Are more people likely to move to regional areas?

Who would guess sea change back in vogue, or perhaps it never did go out????

 

The NSW regions set to boom due to influx of Sydney residents

 

Never did. The FIRE movement is strong these days. Sell a shack in Sydney and buy a beauty in whoop whoop for a fraction. Live off jobseeker. I am sold

They just need to watch out for coastal erosion. Happening all over the place and it's getting worse.

 

Actually they geo arbitrage and live in other countries and live off their western savings. and generally, rent. Some buy if the conditions are right. Smart. They don't have to stay stuck in a country if the math don't add

 

The move from Melbourne to Regionals currently is "tip of iceberg".


Coronavirus Australia: Melbournians escape virus-riddled city by moving to countryside

 

"Bushfires", they are going to be more extreme and more frequent. It's funny how COVID has made all our memories so short

 

yes you are right

 

Not for a very long time, if ever.

Fast trains work best where you've got our big cities 200 - 400km apart. We don't.

Because of the long distances between our cities our fast trains have to compete not with driving but with flying. Which is a tough ask given flying's faster speed.

There's scope for speed upgrades on shorter sections like Sydney - Canberra, Sydney - Newcastle etc but Sydney - Melbourne would be very expensive for little return.

 

These articles are becoming the hot new clickbait theme. If going regional for the long term - should we be avoiding areas mainly attracting the price sensitive, ageing demographic (declining income) or government handouts crowd?

Been reading some jobseeker and jobkeeper stats published for work and the numbers are very interesting.

For Victoria (June 2020 claims compared to Dec 2019):
- JS claims have risen across all areas, none have been immune.
- Largest increases to JS claims are occurring in traditional "blue collar" and new estate heavy areas - some have gone from 7-8% to 15% of the voting population.
- "upper middle class+" areas have had JS claims increase from 2% to around 5% of the voting population.
- popular regional areas ballarat, bendigo, corio/geelong have had JS claims increase from 5% to 10% of voting population.
- JK claims are largely in line with the above as at May, with the following areas reporting above average claims: 3000+ club: Werribee, point cook, cragieburn, dandenong, cranbourne, and 2000+ club: Ballarat, glen waverley/wheelers hill, richmond.

Understand these are rough numbers but some insights for those looking to do some deep deep diving.

Probably explains why cheaper properties are holding up well. Rents are backed by the government.

 

I don't know....I'm not sold on this new paradigm shift to regional areas. There'll be a few for sure but probably not en masse. Families with kids need good schools, amenities, transport etc.

Most of the people who move out to lifestyle areas do so bc they're downsizing or because, let's face it, its cheaper. The majority who move don't do so bc they WANT to.

 

Post covid I am still bullish on the same regionals (1 from each East coast state) that I was pre as like Online shopping it has just fast tracked us in to the future

1. Noosa
2. Byron Bay
3. Mornington Peninsula (Buy well as close to Portsea as you can afford)

These tick the box as great holiday homes, relative scarcity, immense demand leading among the affluent

The demand is so great that the Victoria government has had to put an incredible amount of resources to stop non locals from going to the Mornington peninsula. Social distancing is not possible there even before COVID during the warmer months

 

I agree with your first paragraph here.

I have friends who have moved rural in the past 3 or 4 years. I bet you most of them will be back in Melbourne once their kids reach primary school age, for those reasons you've outlined above. Access to friends, family, schooling, healthcare etc. etc. Working from home will be far more prevalent, yes, but there will undoubtedly be a rush back to the office and the CBD next year, or the year after at latest IMO.

If we do see huge numbers move out to the country, it will potentially ruin many of those towns within 2 hours of the city. Once those towns get full and property prices jump 50%, they will lose their appeal pretty quickly. Look at what's happening outside of Torquay...kms and kms of new housing developments, shopping centres..... and heavy traffic.

 

Don't really know Victoria but IF I had to dabble in a regional area, I'd pick somewhere in/around Noosa, Sunshine Beach or Byron. Cant go too far wrong with those areas. Having said that, they're already astronomically expensive.

 

I also feel city folk who move out to regionals etc feel the need to justify the move (to everyone)...which tells me they're not convinced themselves. Just hope they're not selling up to move bc that would/could be a mistake they'll never recover from. Seen this first hand.

 

I think regional is different from rural. Regional cities with populations 100k+ have good amenities etc.

 

Buyers ditch inner city for the 'burbs as coronavirus crisis shifts demand: Domain report

A few regional areas included in this article

 

The recent PIPA Survey seems to support the relocation theory ....

https://www.pipa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/PIPA_Investor-Survey-Report_2020.pdf

 

This survey revealed that 92% of investors withdrew money from their super. Wow.

 

Cheers. But report only talks about investor sentiment.. do you have any stats relating to people movements? That would be interesting.

But it makes sense why investors will now look to other areas as Melb and Syd are quite expensive in most areas and out of reach for most investors unless they want apartments.

The industry is well incentivised to keep finding affordable properties under 600k especially for houses as those are the ones that fit most investor profiles.

Just not sure an investor led boom is something to be celebrating about for long term holders.

 

Yep, very good point. That's a shame though due to competing with airline travel but it makes sense.