and so it begins...

Crikey.
That's a fair amount. And that's all they've told us about.

 

Yeah you're going to have to expand on that one.. I can't think of when the Americans have ever done anything to the French.. I assume you mean the British & i assume you mean like when the British sent the BEF + more planes than they could afford, then tried to convince the french government to flee & lead in absentia with their navy, suffering huge casualties during their retreat due to lying and incompetent french military leadership, then refusing peace terms to fight the Germans while Roosevelt won over isolationist factions and supplied as much aid as he could to Britain before formally committing to enter the war? The french have themselves to blame for the stomping they received, specifically their blind faith in the maginot line, incompetent senior leadership & refusal to consider modern war strategy. The Ardennes was far more penetrable with modern vehicles than they had considered.

The Americans were never part of the triple entente & looking at the isolationist policy of the late 30's by itself isn't fair. When you consider the casualties (& unpaid debts) incurred during the last European land war (wwI) they got involved in, not to mention kicking off a chain of events leading to the great depression, its unsurprising that they were reticent about entering into a war. A war that many US politicians & Churchill himself thought was largely the fault of the treaty of treaty versailles & was in many ways inevitable. To quote Foch, “This is not peace. It is an Armistice for twenty years.” 20 years & 2 months later, Nazi's invaded Poland.


What incident am I missing when the Americans had a formal security agreement with the french then ignored it?

 

Yep you need to go back a few years ago, there are some SMH articles that paint a clearer picture, basically staging preps for up to 20,000 marines. There were more than a few articles in 2011 etc but now none of the press is really covering what is happening up there instead they just talk about these "rotations".

If you talk to people who live in Darwin they'll tell you its a bigger deal that whats being reported. Lots of funding, lots of infrastructure, lots of "joint good will". But like I said.....almost zero press.

Between this and the fact that the USA are flying drones out of Edinburgh AFB in South Australia with practically zero press being written about it you realize that the Aust govt is up to some shady **** at times and treating the public like mushrooms.

 

Yes and training with depleted uranium munitions spreading that poisonous dust everywhere. Navy too.

 

If you're a government and want to do anything dodgy...you do it in Darwin.

It's big enough to have all the supporting infrastructure, but isolated enough to not be on the population base's radar.

The NT is also federally funded (more or less). So the feds can be quite "persuasive" about what they can do up here.

 

I would believe it.
Wonder what else is happening in the military zones in South Australia.

 

There's a Youtube channel that I follow by a local Sydneysider who always posts videos about the upcoming property bust in Australia. Some of the points he raises usually make sense but I was a little surprised today when he posted a video where he pretty much admits the property bubble (Sydney in particular) might never burst.

 

This may be the signal to get out

 

He admits it?
Is he controlling what happens?

 

From Gottliebsen this morning:

 

Guest, probably old news but developers are cancelling apartment projects in Perth.

City towers on hold as unit market stays flat

Plans for thousands of Perth apartments are being put on hold, including what could have been the tallest residential tower outside the CBD, because of lacklustre market conditions.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/32629806/city-towers-on-hold-as-unit-market-stays-flat/?cmp=st

 

I know one local that is trying to get out & they said that before the lenders changed stance on who they will lend too, plenty of locals probably finding out about APRA and valuations.

Was just discussing in another thread that they would have to be darn cheap to start looking any good.

 

Now Triguboff is saying there’s no crisis after all.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...y/news-story/a1da73fb92e4bef907d6911e0840b2d5

 

Hmmm.

Let's just put things into perspective by following the money.

Every apartment that does not settle is:
no stamp duty for state government.
No profit for banks
No profit for developers
No profit for real estate agent
No profit for furniture and appliances stores

Do you really think that the state government and Feds would allow this to happen? Right now lobbyists are sitting in MPs offices with bags of cash

Everything will sell, once it sells and all the money has been made then they crash it again by raising interest rates and skimming more stamp duty, more loans, from bargain basement buys. Just look at Perth to see where Sydney will be in a couple years time.

But over the next few years
The Goverment and banks will lower interest rates.
The banks will lower the lending criteria
Immigration will increase
VISA categories will change like the purported school visa for 6 year olds to come to Australia to get educated.
Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne will go up

 

Good to revisit this thread after 6 months. Does anyone have any info on settlements that are unable to be completed in Syd/Melb/Brisbane?

 

The majority of the stock hasnt come online yet ... it will be late 2017 before we really know. I can tell you that a large Chinese group did a JV with a large Sydney developer ( Dyldam) and have had hundreds of settlements fall over. They are lucky enough to have the cash to hold, and are tenanting all their unsettled stock ... you only need to drive past any of the dozen development sites these guys are involved in across Sydney to see the massive "For Rent" signs hanging from the balconies... Quietly, they are calling Chinese buyers agents across the city and country offering the stock at chunky discounts.

 

Wow had a look at this Dyldam group, massive expansion all over Sydney. If they cant even settle the current stock, does that mean its going to get pretty ugly when all their units come online later this year and next year?

sounds like the Chinese capital controls are really biting. I have read some posts on aussie chinese forums asking for buyers to take over OTP contracts as they can't get the funds over to settle.

looks like the undersupplied sydney market is getting oversupplied soon. Funny thing is domain andrew wilson just said rents are rising in sydney?!? go figure...

 

I'll call it; "wait and see".
My opinion is that in general, the apartments in Sydney will be absorbed... Friend bought OTP in a huge complex in Bella Vista, from what I understand he would make over 100k if sold now, but the expected rent took a battering because so many new apartments came on line all at once.
Definitely there maybe some areas of oversupply but that will reveal itself later on...

 

I wouldn't short the market, but don't see how buying at 1% yields helps the buyer even if it doesn't fall.

 

Sounds like a perfect storm