Crypto Anyone thinking/planning to short bitcoin?

I predict we'll have a large increase in prices in the days after tomorrow as we did after the US thanksgiving holiday. Not sure if bitcoin will be part of this but i think the alts will.
Family get together and discuss how they just made 10x on verge etc.

 

Thanks for posting again @Laker I am starting to better understand where you are coming from. It may surprise you to find that I am also speculating very small longs on some of the infant cryptos also. If you read some of my other posts I often play both sides of a market and although shorting seems aggressive this is just business as usual for me. I do like Ripple, Litecoin and Dash but as you say the movement is certainly highly dynamic and not for faint of heart!! I am definitely not all doom on this stuff, it's a fascinating development in currency no doubt. However, I am still sceptical of the value being priced in to these things early on. Upside of this however being a very nice profit from the long side of Bitcoin over the past 4 years and starting to see a profit on the infants already.

I realise you would find it hard to accept that traditional TA can work on crypto markets and the truth is I wasn't sure and was starting to doubt it would until recently. However, now that my expected timing of a reversal has proven itself so violently I am convinced the universal growth harmonics I use are valid for BTCUSD at least. Despite the conclusions many a sceptic here quickly jump to I can assure you I am not making this **** up!!! A very large chunk of my personal and professional life has gone in to understanding market geometry (Gann/Elliott/Andrews schools mainly) and believe me I have been to the ends of the Earth in this search and found answers I am very, very happy with (not because of the money but the personal fulfilment this has brought to me and the fact that the truth of market growth harmonics is so endlessly fascinating particularly for a musician like myself

It is a significant part of my professional responsibilities to study markets and beside that I actually enjoy the ridiculously difficult intellectual challenge of using past information to predict the future. For ideas that I refer to as 'high confidence' I will accurately map out the opportunity I am looking at in detail and post ALL the info on the trade plan in advance here. As I have said before just want to pry open eyes to new possibilities and naturally if I can offer value here this has a 'natural law' positive reflection for the work I do

Your comment about predicting the news was really interesting, of course no one can do that! But as any accomplished TA trader will tell you, it is not necessary The chart has all the answers to future growth pathways and enough clues to find them, I am firmly of the belief it's a case of learning to read the language of the market more efficiently, become a skilled market detective, and being able to interpret and apply money management skills to make the results practical. Anyways I will keep offering what I see, it may be right or wrong but time will always tell

Also I agree BTCUSD and crypto in general will bounce now (BTCUSD to14500/15500 + or - a few) and we will see several violent swings ahead. However now that my main timing area has passed and worked strongly the continuation of a downtrend is very likely and my long term view is that the recent high is unlikely to get taken out for some months.

 

My Dearest Alex Striker

Thank you for replying to Lakers reply.

It was very informative and moving, especially the part about you dedicating your life to the workings of the markets, Im sure that he will appreciate it, but I dear say that by now he will be gouging on turkey and candy sticks whilst also drinking mead from his gauntlet and being merry with his friends and loved ones.

I saw your clairvoyant post on shorting Bitcoin, and I must say congratulations on hitting that bad boy a six off the green and beyond. The mysteries surrounding your predictions is fascinating and somewhat intriguing, so I wonder if you would bestow your gifts once again on predicting the next violent "upswing" on any 3 ALTS of your choice, or in fact anything at all in the world which has some monetary value and that would benefit me and others right here on this website.

Waiting anxiously for your reply

Sunny Skies XXXX

 

Ok. My argument was that every price correction (bar the last) had been due to unpredictable news stories.
If china lifts its ban on bitcoin trading in the new year the BTC price will likely skyrocket in a day. If Amazon start taking BTC payments, skyrocket. Totally unpredictable but I believe likely to happen in the future.
I have been following many bitcoin analysts and have found none to be even remotely close. I look at all their charts and fibonacci lines and the like and they are continually wrong.

Do you seriously think its going to 8400? At what date? I'll bet you a bitcoin!

 

Most ALTS are over priced and will be dealt with accordingly when the bubble pops.
Bitcoin is the big daddy and is very underpriced in my opinion. It is a commodity/ store of wealth/ currency like no other. You can't go to the local store and pay for your milk in copper. I believe you will be able to with bitcoin in the not to distant future.
You wouldn't put all your life savings under your mattress just to watch inflation eat it away. Bitcoin can sit in your wallet for a 50 years and not get eaten by inflation.
I'm sure you understand Alex if Bitcoin can take a chunk of the gold and the forex markets we're in for some astronomical rises.

 

BTC big sell wall.

 

I-m in the same boat ,and I never criticize what you can't understand and I think this will in value price range rise further and faster ,at our family pre Christmas family party home brew drinks today every EVERY one within our family unit from the NEW OLD legal people down to me think that bit-coin is early retirement ,,"NOT ME"..IMHO..

 

Well with every boom there's a bust as they say. People make money, the word spreads , people make more money then a heap of people get burnt.

At least with IPs everything is solid. The IP is real, you can touch it.

The land the IP sits on is real, you can kneel down and kiss the earth.

The mortgage documents are real, they can kiss your azz when the sheriff comes around to shut shop.

Gawd I need home brew. Why did you mention home brew. I need home brew to think more clearly!

 

It has significant value only as a result of the faith people put in it as a first-mover.

Technically it can be copied (or improved upon) ad infinitum, unlike traditional commodities.

 

Updates - Bitcoin in USD

BTCUSD shorts really hitting their straps now, I posted the above back on 9 Dec and remain short although have taken part profit around 13,000 and below, then re entered short at 15,500 and above to build a stronger position in to the down trend. Note that price never saw a weekly close above 18,000. Futures contract entries $20,630 (USD), holding out on these for 8400 target with a trailing stop loss currently sitting at 16,915 (futures contract is a different chart to below).

BTCUSD chart



Now that we are approaching half way through Jan, the timing statement (with added emphasis - bearish until Feb maybe June) above looks to be solidly confirmed so far by current price action. This timing call is based on typical time proportion of Elliott waves and has a high degree of reliability. Timing zone to watch for possible end bearish leg 16 Feb - 27 Mar. I would not even think about getting long until mid Feb at the earliest and personally I am not keen on taking more longs on any crypto at all until I see better signs generally for BTCUSD.

 

What are your views on Ripple which went down significantly a few days back?

 

@ashish1137 Disclosure: I hold a small amount of Ripple as speculative play.

Thanks for the question I don't have any chart work on ripple for a few reasons, main one being at this stage it's too early in it's track record so not much price history in the chart itself to work with. Secondly rightly or wrongly Bitcoin is the 'accepted unofficial crypto standard measure' and it has plenty of price history plus plenty of volatility and a little more liquidity than the others so for me that's a good combo to focus some energy on.

Which brings me to the important minor pattern completion that has happened on BTCUSD recently and a good opportunity to answer some of the questions I am getting on timing forecasts. There are many different ways to analyse time cycles but here I will purely focus on simple Elliott wave (the easiest to learn and IMO best and most important foundation of understanding for technically timing markets).

For what I am about to say to make sense, I need to run through some basics of Elliott wave. I kinda feel like I'm about to draw attention to something too important that I don't really want a lot of people knowing, but I'm doing it anyway because I have found the best way to hide important information is to publish it for all to read.

The main pattern of Elliott the impulse 5 wave set and ABC corrective retracement. The main 3 rules to recognise and label a 5 wave set are as follows...

1. Wave 2 end cannot exceed wave 1 beginning.
2. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave (does not have to be the longest).
3. Wave 4 cannot encroach on the price territory of wave 1 (no close beyond end of W1).

Waves 1,3 and 5 are the impulsive waves (stronger), 2 and 4 are corrective (weaker).

The retracement can take many forms but most commonly will be able to be classified as a simple correction (ABC pattern) or complex correction (ABCDE or messy looking extended correction, tends to take longer than a simple correction).

There is a mountain of useful proportional wave structure probability based information and also proportional time structure information that will give you an edge the public simply has no concept of whatsoever. It is the time structure information I want to focus on for a minute

Rules of time proportion

A simple correction will most often end between a 138.2% - 161.8% time retracement of the original 5 wave set. Elliotticians disagree on exactly what 'most often' means but a useful probability to keep in mind is 75% of the time. If it does not end in the time zone expected, it's almost always close to it providing the corrective pattern does turn out to be a genuine ABC simple retracement and not develop in to a different pattern.

A complex correction will most often end between a 223.6% and 261.8% time retracement of the original 5 wave set.

Lets take a look at some wave counts. In the first example we are looking at the 'waves within waves' principle that allows you to subdivide waves in to smaller context sets to better understand and define the big picture.

Simultaneously we have a major context (blue count), intermediate context (red count) and minor context (purple count). All of these are giving useful hints at what may unfold next and price/time structural points of interest.



Focus on the recent intermediate set (red count) first. Assuming we are in the midst of a simple correction to the red 5 wave set, the time proportion zone for next expected major low at end of wave C (red) is 14/2/18 - 21/3/18. This would also complete wave (IV) in the major context set (blue). At this stage it appears that wave A (red) may be complete (see evidence of this in chart 3 below) and if so, expect an unsteady, messy bounce back from here to form wave B (red). Timing of the high of Wave B is often close to the 138.2% time retracement line or before (red - 14/2/18).

Now shift focus to the minor degree set (purple).



We can see that the ABC retracement pattern to the original 5 wave set has just completed, however there are some hints as to why this downtrend is still intact. Number one is the evidence from intermediate context above. Number 2 is that the minor context simple correction (so far) has extended beyond the normal simple correction time zone (30/12/17 - 8/1/18 purple lines) and formed a new low so we can derive from that the downtrend is likely to continue for now (following wave B of red set unfolding).

Next focus on the proportion of waves A and C of the minor context retracement.



Notice how waves A and C are almost identical in proportion - major hint that intermediate wave A (red) has likely completed and expectation is wave B (messy bounce) next until approximately 14/2 (or before) then we should see a violent leg down (normal behaviour for a wave C) that takes out the intermediate wave A (red) low.

Note: Elliott based analysis is subjective at the best of times, no one set method to label a wave count is definitive and often I will keep 1 or 2 alternate counts if the market is ambiguous.

No advice

 

Well I did start this thread - how fortuitous I shorted it at $8425. Very lucky gamble (that was my mindset going in, same as when I play roulette at StarCity) is paying off so far.

Feels very odd as I never go short on anything, I'm always a long person.

 

Looks like a waterfall of blood to me. (depending when you got in of course.)

 

I thought you are supposed to buy when there is blood in the streets
But don't catch a falling knife.
To many conflicting sayings!

 

Not catching a falling knife, I'm falling with it and hope it keeps falling

 

I think you're right.

I can't read charts like you guys can (impressive stuff BTW @Alex Straker!) But I've got an hypothesis.

*Dons tin foil hat*

China is manipulating the market in an epic way. I reckon they're going to release a state backed crypto. I've seen some news reports on this but hard to verify if there's any truth in it.

Anyway, china has announced that they're blocking all exchanges, banning icos etc. They announce this right before CNY - typically a bad time for crypto anyway.

The market, as expected, tanks.

Then the Chinese government arrive like a knight in shining armour with a new crypto and state-backed exchanges to go with it.

If they make their coin the "sanctioned" trading pair (replacing BTC) they'll be able to have on record every single trade in the country.

I could well be wrong. Guess we'll know for sure in a few weeks.

 

How ironic, You got out at a good time and I got in at a good time.

 

Ok...

I'm in 10k more for short. No guts no glory. Gonna be either very right or very wrong. I have a small buffer of profit to soften myself if I decide to sell fast. YOLO.