Any here think China is running out of puff?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by hammer, 26th Jan, 2019.

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  1. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    A lot of talk at the moment about China's debt load finally starting to catch up.

    I heard all of this 5 years ago and China just kept on powering on.

    But still...if something were to happen it would be a rather large event.

    Does anyone here have a plan should China run out of puff? Is it a factor in your strategy?
     
  2. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I would say no the Chinese government has a very powerful balanced position and Trumps knows full well from the time they built the "WALL""that they are able to resist all outside pressure..
     
  3. marty998

    marty998 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think I've ever believed the Chinese economic growth statistics.

    The idea that you can "command" a certain level of GDP growth and every year it comes out bang on that number is frankly absurd.
     
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  4. Islay

    Islay Well-Known Member

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  5. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    China is a machine.

    Complicated, large and powerful.

    Although matkem forces and world economy have an impact on all.
     
  6. The Prestige

    The Prestige Well-Known Member

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    It's not if but when....
     
  7. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Only reason we never had a proper recession in 08/09 was China....without China trade AUS is nothing.
     
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  8. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Please dont be naive.

    If it was not China it would be some one else.

    Always some one in the world aspiring.

    When China reaches maturity. Their will be an India and Indonesia and combinations of many others.

    Its like saying if it was not for the United States..... Yes if not for the US the world would be a different place . But the US is here.

    Mist people dont know that We do more business with Japan than the US. Food for though.



    1. China: US$68 billion (29.6% of total Australian exports)
    2. Japan: $23.6 billion (10.3%)
    3. South Korea: $12.5 billion (5.5%)
    4. India: $10.2 billion (4.4%)
    5. Hong Kong: $9.1 billion (4%)
    6. United States: $8.6 billion (3.8%)
    7. New Zealand: $6.9 billion (3%)
    8. Taiwan: $6.2 billion (2.7%)
    9. Indonesia: $4.9 billion (2.1%)
    10. United Kingdom: $4.6 billion (2%)
    11. Singapore: $3.6 billion (1.6%)
    12. Vietnam: $3.5 billion (1.5%)
    13. Malaysia: $3.5 billion (1.5%)
    14. Thailand: $3.1 billion (1.3%)
    15. Netherlands: $1.8 billion (0.8%)
     
  9. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    If Trump wont trade with China, that's all the more for us,
     
  10. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure it works like that....
     
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  11. kingstreet75

    kingstreet75 Well-Known Member

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    I live in China. Everything is getting more expensive. Business is not great for many people at the moment. I always ask this question at dinner tables. People seem a bit pessimistic.
    People made money then lost it. Almost everyone I know has lost at least 10k in a failed business or a scam etc. Me too! It's just not a very easy place to do business legally. Even when you do it can kill you. A lot of people had their savings hit in the last stock market crash. But people are very resilient and while it will slow, it won't crash. Government here can do things normal governments cannot. and you can always pull up the footpath and plant vegetables.... or sleep under a bridge without people bugging you.
     
  12. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    From what I hear things slowed down remarkably. Japan was like this. Everyone was saying it will become the next superpower. Japanese economy to be the number 1 soon! The headlines read. Was all great until it was not. It hit the wall.

    Think China will be the same. Probably will be number 2 for long time. Then will lose that place to India or someone else.
     
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  13. kingstreet75

    kingstreet75 Well-Known Member

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    I think the Chinese are prepared for it. Central government have been telling people to expect a 'modest lifestlye' for some time now. Aging population is a factor.
    I'm not so confident about India! Ever tried to use Indian e-commerce? Nightmare.
     
  14. Phineas

    Phineas Well-Known Member

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    Not endorsing the view, but I found it interesting...

     
  15. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    I call it Japan 2.0. history will repeat itself again in some form. Back in late 80s situation pretty much the same, Japanese were manufacturing hub and had a mega boom , stocks and property prices got crazy , debt piled up at Jap companies, buying spree overseas acquiring land and companies just like China doing past decade. It all looked hunky dory until crash came and Japan hasn't really recovered since. China will.have their lost decades soon, given the debt pile they have. So far measures taken by their gov has only slowed down the rate of debt growth, there is no way to have an orderly deleveraging try as they might...

    USA probably knows this and might be trying to trigger a painful deleveraging China side by doing tariffs. Once the dominoes start falling u will get heaps of NPLs. Big Property companies like ever grande are financing billions of loans from overseas at rates of up to 10%. Simple math will tell u it's just not sustainable.

    Yuan to usd is already crapping out as it is.
     
  16. Paul@PAS

    Paul@PAS Tax, Accounting + SMSF + All things Property Tax Business Plus Member

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    China is going through tough times. The next year may have some sweet & sour moments.

    In all seriousness China can do heaps with monetary policy. They spend up and = jobs and stimulus and they can just print notes. Their labour costs are cheap and they can support industry so "layoffs " dont occur. Stockpiles could build ....This is often what signals more a economic concern for trading partners since demand for supplies slow. eg iron ore, coal etc. But while the west buys cars, trains, TVs etc the balance of trade works for China. They can also play with currency and revalue the Yuan.
     
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  17. Woodjda

    Woodjda Well-Known Member

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    The problem is so much of their corporate debt is in USD and it is so huge that any significant devaluation will crush the economy. I'm fully expecting it to get extremely ugly there and I think the Hong Kong stuff is being used by the government to distract the public from the economic problems. Unfortunately Australia is likely to be a massive loser out of any Chinese economic problems since they account for 30% of our exports.
     
  18. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    Wasnt China about to crsh every year since last two decades? albiet every year its for a new narrative though.
    China debts are internal in yuan not in dollars which can be written off if need be.
     
    Last edited: 4th Sep, 2019
  19. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    They can do what ever they want and attacking the Chinese legal system and their authorities as MrTrump has done has proved to be a large red flag to the Chinese Bull ..
     
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  20. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Not true, massive amount of corporate debt in USD.

    They have blinked on HK too by the sound of it.
     

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