Adelaide or Brisbane with my budget

My investing philosophy is based around the capitals (and the opening post of that Newcastle thread with people flocking to opens etc is exactly where you wont find me). To me Sydney, and Melbourne look already cooked, Perth and Darwin still have the reversing lights on, love Hobart but is small and already had some decent gains, dont understand the Canberra market (politics). I have put my money into both Brisbane and Adelaide, settling in Brisvegas (Ferny Hills) this week and inner east Adelaide next week. Both were competitive enough with multiple beaten bids in both. Very happy with the services of @DaveM and @D.T. in Adelaide and @Andrew Allen in Bris. plenty of other great people on here but thats my experience.
PS I am not pretending to be the next Nathan Birch this will bring my total to 4 shacks.

 

That's what I am trying to say. Parts of Melbourne are cooked. You would be the greater fool if you bought into those markets now. Other parts of Melbourne look like they will keep going for 12 months or more.

How does an investor tell the difference? The question no one seems to be able to answer.

You would be speculating that your rising market is not at or near peak. This is also a risk and a gamble. There are parts of Melbourne that I would no touch right now. They have peaked in my opinion. The smart money has sold out of these areas. That's all I need to know really

 

It makes sense

It makes sense to me that Newcastle is going well (allegedly).
Is been in the doldrums for a while and the regionals are going to move after Sydney. People pushed out.

( whether it is booming now or not I really don't know I'm just making the point that it really wasn't going anywhere for a long time and it would certainly be one of the later places to move)

 

Share all the details when it settles ?

 

Lol maybe, cards glued to chest for now

 

No more talk about newy. Nothing to see there.

 

Quite a number of suburbs in melbourne went down last year

 

Yes agree, parts of Melb right now done are done and dusted for this part of the cycle. And other Melb markets are still moving up, with heaps of buyer activity and limited supply.

Big difference between risen and rising, I've always assessed what I see happening in the individual areas and specific property types i target. A reliable gauge for me has been developer margins. If there's lots of buyer activity, multiple offers, development, demand for specific property types in an area, but I can still acquire a dev site with a good margin then that potentially indicates a rising market. When the margins no longer exist and nothing makes sense...Its definitely risen..

I would not think that that type of strategy would be any more speculative than the typical 'buy in a flat market and wait for growth' scenario.

 

Unlike some of the posters in this thread, I am on the ground. I have watched the documentary and can confirm that Adelaide is rising.

 

Easy to find out
I might do this tomorrow if I have time, hopefully Alan my comment

 

Have you accessed equity? I am well aware what the brokers are doing in terms of accessing equity

If you are happy with your purchases and you are doing well then I am happy for you. But we are talking about markets that are currently rising, has nothing to do with anyone on this thread or what they have purchased or anyone providing business services to you? could not care less

Nathan Birch what has this person got to do with this thread, Please explain? What's her name .Pauline... lol

 

Hey @DaveM - where did you get this graphic from, and how frequently are they created? I tried looking for this exact information only a month ago, but had no luck in finding it?

 

Herron Todd White website. It's called month in review. It has clocks for both commercial and resi. It's also free.

 

Yes. I'm now waiting for January 2017 issue.

 

I beg to differ Newcastle is rising market but at middle of the growth period. Brisbane is at early stages of growth so is Adelaide. The fundamentals for Brisbane is more solid than Adelaide having said that the later will grow just not as well.

Why? Immigration to Brisbane and jobs growth potential is much higher in Qld. Its also has the flow on from the Commonwealth games and tourism

 

So if Newcastle is rising and in the middle of the boom then there is money to be made today/now, boom cycles can go on for 3+ years.

 

Investors we are all speculators, those buying in Adelaide and Brisbane are speculating that there will be growth it has to happen?

The name of the game is to get into the markets when they start rising to make money. Why would anyone buy at peak? this is how you lose money.

 

What are you basing that on? And why do you use one metric for one place and different for another?

Apparently already rising

 

Re read my posts and the attached thread on Newcastle.

 

Yep......just like the Central Coast...but that is further along...