Are we heading towards a recession

Unless there are more people than you think who make a living building houses for other people who make a living building houses.

 

It's quite significant. Took up a lot of the slack from the drop in mining.

Anyone got any good macro information on where mining is going? Are the Chinese going to get their minerals from Africa which they are busy buying up? What is demand looking like for the next few years? When will the mining Whiteh come and save us again?

 

China is past its infra spend and already has massive excess capacity which it is trying to export to its BRI partners, many of this countries prefer to use their own mines were they can, For china OZ is currently not a store of choice but rather only for emergency supplies.

 

Ralan Group collapses
More than 3,000 units in limbo as one of Australia's largest property developers collapses

 

People have been staying in their homes longer for the last 15 years. For the government people moving less results in less stamp duty. For real estate agents and surveyors there is less work. Apart from transaction costs people could be living in their home longer as they have their ideal PPOR, as is the case with yourself. However, it could also be that it's harder to climb the real estate ladder so people are spending more time in their homes as they work to pay down the mortgage and create equity. For most capital cities that haven't boomed there is a two speed real estate market. Apartments/Units/Outer ring houses have had minimal growth, whilst houses in inner/middle ring suburbs have done relatively well.

 

I always considered ourselves to be trendsetters but I didn’t know we were 16 years ahead of the race

I partly agree with you but one’s ideal PPOR does change with the passing of time.

In our case, we are reaching an age where we are looking at downsizing (kids left home, moved interstate, married, having children of their own, ...).

We bought our next ideal PPOR in February 2016. Over the last 3+ years ago, we have rented it out and claimed the negative gearing benefits, especially loan interest paid and depreciation.

One day we will sell our current ‘ideal’ PPOR (on acreage) and pay off the loan on our next ‘ideal’ PPOR so we end up with a debt-free home.

Maybe we are setting a new trend but I am sure many other baby boomers are employing the same strategy .

 

Looking at the macro economics indicator from:Australia - Economic Indicators

GDP Growth rate 0.4% < Inflation rate 1.6%
showing that we are already in recession.

Current Account to GDP also still in the negative area means we are in trouble.
Australia Current Account to GDP | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

The 10 Year treasury bond, falling yields reflect a poor economic outlook.
Australia Government Bond 10Y | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

 

If America hits recession shortly, will we follow?

One of Wall Street's favorite indicators of an impending recession — the spread between the three-month and 10-year Treasury yields — just flashed the highest alert for an economic downturn since 2007.

Is a US recession coming? Yield curve flashes dire warning

I'm reading the fed will have to drop rates aggressively shortly to try and reverse the curve. The inverted yeild curve has predicted every recession except for 3, and all recessions have happened within 2 years from first inversion from memory. This inversion date was march 2019, 19 months to go?