VIC Amazing variances in Geelong's market

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Dave3214, 21st Oct, 2016.

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  1. Dave3214

    Dave3214 Well-Known Member

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    As a mere PPOR buyer in Geelong (Norlane) over six years ago i have been very interested in the property markets for quite a long time. Obviously like probably everyone here i am keen to see some capital growth, which alas for my place has not really happened in that time, well c'est la vie, it might happen the longer i live here.

    But i am quite blown away by the astonishing divergence of prices for Geelong's inner ring suburbs, and those of suburbs in some cases just a few hundred metres further out. Particularly the suddenly exploding east Geelong area, which is basically from Garden St to inside Walter St East, and along Humble St inside St Albans Rd.

    As an example, houses in Myers St East Geelong seem to command a figure of at least $600K, one bloke bought two houses in one day (295 and 333 Myers St) for about $630K and $680K respectively. A townhouse at 2/391 Myers St sold for an even $600K, and when you see this link a host of other places near there command similar prices.

    2/391 Myers Street, East Geelong, Vic 3219 - Property Details

    But, and here's the big one, as someone who grew up in Newcomb, just a few short hundred metres further down and across Boundary RD, houses are HALF that price.

    Real Estate Properties For Sale in Newcomb, VIC 3219

    And that link shows many that are in the $300K range, a few below too.

    I for one just cannot really get my head around how a few hundred metres (and access to the same high schools) can lead to such a massive differential. It would suggest to me that Newcomb may be quite undervalued, it's only a few minutes longer to those cafes in East Geelong or the CBD, and both are near plenty of shops and bus routes too. It's similar too with houses in Geelong West and Manifold Heights being priced over $500K now and houses a little further North being gettable for much less too.

    These divergences are only recent, about 7-8 years ago East Geelong was still in the $300K ballpark, although a lot of this is people from Melbourne buying in these inner areas as Melbourne's inner regions are so expensive. But i would reckon at some point that some leakage might move outwards, as Geelong residents suddenly see a fair bit of value in places that have practically the same amenities. As G-Town as said before too, a lot of Geelong people don't even go to Melbourne, so the smaller distances of Geelong mean less to locals. It's just fascinating to me, seeing this happen in my home town.
     
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  2. MikeyBallarat

    MikeyBallarat Well-Known Member

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    Hey there Dave, great post.

    I should disclose something about the two nearby properties on Myers St - that was my granddad, he just did the bidding. My parents were the ones that bought 333, and 295 I bought for myself. My parents have lived and worked all their life in the Western Suburbs of Melbourne, and they have only recently discovered Geelong and would like to retire in Geelong. As for me, I bought 295 to be a forever home, everyone's different of course but Geelong just suits me so well. My parents (both originally from Sunshine) view even the most pricey parts of Geelong as being excellent value, they consider East Geelong to be just like Williamstown (with a nicer beach) and they can't understand why it's so cheap. I was in Newtown with my cousin 2 days ago and he described it as being better than Toorak!

    But it's not only East Geelong, the part of town that's really got me scratching my head is Belmont! Many properties, particularly those of a nicer style (Californian Bungalows, weatherboard homes closer to the river) are going for almost as much, if not more than the aforementioned East Geelong area. Prices have really shot up over the past few months. Geelong West and Newtown have always been gangbusters, Highton is gorgeous (I work there myself) but it's only 30/40k less than East Geelong so why not go for the closer suburb to town. I just got a high paying new job that allows me to service a bigger mortgage - why not buy in East Geelong?

    To tell you the truth, neither myself nor my parents got why that townhouse further down Myers St went for so much; it's not really walking distance from town like our properties are, it's a new house with not a lot of character, and it's not even a full proper house with land.

    As for why Geelong West/Manifold Heights are more pricey than Bell Park, and East Geelong is more pricey than Newcomb, my theory is as follows: It's not so much due to the location but due to the style of house. Geelong West is mainly chic Victorian cottages, Manifold Heights art deco, as opposed to the triple fronted brick veneer of Bell Park. Same goes with East Geelong being dominated by Victorian, Edwardian and Californian Bungalows as opposed to Newcomb which is either triple fronted brick veneer or housing commission (unlike Norlane and Corio there is no clear divide where the commission areas start and end, they are all interspersed throughout the whole suburb). I'm superficial - I love a pretty house!

    When terrace dumps in places Moonee Ponds, Brunswick and Flemington command ridiculous prices, buyers start looking elsewhere. East Geelong is closer to the centre of a better city, and you can get fully renovated fully detached old character homes on proper land in the $600k region. The employment market for most professional jobs is actually better in Geelong than in Melbourne - it certainly is in my field due to much less competition - so you really don't have to leave Geelong ever! Geelong just makes sense, and there's a suburb to suit your taste, whatever that may be. So yep, you can count me, and my parents, as a part of the mass exodus one hour down the road. And as more and more people discover Geelong the prices will just get higher and higher. Geelong rules!
     
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  3. emza

    emza Well-Known Member

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    Moving there later this year.

    There are some really shifty areas and I think that's playing a big part. When you look at thefts, break-ins and so on, it's centred in those hotspots.

    People see those suburbs and just shy away, although if you were to blind yourself to that suddenly it's a house five minutes to the CBD and water and 55 minutes to Melbourne!

    It's gentrifying still but who knows if it will continue with the car manufacturing shut down and whatever economic trouble will be coming in the future.

    We had the misfortune to rent next to some very bad neighbours, exactly the type who live in the bad spots in Geelong and we moved in the end because it was hell. People screaming and fighting, drunk, police over every week, people rattling the gate, yelling things.

    So yeah... there are some cheap houses in those areas but you know the old saying... pioneers get slaughtered and the settlers prosper...
     
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  4. Dave3214

    Dave3214 Well-Known Member

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    That's amazing G-Town....Yep you'll do so well there at 295, just a genuine walk from everything you could ever need. Those houses all long that part of east Geelong are Edwardian or Californian style and some of those blocks are quite large too, certainly much bigger than the smaller blocks of the likes of Frederick St, Winter St etc.

    I guess with me i'm probably the least fashionable or fashion conscious homeowner of all time. I even have pictures given to me years ago as gifts which are in the wardrobes because A) have no picture rails, and B) can't be bothered putting any up, I've never been a picture person anyway. So aesthetics of housing for me is totally over my head.

    But in this environment of smashed avocados and other talk about housing affordability, Geelong has to be front and centre. I think even just today Terry Ryder has mentioned several Geelong suburbs as 'hot spots', and the thing that gets me about the Northern suburbs, several Melbourne suburbs were undesirable 20-30 years ago. Not sure everything will remain set in stone, demographics have changed in other areas. However i am hoping that the ones who simultaneously whinge about unaffordable housing yet eschew a full size house on a full size block under $250K in a large regional city close to Melbourne start to get real. Otherwise to me they are whistling in the wind, and will never end up buying a place.
     
  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Ooii..Davo....you are killing me...you are letting the secret..out.......;)
     
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  6. phanja

    phanja Member

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    Thanks @Dave3214 and @Gtown for great posts. I'm looking at North Geelong at the moment, are there any bad areas/streets in this suburbs? Thank you.
     
  7. Dave3214

    Dave3214 Well-Known Member

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    Probably might like to perhaps avoid being right near some of the Coxon Pde public housing area, which can be a touch feral depending on who is there, and Kildare Ct next to the footy ground as well has some public housing in that block of twin level units.

    But much of that area just off Church St is already looked upon as Geelong West lite, many are Californians, although there are some rare 60's duplexes in that area too. You then have a few houses interspersed in the industrial area near the train station and factories of Douro St etc, and more residential in Giddings/Walsgott/Osborne which run parallel to Thompson Rd. The latter is a very busy road, so may be best to look at a side street, although a couple of new units not far from the corner of Victoria St sold for mid $300K's a year or so ago, and even in Norlane just last week a place sold for $355 on Thommo Rd.

    The golf course estate is quite new, the ones nearer the water are quite expensive, but as you go to Jobbins St and surrounds, the houses are quite close together and quite homogenous in shape and size.

    Basically though there's not too much to go wrong here, maybe just for aesthetics you could look to avoid the industrial areas.
     
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  8. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Hope it doesn't end up being another Mandurah.
     
  9. Dave3214

    Dave3214 Well-Known Member

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    24 Orr St sold at auction for $836500 just this weekend. Must say that's a massive price for a place that's not even right near Pakington St. Renovated Californian, but it blows the record price of that street out of the water by a couple of hundred K.

    24 Orr Street, Manifold Heights, Vic 3218 - Property Details

    Six kilometres in a Northerly direction, you can get houses still for approximately $250K. That's what i mean by a variance, as is Newcomb's prices compared to the expensive and neighboring East Geelong. Don't know enough about Mandurah,but Geelong's not a mining town, and not really even an industrial town anymore, as Alcoa and Ford have already closed.
     
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  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Amazing results, Geelong looking good
     
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  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    That won't happen, chalk and cheese imo
     
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  12. Dave3214

    Dave3214 Well-Known Member

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    So a year on, and it looks like some of those differences in prices between nearby areas are melding into a more even demarcation. The house sold last year at 418 Myers St for 473K was at that stage close to $150-180K more than similar 60's build houses in Newcomb and Thomson, now with places like 1 Cassia Ct selling for $410K, that wide margin is narrowing. And the amazing sight of this place in St.Albans Rd Thomson selling for a hefty $525K really now puts almost inner-East pricing now out further, although this place is atypical of the area. It's location, on a busy road opposite the Geelong race-course and opposite a public housing area near Perry Close though obviously was no concern to the buyer.

    179 St Albans Road, Thomson, Vic 3219 - Property Details

    It's probably no surprise, as amenities are reasonably similar for many of these suburbs, and it's probably the classic ripple effect. BUt for now it's still rippling like an ocean liner has passed by...:p
     
  13. HapppyChat

    HapppyChat Well-Known Member

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    Good to read this, we're moving there from the Snowy Mountains at the end of the year. I just bought in Belmont yesterday, the school is a big factor in the price. Belmont High is much better than other state secondary schools. Oberon is 2nd, but it is shutting down and moving, so us with kids fight each other for the Belmont catchment. Over the other side of High st it's much cheaper even though its still Belmont.