SA Adelaide top of the charts (finally!)

Not saying I like it or hate it.
Just stating some facts that everyone seems to gloss over.
Everyone should do their own research before they invest in anything & make an informed decision.

 

Seems like the opposite to what you're saying when I looked at the latest auction results from the weekend. 88% clearance rate with a median price of 740k. A 3x1 house at Kilburn sold for 625k...
Adelaide Real Estate Auction Results - Domain

There was a news article in the paper today that said there are about 60 suburbs in Sydney that have median house prices of 3 million +. Adelaide has 1/3 of the population of Sydney but we have less than 60 suburbs that are 1 million +. Adelaide is very cheap in comparison to most other capital cities so I can't see how we are in a potential bubble!

 

That is a very good result. I noticed that 5008 is still heading north price wise. So maybe the dip is just in certain areas?

Dead cats bounce you know

 

I’m not overly surprised. It’s literally one street back from prospect. Looks like it could be split in two or hammerhead.

 

Actually sorry, might be about two streets back.

 

There is no dip!

 

Are you saying that because you want it to be? Or is there some evidence?

My recollection of auctions in Adelaide is they are not representative of the broader market, bit like Brissy

 

Evidence:


Adelaide is up 7.28% year on year and up 2.79% quarter on quarter. The poster saying Adelaide was in a 'dip' has literally used asking prices from one suburb from the entire city and used one quarter as 'evidence' that Adelaide is dipping. The video being referenced was a video by Channel 9 featuring auction results from the weekend where properties were selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars above the reserve price.

 

It was me that used the word 'dip'. In the context of maybe it is constrained to areas (my fav suburb 5008 is still travelling north). I also posed the question 'is the boom waning' after quoting a graph that surprised me as it has Adelaide moving from 'boom' to 'robust'. It is a forecast.



So you are in the camp that the boom is continual?

 

Hi boganfromlogan, thanks for sharing, the full report from Westpac (Housing Pulse Feb 2021) was a really interesting read (link below):
https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wi...1/2021-02/WestpacHousingPulseFebruary2021.pdf

Westpac seem to be predicting further strong momentum (price gains) in Adelaide over the near term, but "remain wary of how much longer this will continue".



Westpac have also published (on 22/2/2021) an updated prediction of dwelling price gains over 2021 and 2022, for Adelaide they now think the capital growth rate will slow down from +10% in 2021 to +8% in 2022. The graph below is from the full pdf here:
https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wi...21-02/er20210222BullAustralianHousingNote.pdf



But, I didn't take it as truth when predictions of -20% decline for 2020 hit the newspaper headlines, so I'm not going to take as truth any predictions of future capital gains either.

 

I am going to review 'dip' to 'blip'.

 

20% gains over the next two years pretty much everywhere, according to this forecast. Would be awesome if it materialised!
But what would be even more interesting to see is the rental forecasts. If they went up 20% too (unlikely), I could drop a day-a-week of work.

 

I'm seeing the rental market firm up as well, hopefully that'll translate to increases as I've received fairly similar rent for 5-6 yrs now.

 

Graph from Michael Yardney's PropertyUpdate published 1/3/2021 (full report via link below):
This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State 1st March

 

Wow Darwin- good on you! (I don't have any property in Darwin)



this data is also Michael Yardney's (same link as the post above).

 

https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/...PVEu3-461Y5wpmGBg1sfX6tJP1TaSRA8izqZQrnJw3n7o

Adelaide better return than Sydney and Melbourne added together

 

I can see it happening in Elizabeth. The median price in Adelaide is up to 510k in Q4 of 2020 and the amount of suburbs below 300k is diminishing.



Edit- Data Source Median house sales by quarter

 

OK the 4Q 2020 data is now out, so lets see who the winner is now (again, this not a comprehensive list obviously, only just the suburbs with 30 sales or more for the quarter). Below is the %change in the median house price between 4Q 2019 and 4Q 2020:
Aberfoyle park (42 sales) 1.24%
Aldinga Beach (59 sales) 6.58%
Andrews Farm (49 sales) 5.24%
Athelstone (39 sales) 3.14%
Blakeview (40 Sales) 3.80%
Craigmore (43 sales) 6.80%
Flagstaff Hill (52 sales) 13.42%
Golden Grove (37sales) 14.94%%
Hallett Cove (45 sales) 8.10%
Happy Valley (48 sales) 6.7%
Ingle Farm (37 sales) 6.43%
Magill (38 Sales) 0.31%
Mawson Lakes (49 Sales) 24.37% !!!!!!!!
Morphett Vale (109 sales) 11.65%
Munno Para West (46 sales) 1.25%
Parafield Gardens (60 sales) 17.18% !!!
Paralowie (54 Sales) 7.2%
Prospect (37 sales) 3.35%
Seaton (35 sales) 9.82%
Woodcroft (31 sales) 6.38%

winner is Mawson lakes - WTF! 24.37%

 

Basically no good areas under $300K anymore, i remember there used to be multiple.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-03/glenunga-home-sells-for-$750k-over-asking-price/13210064
House literally falling over with a asking of 1.25 ends of getting 2mil ! Crazy!