Well-Known Member

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    Handyandy, 30th Mar, 2020
    #21
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  2. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

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    It appears like the government has fired their big shots to support the economy already, and the resultant rebound is pretty miniscule compared to the drop since Feb. There's a lot more bad news coming ahead in the next few weeks and months. How many more shots do the government have?
     
    mrdobalina, 31st Mar, 2020
    #22
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  3. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    :p

    Almost subtle but not quiet subtle enough.
     
    SatayKing, 31st Mar, 2020
    #23
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  4. Willy

    Willy Well-Known Member

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    I was commenting on the phycological perception of risk. There was very little discussion about the risks at record highs but after a 30% correction everyone wants to talk about the risks.

    Willy
     
    Willy, 31st Mar, 2020
    #24
  5. Willy

    Willy Well-Known Member

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    Have you been hacking into my comsec account?
    That all sounds suspiciously familiar!

    Willy
     
    Willy, 31st Mar, 2020
    #25
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  6. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    AD35C723-81BA-4CBD-9FC7-A3A93D8338C8.jpeg
     
    Nodrog, 31st Mar, 2020
    #26
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  7. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    My concern now is the same as it was when prices were at record highs.

    Newbie: "wow record highs, is it all blue sky from here, I have FOMO and want to make some money now"

    Also newbie: "wow, market is down 30%, there are bargains everywhere, I have FOMO and want to make some money now"

    Neither of these is a good approach IMO.

    DCA and a long term view of investing is a sensible approach - especially for newer investors who don't necessarily understand how the market moves or have a workable strategy for timing the market (because even many experienced investors still make mistakes when trying to time the market).

    But again, DCA doesn't work with a short term view - the volatility can still wipe you out over the short term.

    For example, if you want to try and take advantage of lower house prices in 12-18 months time but don't have enough of a deposit yet, DCAing into the market right now to try and increase your deposit is not a good strategy. DCA doesn't cure all ills over a short time frame.

    It's all about WHY people are wanting to put money into the markets now - what is their motivation, what is their end goal and what is their timeframe for achieving that?

    Risk isn't about whether the market is at record highs or whether it has dropped 30% - it is about whether your investments will help you move closer to your goals - or take you further from them, in the timeframe over which you want to achieve them.
     
    Simon Hampel, 31st Mar, 2020
    #27
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  8. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    As many shots as required. They will spend and spend and spend. Josh f even said there will be more.
     
    Barny, 31st Mar, 2020
    #28
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  9. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Thats one of the unknowns. A government that issues its own currency can do unlimited stimulus. And before someone inevitably cries 'weimar republic', clearly countries have managed to do QE without causing inflation. Its a possibility, but not inevitable.
     
    Trainee, 31st Mar, 2020
    #29
  10. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Bounce
    Bounce
    Bounce
    Bounce
    Bounce
    Bounce
    Bounce

    That's one amazing cat.
     
    SatayKing, 31st Mar, 2020
    #30
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  11. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    The only thing more amazing is the headlines, many articles of which written by the same person(s)
    Asx adds billions in morning trade, last fortnight, this is the end greedy shareholders will be flown to mars etc etc... it’s like watching the tennis from behind the chair umpire.
    Look left, look right, look left ......
     
    Silverson, 31st Mar, 2020
    #31
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  12. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    E462914F-EB2F-4810-9FD1-34FF66F3FEA3.gif
     
    Nodrog, 31st Mar, 2020
    #32
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  13. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    I've no idea what the headlines are. Haven't bothered reading business media much for a few years. Same with what is actually happening with the market or particular shares I hold. Have spare cash, go in, buy what I want according to my preferred asset allocation then get out until next time.

    If I followed the panic, excitement and other emotions I'd more than likely end up broke and on welfare. Could still come to that but, hey, I'll be in good company.

    Did the post as I saw the term mentioned a few times on the forum and for some reason it appealed to my twisted sense of humour.
     
    SatayKing, 31st Mar, 2020
    #33
  14. blob2004

    blob2004 Well-Known Member

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    I'm still baffled at the people who think the market will go down just because of more deaths, unemployment, business bankruptcies, etc...who doesn't know that will happen? It's already priced in.

    The market is forward looking and the reason it may go down further will not be because of the obvious reasons everyone is thinking about now. Unless you have some special insight that none of the professional analysts do, then common sense is just DCA as normal.

    Plus, the market rebounds before the worse part as it is forward looking. If you think the worse is yet to come, the market knows that and may already be going up.

    I personally feel this is a dead cat bounce but I don't invest based on instincts.
     
    blob2004, 31st Mar, 2020
    #34
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  15. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

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    ASX 5,325.80

    The market is going up today after all stimulus, we all need a good news for a vaccine to fully turn away from bottoming, and we don't want to face another China Virus rebound.
     
    iloveqld, 31st Mar, 2020
    #35
  16. # 1

    # 1 Well-Known Member

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    That cat doesn't look dead

    Lots more pain on the way according to some

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334820-next-leg-down-another-massive-decline-is-coming

    Summary:

    The next leg down in the current bear market cycle is soon at hand.

    The forthcoming economic and financial crisis will be more severe, by far, than any in US economic history since the Great Depression.

    During the next leg down in the ongoing bear market, the value of the S&P 500 index is likely to decline a minimum of 26% from Friday's closing level.

    Extremely severe declines, surpassing those experienced during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, are a distinct possibility
     
    # 1, 31st Mar, 2020
    #36
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  17. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

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    mrdobalina, 31st Mar, 2020
    #37
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  18. iloveqld

    iloveqld Well-Known Member

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    Today definitely a dead cat bounce from 5181 to 5365 and closed at 5026.
     
    iloveqld, 31st Mar, 2020
    #38
  19. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    So another 25% drop from current levels?
    Buy in regular chunks over the next 10-12 months, and will be sitting pretty coming out the other side.
     
    Trainee, 31st Mar, 2020
    #39
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  20. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    18 months is the current estimate :rolleyes:
    So anyone thinking things will return to previous highs anytime soon will be disappointed o_O
    I'd say closer to 3 years to reach previous highs :(

    They will likely spend even more of the taxpayer dollars, taking us so far into a debt that it will take 50 years to get back into surplus :(

    Find myself wondering why they didn't just freeze everything like Italy did :cool:
    Not a $750 handout & also double the dole (what for sitting on the couch :confused:)

    All these people with bank accounts read the account name, it's a "savings account" :p
    Not just button 2 on the eft machine :oops: (that should say "spendings" .......)
     
    Stoffo, 31st Mar, 2020
    #40
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