Are we heading towards a recession

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 6th Jun, 2019.

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  1. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Nah, political parties just need to come up with GOOD policies and ‘sell’ them to the Aussie people.
     
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  2. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    True I didn't provide any statistics to back up my claims and indicated that I couldn't. Still at no point did I say we should stop all immigration. I do think though that with wage growth being an issue for the past 10 years and the prospect of rising unemployment it is reasonable to look at the supply side of the labour market. This also means that we should invest more in VET training and less in universities.

    Here's some recent data from seek. Note how many professions are also classified as having "skills shortages"

    q34r3.gif
     
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  3. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that diagram proves what you think it does.
     
  4. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    What do you think "I think it proves"? Because I don't think it proves anything. Stop implying I speak in absolutes because I don't.

    But I am truly interested to hear your thoughts on my comments.
     
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  5. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Governments are not the same as households and companies.
    Governments create cash money. They have a monopoly over that.
    Why should we judge a government for borrowing money? After all, it will be the Government that prints the money that pays for that.

     
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  6. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    If we're heading into a recession or a downturn, what do you propose we do? Sell everything? I recall the wise words of Gerry Harvey a few yrs ago and I quote:

    "Interest rates, I think, are heading to zero, and the inflation rate does not look like being very high for a long time so why would house prices crash? There is no guarantee it will fall at all. All I know after looking at the economy for 56 years now is that things always come back and exceed their highs some years later".

    Anecdotal and simplistic I know, but whether there is an impending recession or not, it hasn't and won't change my approach ie shore up the balance sheet by either paying down some debt or sell a couple of props if I have to but beyond that, it's business as usual.

    Betting the farm on a particular outcome and going full hog on either side of the spectrum is foolhardy if you ask me. You could just stick your money under the mattress if that makes you feel safer but that's not how I play this game. I invest in property bc I'm bullish on the LONG TERM fundamentals. If not, why would you be on this site?
     
    Last edited: 8th Jun, 2019
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  7. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    this is amazing. Been looking for something like this for ages! Especially the bit about the government is not a household - that thought process needs to die and not be encouraged by politicians!
     
    Last edited: 8th Jun, 2019
  8. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    So after what felt like being accused of a being a racist I decided to look it up. Note both of my parents were migrants to Australia so I'm not out to blame migrants for anything. In fact I am not accusing anyone of anything. I am just saying here is an example of how wages can be increased through adjustments to the Labour market.

    Plus as I said earlier the Labour market is more than the number of people but also their skills. Which is why we should re-examine how we fund tertiary education.

    Wages show fastest rise in almost a decade

    Here are some choice quotes for you.
     
  9. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Okay here's how it could work under current arrangements:

    (1) The Government keeps "borrowing" money so it can spend it on infrastructure, schools, hospitals, etc to keep the economy moving. This is done by issuing Bonds to Investors.

    (2) The Reserve Bank (which by the way is owned by the Government), buys these Bonds from Investors in the open market. The RBA does not have to borrow money in order to be able to buy these Bonds. It can just electronically print money (doesn't have to be physical cash) by crediting the accounts of the Bond sellers.

    (3) The Government then cancels these Bonds, and the RBA writes them off. No problem, because the RBA is owned by the Government.

    As long as inflation is controlled through Taxes, the Government can actually create an Endless Money Train for all Aussies to enjoy!
     
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  10. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    Seems like spurious correlation to me. The article itself treats each area separately and none of the authors made the leap that you did, nor did the orginal data when I skimmed over it. Labour market economic commentary - Office for National Statistics
     
  11. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    I'll need to read more about MMT. Funny video linked off that channel about deficit owl.
     
  12. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the data you linked seemed to lack correlations between almost any of the data points. And on third reading I think you are right that the article didn't specifically link the rise in wages to the change in population. However, they did choose it as one of the few elements to highlight in general about an article of rising wages.

    Thoughts on the need to address our tertiary education system? Perhaps you don't agree?
     
  13. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Data are past events. Who cares?What matters is, what do we do next?
     
  14. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    The 10 year-2 year has inverted so probably going a recession. Coupled with trade war, American employment at all time high, it’s definitely recession in 18 months. The hedge fund I run has gone into mostly cash and gold, with a few select picks only, although I am taking the punt and launching a subdivision fund soon.

    On Main St I can tell you businesses are struggling, both through the lenses of my father’s business as a tenant, and also a a landlord (commercial tenants are struggling more).
     
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  15. K974

    K974 Well-Known Member

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    I’m Irish and with all due respect if a recession on a similar scale to ireland (and it won’t ) happed. Here , we have no idea what we are in for . How could we , we’ve had 27yrs of growth.
    There is more money made in recessions than booms, but very few people have the foresight, cash and bravery to catch a falling knife

    Combined with an AUD vs EUR of .8c and an across the board price drop of 50% in ireland up to 80% for the mass produced fringe stuff , huge money was made buying in ireland in 2012. Prices for premium stocks are back , aud is .6c and Rental yields are through the roof. Nothing was built 2008-2015

    Any of you involved in development , I’ll tell you stories about banks behaviour in times of recession that will make your eyes drop.
    If your of the belief recession is aahead Be very careful
     
  16. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Credit is money and banks create credit.
     
  17. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    Past events in other countries provide hints/data on what the outcome of a particular course of action.
     
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  18. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

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    you didn't watch the video, or you chose not to understand it.
     
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  19. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Please ask the banks to use "credit" to build infrastructure or pay for Public Goods without asking anything in return.

    Under the Modern Money scheme, the Government uses Tax not to fund public goods, but to control inflation.
     
  20. DAZ79

    DAZ79 Well-Known Member

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    Not true. The unemployment rate rose consistently from 2008 to 2012/13.

    Didn’t get back to anything like acceptable levels until recently.

    The country was decimated by a massive property bubble followed by years of austerity.

    Even now, Ireland is living with the consequences.

    If anything like that happened here there would be murder.
     

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