ASX Shares Afterpay(APT) - 52 week high/low

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by oracle, 4th Aug, 2020.

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  1. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    Screen Shot 2020-08-04 at 2.32.57 pm.png

    The above says it all. I have to say I don't think I have seen any stock go up 9.5 folds in a matter of 1 year especially since it's not a penny stock.

    I honestly don't know what kind of rosy sales and earnings growth forecasts have been baked in for something that really is not that hard to replicate by either a big tech/financial company if it wanted to.

    I heard APT charges around 5% margin from the merchant. Amazing they can pull this off. Just hope you hide away from Amazon for as long as you can. Bezo's famous words "Your margin is my opportunity." If Amazon ever decided to enter you can forget 5% margin.

    Biggest risk I see is if and when it gets too big and bad debts starts to creep in, which is inevitable when you are in business of lending credit.

    Interesting to hear people's thoughts on BNPL (Buy now pay later) industry.

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
  2. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    Had another 400% gain on purchase price just to-day. It has first mover advantage. I have at a 65 fold increase in 3 years. APT was customer of Touch Corp who developed the software for selling phone card credit @ 711. APT was a customer, off which TCH bought 30% pre APT IPO. All the experts said it was tooo dear and to sell after it doubled to $3.40, which was the equivalent of $2.20 APT when they merged. My $1.70 purchase for TCH became $1.10 APT, 0.64 for 1 APT.
     
    Last edited: 4th Aug, 2020
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  3. orangestreet

    orangestreet Well-Known Member

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    I think Amazon has already made its entry in other countries with Amazon pay. Not sure sure if it is a like for like but it has credit facilities where you can pay it off over a period of time. In any event, with the money Amazon spends on R & D, it will not be something they would have missed due to lack of due diligence.

    For the company perhaps. The founders have made their cash (they cashed out a big chunk just recently) and will be living it up for the rest of their lives.
     
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  4. Froxy

    Froxy Well-Known Member

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    Ok ill bite. Looks expensive for sure but there is clearly an opportunity there.

    APT is growing revenue and customers at an exponential pace.

    Currently its just a race for market share but I did see somewhere that after Google search APT website is one of the biggest drivers to merchants websites. Clearly adding value and not bejng on their network would cost them business. Once the network is built out will be a moat IMO.

    Also fills a niche between VISA MC which as the network dont take credit risk, which is why they have struggled to react and the credit companies.

    Also, gen Y apparently dont like credit cards (I can't see the difference to be honest).

    I'm pretty sure your example Amazon got crushed during the GFC in a similar way to APT in March. And was constantly criticised for never making a profit.

    Also, bad debts, while a risk, they turn over their loan book every 6 weeks, new customers are limited in spend and good customers given the opportunity to spend more. Defaulters cut off. As customers love the product they will do their best not to lose access.

    Interesting ppl criticise APT but happy to buy banks and watch them pay a dividend whilst raising capital and diluting them at the same time whilst having almost the entire loan book exposed to Aussie resi property....

    I don't hold.
     
  5. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    Who are these people who criticise APT and are buying NAB (It is the only bank I know that raised capital recently) at the same time that you refer to above?

    FYI what you are seeing with APT is not the first time in history where people are chasing dreams.

    Look at CISCO example

    - CISCO goes public in 1990 with valuation of $224 million and revenues of $69 million
    - By the year 2000. CISCO reports revenues of $18.9 billion and becomes the most valuable company on earth with a stock market capitalization of $569 billion. - See this
    - Fast forward to 2020. CISCO reported total revenues of $52 billion and has a market cap of $200 billion. Less than half of what it was in 2000 with nearly 3 times more revenue than what it earned in year 2000 :eek:

    I am not saying APT will end up similar or worse than CISCO. All I am saying is for anyone buying APT just make sure to study history and be aware of the fate of stocks that had sky high valuations and what happened to them when market realises expectations baked in for growth is never going to materialise. If they are still happy to buy and hold APT good luck to them.

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
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  6. Froxy

    Froxy Well-Known Member

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    Yep agree it's all in the price you pay. Definitely looks frothy atm. My simple brain cant get past about $30 generously extrapolating their growth for 5 years and discounting back.

    NAB comment wasn't directed at you but there seems to be people happy to buy mediocre companies with poor to neg earnings growth whilst critiscising people buying companies growing revenue and running at a loss.

    This business actually shows some pretty compelling traits, network effects, scale, margins etc.
     
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  7. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    New highs keeps coming. Today closed $92.48 (up 11.79% :eek:)

    Full article here (Behind paywall)

    What's more with APT's market cap breaching $25 billion today it's the 13th largest company on ASX. Someone should call Thornhill and explain it's no longer about income the stock produces it's all about EV to sales ratios. Times have changed :D

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
    Last edited: 25th Aug, 2020
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  8. Snowball

    Snowball Well-Known Member

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    Where do you get 13th biggest?

    According to this list, when put in size order t just overtook Coles to be the 16th biggest...

    S&P/ASX 200 - Shares Prices & Charts
     
  9. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    Apologies it is 16th largest. Made mistake counting. Rate at which it is going wouldn't be surprised if it does become 13th largest soon.

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
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  10. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    There seems to be quite a few, and to be honest the more I look the more depressed I am that I never jumped on them.
    SZL was .35c in march, I seen it at .44c and thought nah too risky il put my money into the big safe caps like CSL - SZL is now $10.24 as of writing.
    Z1P is about to hit $10 from a 52 week low of $1
    SPT is now up to $1.66 from 25c only a couple months ago.

    BNPL or "payment" stocks have most likely made millionaires or at least given people a huge head start these last few months. I feel like I have missed the boat or a once in a life time opportunity but will keep an eye out and just start now.

    Biotech is were my current focus is and of course they have the potential to be a rocket ship as well. I have a rather large holding of RAC which all though is up 1900% still has the potential to 30 bag based on other feasible buyout transactions.
    Starting to accumulate a decent amount of MSB as well
     
  11. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    APT been a very huge winner. SZL too. Missed Z1P - I never liked it, am surprised at the market reaction of signing on ebay Aust tbh.

    Ant Financial probably big a big winner next month, I'd prob buy it over any of this BNPL stuff or neo-lenders on ASX atm (at IPO price).
     
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  12. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    Where would you go to get on board ANT or Alipay? i wasn’t aware but agree that looks huge..
     
  13. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    You’d have to subscribe to shares via Hong Kong.
     
  14. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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  15. Ouga

    Ouga Well-Known Member

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    "Trying is the first step towards failure" Homer
    Personally, I have looked at afterpay for our business but the fees are just too high in my opinion, especially since the max cap is low (around a grand from memory) - if the cap was maybe $5k or something it would maybe make more sense. It may be worth it for some businesses, just not for us.
    Would have done well buying some in March tho!
     
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  16. skyfall

    skyfall Well-Known Member

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    I'm looking into this one now.
     
  17. KinG3o0o

    KinG3o0o Well-Known Member

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    pump and dump stocks, buy on rumour sell on fact, i got out at $90, and feeling like **** due to it hitting $130, but now back to under $100 all is well.

    its really no basis for its price.

    like the food delivery/car hailing industry, just buy a few of the big boys, probably all survive, its very hard to have a single winner. unless the JV like grab and uber
     
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  18. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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  19. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Local Barber uses Square, seems a good platform for small busi
     
  20. Never giveup

    Never giveup Well-Known Member

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