Are we heading towards a recession

Afaik inflation out of control, RBA put up interest rates to bring it under control. The brakes were put on too hard and everyone freaked. But benefit was inflation was now in checked and rba worked on a 2 - 3 percent target. The. China boom happened and the rest of mythology was complete.

 

Apparently not....

 

Harsh circumstances makes one stronger combined with problem --solving --skills--asymmetery --hardship--unfairness --- all are sources of unknown pressure and from what ivé seen all my investing life pressure turns coal into diamonds and sadly in the instant social media false world we seem to be forgetting in this great free country..

 

Was I the only one who voted LNP?

I will check with the AEC and find out for you ...

 

How is it measured??

 

Back to the original question...

today i was at my local Westfield...i was sure there were 6 shops that have moved out....

2 shops were converted to a play area (you know how they can hide empty spaces real well with nice comfy chairs )

1 shop was converted to one of these mobile temporary gadget shop

1 was even converted to a giant floor chess piece ..very creative!

You draw your own conclusion...

 

I'll take that comment in the tone I choose to presume it was intended, and well played.

My point is there is this myth that the LNP are better economic managers, but the evidence does not support that on a macro level.

Perhaps ironically, I thought the economic policies touted by the Labor party were pretty stupid, and probably would not have achieved their stated objectives, but the track record stands. LNP are much better marketers though.

Cheers,
Inertia.

 

Michael West has an article on that too...
After Australia's worst two years on record, do retailers see the problem? - Michael West

 

TBH, I find this whole argument about which party is the better economic manager a complete waste of time.

The only way to know would be to vote one of them in, let them run the country for 3 years and see where we end up. Then, take a backup of the world, wind the clock back 3 years, wipe everyone's memories of the last 3 years, put the other mob in for 3 years, see where we end up and then compare the new now with the old now in the backup.

I just haven't perfected all the technology to do this just yet .

You weren't the only one

This time, yes.

Previous election, I would say the ALP, especially with that Mediscare campaign.

Next time, who knows!!!!

 

Nothing new there, Westfield has period of old tenants move out and new one move in for the last 30 years. It is so bad that someone prepared to pay 4% premium to their NTA a few weeks ago

"Scentre has sold a 50 per cent stake in Sydney's Westfield Burwood shopping centre for $575 million.

The deal with Perth-based Perron Group represents a 4.1 per cent premium to the centre's $1.1 billion book value in last year's annual report."

and there is a whole flurry of shop close up in Westfield Sydney Pitt St 12-18 months ago, it now filled with new Tenants

 

Like this:

The Economy of Best Perceptions

 

It's hilarious seeing comparisons of Hawke/Keating and the Labor party of the last 10 yrs.
They would've been unceremoniously thrown out of every meeting for their policies and opinions.

Rudd was the end of the labor party. He killed it, Julia buried it.
The ghost rose from the dead and was promptly buried again by liberal's least likely candidate, Abbott.
I am disappointed that we missed the opportunity of a life time to have an Abbott & Costello government, even if only for a day which would be enough.

As for the 90s, people were living beyond their means and opted for lifestyle above long term wealth.
It's just a matter of time before we see it again soon.
Uber eats is huge.
So many other lifestyle products and services have boomed and many folks don't seem keen to go without.
And so eventually the credit card will run out.
And yet their seems to be so much money that people have to throw around on luxury and sheer laziness.
$100 a week gives a lot of good fresh home cooked food.

 

I think Australia's absolutely heading for recession, and soon. It's been 27 years, it's going to happen, and the economic indicators are looking pretty dire. But recessions aren't the end of the world.

See it as an opportunity.

Look at Ireland. For a start most experienced investors were ok. I had friends who, as long as they'd positioned themselves well, really did do ok. One friend was more or less bailed out by his mum, but most good detached family homes in quality areas did well. The assets that lost most of their value were the newly built fringe crap.

Remember too even a steep drop in the market is an average. You can have a 50% drop in a city, and this can mean half finished projects and dreck at the city fringe go to zero, while decent in demand places take a temporary dip and come back stronger than ever within a few years.

Ireland is going great guns now, and though the recession was the steepest in decades, things turned out ok. It was very temporary. All things pass.

If Australia has a similar crash, it's not the experienced sensible investors likely to see a wipeout.

 

Could you tell us more about Irelands jobs relating to your family/friends/country at the time of recession and throughout. Did many loose their jobs? Move industry/country? How long did it take for employment to come back to full swing. Did employment change as awell? It seems looking at stats here that there's currently low unemployment but underemployment is rising. Was this something that is mirroring Ireland prior to its recession?

 

Really the worst year was 2009. Lot of job losses that year, but I moved to Australia and to be honest mostly heard about them through the news. None of my friends or family lost their jobs, though my brother in law took a pay cut, but he worked for a small business.

I recall one thing sticking out was hearing there were something like 60,000 job losses in the year or something like it, and thinking damn that's crazy high, then realising it meant since the start of the year, and it was only maybe Feb or March at the time. But a lot of job losses were corporate restructures or jobs moving offshore. Obviously with Ireland that's not too difficult, Eurozone and all. Might be harder in Australia for companies just to ay "welp, it's not working out here, let's give Poland a crack" though I might be overstating how easy this was. Lots of others lost in construction which is an obvious one.

From my perspective, the whole crash really lasted a year. I know the housing market turned in 2008, peaking in late 2007, and most jobs were lost in late 2008 or 2009 (going from 5% or so to 10%) but by 2010/2011 the dust had really settled and things did seem to turn around faster than you'd think.

Really though when unemployment rose, it happened very fast. Almost all of it happened within a year.

 

As if Labor can do something to dramatically increase wages? Employers can cut off staff if they're forced to pay higher wages.

And inflation is super low at the momeny. Any major increase in wages will only be eaten away by the resulting higher inflation anyway.

What we need is a Household Debt Detox. People are so indebted compared to decades past, it's making them want to save rather than spend.

 

Dropping capital gains discount would do that. After all, one could argue that changes to cap gains lead to growth of property and given property is one of the biggest debts most people have. But that would be unpalatable wouldn’t it for most people here ....

 

If we wanted to raise wages we could look at limiting the supply of labour. If I am not mistaken wages have been growing in the UK in recent years while their immigration levels dropped. I don't have any graphs to point to sorry but this is from memory of some articles a few months ago.

 

Gawd. some one heard from some else that there was a graph that showed some correlation over a short time scale ... are you serious. Immigrants always cop the blame but rarely is it based on facts or it’s skewed to align to biases.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

European migration has been good for Britain, raising economic performance and improving the public finances, the Migration Advisory Committee revealed on Tuesday following the most extensive research on its effects in a generation. The MAC report showed that not every aspect of migration has been beneficial and gains will not have been equally felt across the British-born population. But the overall impact, particularly from EU nations, has been far more positive than the Leave campaign, politicians and parts of the media generally project.

 

Some good material on the conversation and well worth a subscription.
Business + Economy – Views & Research – The Conversation