and so it begins...

Brisbane yes...not convinced it will be as bad in Sydney . The stock is far more spread out and the population here can absorb it more readily than in Brisbane.

 

It will be oversupply for the short term and put a lot of downwards pressure (in the short term) but in and of itself it won't cause anything major mid to long term; pressure on rental yield and market value can mean opportunity..

 

Maybe this is a reason that the Parramatta Eels sponsorship got the boot? Apart from numerous other reasons...

 

Not so sure? When markets tank this product usually goes pear shaped first because valuations don't come in and investors can't go ahead with closing

 

You're spending too much time in the USA Closing ....

Yep it may go pear shaped...but Sydney's apartment problems won't be as bad as Brisbane's....

 

On the box today they had a guest who was saying, in regards to Sydney, forget 5 or 10% off, he is already seeing discounts of up to 30% !!!

Free holiday offers, lot of points offers & trying to keep the sticker price appearing high.

Also this person was saying same, Bris and Mel worse than Syd most likely.

I keep looking at a block in the SW, supposed to be 2 towers, one is up and looks finished, lights on in scattered floors and apartments, I am starting to wonder if the second one has not appeared due to deciding to hold off.....

I guess since about 2015 everyone here has had fair warning on holding or buying units in the 3 Eastern capitals.

I wonder if it will spill over into the older walk ups, many have had great growth, but if people start to heavily discount rents in new places, it would have to hurt some old ones if they are close by as this goes on.

 

Developer discounting is a very, very worrying sign.

 

Not just the capital controls from China - a lot of banks here won't lend to non residents. There have also been some concerning signs from within China, a few regional banks defaulting and having to be bailed out in the order of hundreds of billions by the government. If that's turns into a trend, lookout.

 

Skyhaus?

 

Any knows how hard the discounting is in Brisbane? Has it even started yet?

 

You may have seen this, but there are four NRAS apartments for sale in a complex in Brisbane. 2x1 bedders and 2 x studio available for sale as a bulk set or individually ... If it wasn't for the Brisbane apartment oversupply issue it would be interesting possibility.

Jason

 

Seems so.

As of the 30th of Jan 1 in 5 apartments were selling at a loss, up from 1 in 6 (according to AFR) three months prior to that, and about 1 in 10 a year ago.

BIS OE just released new research saying it is now 40% selling at a loss (apartments) though this is since 2011 so it's hard to get a direct comparison.

I found this, which has it at 90% in some areas of the apartment market New apartments reselling at a loss in Melbourne, Brisbane though that's anecdata.

Bloody nora. Glad I don't own an apartment.

 

"China extradition deal collapses as Malcolm Turnbull pulls plug under pressure from Labor, backbenchers"

China extradition deal collapses as Malcolm Turnbull pulls plug under pressure from Labor, backbenchers

This should keep that Chinese money coming for a bit longer.

 

The guy I was listening too is not a doomsday person or anything & seemed to be mainly talking about Sydney, but part of what he was implying, which I believe would be 100% true, is they will do all sorts of things to hide the loss, so it appears things are not so bad.

They could gift you cash, deposits, whatever, so you do not know exactly what is going on.

I liked when he so out of hand dismissed only a 5 or 10% pull back for Sydney as utter nonsense, and I think that is also true, or will be shown to be true.

Keep in mind, he did not spell out specifics.

 

Havent seen those...