Are we heading towards a recession

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 6th Jun, 2019.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,786
    Location:
    My World
    highlighter likes this.
  2. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia
    For the first time in 36 years GDP per capita has gone backwards in three consecutive quarters.
     
  3. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,786
    Location:
    My World
    Yes, 2019/20 not looking great

    What’s scary in Perth is the amount of shops/retail, restaurants closing. Rents, on line shopping, uber eats killing these business’
     
    [d4rk-fr3d] and Ross Forrester like this.
  4. jazzsidana

    jazzsidana Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th Jan, 2018
    Posts:
    459
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Crystal ball going as far as 12months, don't see any recession just yet!
     
    kierank likes this.
  5. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Apr, 2018
    Posts:
    625
    Location:
    VIC
    Hardly. Uber eats is a delivery service if takeaway, a slave labour one at that imo. Discretionary spending is down due to people being worried about a multitude of factors. Government will have to go big on spending to keep things afloat, cutting tax I doubt will flow through in any meaningful way as people will simply put it in offset, as they should. A surplus should have never been on the agenda.
     
    MTR likes this.
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,786
    Location:
    My World

    We have been very fortunate, I hope you are right
     
    Lindsay_W likes this.
  7. Lindsay_W

    Lindsay_W Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    4,982
    Location:
    QLD/Australia Wide
    And Uber Eats hasn't even made a profit yet!
     
  8. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Apr, 2018
    Posts:
    625
    Location:
    VIC
    Ponzi scheme of a company ...only survives on ongoing injections of capital and can't see they making money any time soon. Their products can be replicated by competitors easily.
     
    ms420 and Lindsay_W like this.
  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,786
    Location:
    My World
    Omg
    I dont know what my daughter did before uber eats came along
     
    Lindsay_W likes this.
  10. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    786
    Location:
    A wannabe Mexican
    Same could be said about afterpay
     
    dragon likes this.
  11. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia
    Josh Frydenberg announces the Budget is back in surplus

    Frydenberg was interviewed by Leigh Sales and scoffed at the suggestion that this surplus may not eventuate. The RBA is virtually begging the government to fiscally stimulate the economy.
     
    marty998 likes this.
  12. Lindsay_W

    Lindsay_W Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    4,982
    Location:
    QLD/Australia Wide
    Even their own upper management have said they have no idea when it will be profitable, horror stories from restaurants/cafes who deal with them
     
  13. shorty

    shorty Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,207
    Location:
    straya
    We're already in a per capita recession. I'd say yes
     
  14. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,497
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Online businesses are the way of the future now. If u are not offering a special service or product having physical shop just adds a huge amount of overheads.

    Retailers will sooner or later have to sell via ebay or amazon marketplaces. Restaurants and takeaway places may find their ubereats or menulog business bring in more orders than their physical restaurants.

    WA should be booming though with iron ore prices this high. Maybe its the lack of new mining investment??

    Tbh our employment numbers are more dismal than they show on the surface. More than half of new jobs are part time now.
     
    kingstreet75 and ms420 like this.
  15. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Apr, 2018
    Posts:
    625
    Location:
    VIC
    [
    Don't know enough about them but they don't have immense technology and regulatory costs to try to automate their products. Afterpay will tinker but core of their product is there, for them it's expansion of products into as many retail shops vs zip pay.
     
  16. TSK

    TSK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Apr, 2018
    Posts:
    625
    Location:
    VIC
    I'm not against capital injection to get over that initial period when a business starts but you better have some idea of when you might break even.
     
    Lindsay_W likes this.
  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,786
    Location:
    My World

    https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp...accidental-iron-ore-boom-20190212-p50xap.html


    Its not enough

    Perth property market is still in oversupply, however certain pockets/blue chip areas have bottomed, or stable?? but still not at prices of 2007 when market peaked

    Whats do they say ...... property doubles every 10 years???
     
    muller23 and Silverson like this.
  18. Redom

    Redom Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,607
    Location:
    Sydney (Australia Wide)
    I’ll make another outlier call...this one I have very little confidence in though as it’s far harder to predict than house price activity post rate cuts, but can play out a narrative that supports it:

    - The economy will be signing and dancing again by late 2020. Similar to H1 2018 conditions again. QoQ growth will be a little bit faster than the 0.60-0.70% print the RBA forecast. Inflation and wage growth will remain weak though, so they won’t raise rates from their lowest ever point.

    - The response to this current slowdown is likely to be strong. 2-3 rate cuts, big fiscal stimulus and boosts to lending. It’ll spur confidence and create a bump for activity again.

    - I think the consumer has been hiding under a rock, nervous, scared and has dropped their spending (descretionary) as a result. Soon enough (perhaps already) they’ll get a whiff that there house is worth $100k more again, that they have 3k+ p.a extra disposable income, feel wealthier/more income and start spending. The mining export gas burner will remain, public sector investment will remain strong, construction will take off again, the low dollar will continue to support, etc.

    We are repeating the 2016 response, I can see the results being reasonably similar. 18 months after the August 16 cut we had some stellar growth figures again (relative to the developed world).
     
    Jake Milne, Toon, Blueskies and 3 others like this.
  19. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,497
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Esh, Antoni0, ms420 and 2 others like this.
  20. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,497
    Location:
    Brisbane
    We were in a different credit environment in 2016. Seriously doubt housing sector would get much of a boost this time round. Liquidity from rate drop unlikely to flow as much into property sector. Other asset classes like stocks might see a bigger boost though.
     
    muller23 and albanga like this.