Anyone invest with rising sea levels in mind?

Discussion in 'Investment Strategy' started by Danieljk101, 25th Sep, 2017.

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  1. Danieljk101

    Danieljk101 Well-Known Member

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    Just curious if i am the only person who keeps this in mind when investing in property?

    I am aware this probably wont be an issue in our life time but with predictions of 1m to 6m by the end of the century people will soon catch on.

    We would really love to buy our long term PPOR on the gold coast in the next few years and i just look at all the canal / beach properties and it seems risky to me.

    Government web sites like Ozcoast (Information about Australia's coast, including its estuaries and coastal waterways and climate change impact) show the impacts of sea level rises on coastal areas.

    Am i being paranoid here?
     
  2. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    Yes and no. The Netherlands has many parts below sea level. Theywill build infrastructure in the main cities to protect property. The issues is to what extent this will impact amenity.

    One thing I would be considering with regard to climate change and sea level rises in the short to medium term is the impact of severe weather events in certain areas. I'd be concerned about storm surges.
     
  3. PJ1

    PJ1 Well-Known Member

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    I dont think your paranoid.I think it is just good due diligence. Councils are already preparing for rising sea levels. I recently purchased a house in a lakeside area and there are restrictions regarding any renovations i can do before the house needs to comply with the latest development regulations. Also home insurance is almost double our previous house so insurance companies are onto it also. Id check with the local council.
     
  4. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    Yes, I take it into consideration, for sure.
     
  5. Phar Lap

    Phar Lap Well-Known Member

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    So, all that expensive real estate near water will now descend in value and the outer-inland areas with views of such will ascend to become the most expensive.

    Mt Druit, sounds like it has views being a mountain and all....datts ?
     
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  6. hobartchic

    hobartchic Well-Known Member

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    I will not pursue properties on flood plains or where coastal erosion is significant. These properties have been selling in Southern Tasmania but there has been serious FOMO driving the market rather than due diligence. A fair few purchasers will find themselves up the creek re: rebuilding in the event of a house fire/ extensive house damage. Due to flood zoning the council will likely refuse rebuild and insurers may refuse payout and/ or reduce it. So yes I take it into account, and no you are not paranoid just smart!
     
  7. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    I think you're being sensible. Storm surges will become bigger and more frequent as time goes on.

    I totally took it into consideration buying my home and studied the storm surge maps religiously.

    The chances of a storm surge/flood next year are always small......but you don't own a house for one year...You own it for 30 and over thirty years the chances of a severe Weather event are pretty good.

    Then there's the small matter of insurance.

    I found that if I bought in a storm surge area that even if the storm surge doesnt kill you the insurance costs will.
     
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  8. CowPat

    CowPat Well-Known Member

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    Hasn't global warming has been debunked yet? .............there I said it

    Now have at it !
     
  9. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    au contaire.
    But if you've intellectually/theoretically debunked it, that's up to you and not really the OP's question.
     
  10. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    Rising sea levels - for my own purchases (not our BA clients) I do not take into account. According to local council's acceptance of rising sea level theory my PPOR will have 0.9m of sea water in my backyard by 2050. This is on a property that did not get wet feet during the 2007 Newcastle floods! So I am not a believer, sorry.

    However, for flood affected land by runoff or existing rivers and creeks, I certainly do take that into account, especially since development (more houses taking up more land that used to soak up water but now can't) is making water runoff during storm events more of a thing
     
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  11. CowPat

    CowPat Well-Known Member

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    tres bien mon ami ,

    there is a lot of people making a lot of money pushing this tripe

    Tim Flannery bought ocean front property

    have a look at his predictions and time frames .
    $180,000 as part-time chairman of the Government's Climate Commission.



    sorry ......... all this is just an " inconvenient truth"
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 26th Sep, 2017
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  12. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    In August The Australian had a story by Ean Higgins on Tim Flannery’s waterfront home.

    Higgins’ message was the fact that Flannery had a house near the water showed he was insincere in his warnings about sea level rise. The article also suggested Flannery had frightened the elderly into selling their seaside homes to him.

    But the Hawkesbury River where Flannery’s home stands has steeply rising banks. Waterfront homes there are several metres above sea level and are not endangered by a one metre sea level rise.

    Flannery made this point to Higgins but declined to say exactly how far above sea level his house was because he was concerned about revealing information about the location. A not unreasonable concern, given the death threats climate scientists have received in Australia.

    So The Australian printed a map showing the exact location of Flannery’s house.

    This was too much, even for The Australian – the on-line version of the article has been removed, and The Australian published an apology to Flannery.
     
  13. Danieljk101

    Danieljk101 Well-Known Member

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    Sea levels rising is a scientific fact, sea levels have been going up and down for millions of years.

    The only 'disputed' facts are whether humans are having an impact / speeding up the process.

    There are islands in the pacific that have gone under water over the last few years.

    It doesn't take much but if the mass public starts to worry no one is going to want to spend there millions of dollars on at risk properties.
     
  14. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Well-Known Member

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    Watched a program on the ABC yesterday about coral islands in the Pacific that are getting swallowed up by rising sea levels and the natives had to move to mainland New Zealand or basically perish. Some older folk have decided to stay there. Was a bit sad really.
     
  15. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Based on past cycles, do we have any estimate of "peak sea level" and any idea when they will start to drop again? I saw an article on Catalyst on the weekend claiming sea levels will rise by 9 metres. Seemed a bit far fetched to me. The last time sea levels peaked was "shortly" before the last ice age. "Shortly" in geological terms, not human years.

    Ok, just did a google and it was 125,000 years ago. Something interesting in this is:

    "Sea surface temperatures during the last interglacial period peaked 125,000 years ago, and these were 0.5±0.3°C warmer than the late 1800s. However, temperatures from 1995-2014 were indistinguishable—0.1±0.3°C cooler. In other words, it appears that temperatures today are now equivalent to the warmest from the last interglacial period, when sea level was much higher."
    https://arstechnica.com/science/201...s-this-warm-sea-level-was-a-whole-lot-higher/

    So, last time it was this warm, sea levels were a lot higher. I wonder where all the water is trapped now that is different to last time?
     
  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    > Anyone invest with rising sea levels in mind?

    No.
     
  17. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that's a thing. I had to refer to that horrid publication in my previous job. So I glad I don't need to look at it again!
     
  18. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    You don’t have to have sea level rises to have problems with erosion from aves and currents .

    When we bought our weekender in North arm cove , we also looked at the near by suburb of pindimar . It’s very lying and at the time found a masters thesis on line which documented three blocks on the east coast and one was in pindimar . Since records were first kept , the author was able to demonstrate that a particular block had lost 17m in length .

    We went there on a high tide with a southerly blowing on shore and I saw lumps of the block being eroded away . The house was only 1-2 foot above the waves and around 6-7 meters from the waterfront . Didn’t buy that one .

    The one we bought has a rocky forshore and the house is around 10-15 m above sea level .

    We’ve cruised past cottage point on a king high tide and the water level was at the level of the floor boards . One owner got very angry when I started taking pictures , including his property ...

    Cliff
     
  19. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Prolly also worth mentioning that its called storm surge, not little-waves-gently-lapping-the-back-porch surge...

    [​IMG]
     
  20. LibGS

    LibGS Well-Known Member

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    I certainly factor in climate change for long term purchases.But its not just floods, in time insurance costs will increase for places that will be more prone to cyclones and storms.

    Nocookies