Crypto Anyone thinking/planning to short bitcoin?

This was a great spring or upthrust candle to go long...and its the only one of its kind for the whole chart I think...

 

What I neglected to post here was that I held multi BTC long from $416 since 2013 and recently cashed out at $10,800 USD /BTC to take a small short position risking 5% of profit maximum if I am wrong. Which broker is that? Mine (IC markets) has not hit those price levels but mind you the instrument is a CFD so pricing can be slightly different.

 

We know, Alex

 

Just making sure, I have been trying to warn you guys

 

I can't see anything in those charts that makes me want to short it at this point. But I'm not one for trying to be first.

But, when talking about shorting something like this you should make it clear what your strategy is - what's your time frame? Weeks, days, minutes?

 

Yes you prob right Jess, crazy idea to go short really, maybe I will just be lucky

Bitcoin @ 10k...

 

Likewise, we have been trying to tell you that:

• Bitcoin is only one of many crypto currencies, and not the most attractive to go long on atm
• We are aware of the pattern of corrections, and know there will be pullbacks

Ultimately, shorting BTC is nothing new. Hope it works out for you, but our interest has moved on to other currencies. It feels like you are trying to warn us that there are no more life jackets when the ship has already docked.

 

I like it long

 

In 5 years people are going to wish they did something with it at $20k - where it will but in the next 5 mins

 

@chylld Yep I have been hearing you and on a long term basis I agree with a lot of what you guys say. You will have to forgive my 'ADD' approach to this stuff I'm afraid.....personality trait. Your diversified crypto portfolio is a cracking idea as a long term speculative play and if I am completely honest with myself I am a little jealous of yours I do also like a few of the infant cryptos as speccys.

I honestly hope you continue to do very well out of this long term its been some of the fastest and easiest money ever made over recent years. Always enjoy your posts too my friend.... and of course yours @Xenia !!

 

Keep it PG rated, this is a family forum.

 

Shorted this again close to 15k USD last night but stopped out and reversed position to long at 15,250, out again at 16,500 for nice gain this thing is relentless!!!

I am still grappling with how what boils down to an electronic form of storage of cash and transacting can have this meteoric 'value' priced in to it at the rate we are seeing. Can only put it down to being dominated by retail traders so the normal behaviour rulebook has been thrown out the window.

 

Keep an eye on 17,000/17,500 Timing zone we are in is hot 8/12 - 22/12. Retail traders are dominating this market in a phase of extreme exuberance, normal behaviour rulebook does not apply, be very very careful. Shorted again @ 17,000 XBTUSD (US dollars not AUD!) ....but I don't expect anyone to want to follow, I am coming from a different place to most folks on this one and my convictions based on facts not euphoria.

 

Out of half position less than 4 hours later at 14,500 with 14.7% gain (much greater with CFD leverage). Stop loss at breakeven on remaining half. Looking to campaign back in again expecting several wild swings ahead. Don't care if I get stopped out 17,000/17,500 looks even better now Won't trade it short above 18,000 these major arcs are the limit of the preceding 5 wave set.

No advice DYOR

 

I wish I understood a fraction of what you're talking about @Alex Straker

All I know it's been a wild ride today, kind of glad I don't have the balls to trade it. I'll just leave my tiny little bit of BTC sitting on a piece of paper until it levels out around the $1m/BTC mark

 

@Propagate I hear you bro Holding little speccys is lots of fun when they rocket like this thing has. Plenty of time left in this as a market and other new coins with potential. I am not calling for the end of crypto or anything that dramatic as I have mentioned elsewhere I like the idea of limited specs on some of the infants, just be prepared to potentially end up with heaven or hell.

Personally (although sensible and steady structured accumulation is the main game as my clients well know!) in speculating with less significant resources I do tend to look for the wildest markets to tame and go for it. This one's a tough nut being retail dominated. However I can't ignore this incredible mover.

Only my opinion - you have an upside goal and I can appreciate how awesome that will be if it gets over the line, but ancient wisdom would say to still set a mental stop loss limit to the downside also at which point you make a rule for yourself to get out.....just in case. Can always buy it back again from the comfort of your armchair my friend

Be well.

 

My understanding is that as a currency, the value in Bitcoin is really the 'confidence' in the currency. Here's my very basic and totally unqualified thinking...

Intrinsically Bitcoin has no actual value in the same manner that a piece of thin plastic with pretty pictures on it has no actual value (such as a $100 note). It's only valuable because everyone believes it is. If everyone decides it's worth a lot then it is. If everyone decides it's not worth anything then it crashes overnight.

Bitcoin also has scarcity. There's only a limited number available. If everyone wants in, it pushes the assumed value up, which is what appears to be what's happening now. This also means that if it gains widespread use as a currency then that limited supply needs to be spread around billions of consumers. This means that it's not unforeseeable that Bitcoin increases in value another 1000% or more over time. Who knows how high this could go?

The problem with this theory is it needs widespread adoption as a currency exchange. Right now not many people are actually accepting Bitcoin as an exchange medium for goods and services. Theoretically you can use it to buy a sandwich, but the local deli isn't going to accept Bitcoin to sell you the sandwich. If nobody wants to actually use it as a currency, sooner or later people will realise that they can't actually buy or sell anything with it and the price will crash into nothingness.

This week Steam (the worlds largest online computer game store) announced they would stop accepting Bitcoin as a currency to purchase games. The sited the instability of the currency and high transaction costs as reasons for this.

Overall my take on it is by all means buy some and hope to make a fortune. Understand though that there's a possibility that you'll loose everything you put into it; it is gambling.

I definitely wouldn't short Bitcoin though. You'd do well if it crashes, but when prices rise, shorting can have potentially infinite consequences.

 

@Peter_Tersteeg Agree with majority of this but shorting does not have to carry unlimited risk, that what a stop loss is for, just not for faint of heart that's for sure I understand managing risk (ie: limiting risk with a stop loss) is the point of importance and 100% agree with THAT!!

 

Market can remain irrational longer than you remain solvent.

 

If the exchanges are seeing record levels of people registering to purchase cause of FOMO, why would you short bitcoin?? FOMO is only going to drive up the price further in the short term.