A snap shot of what is happening on the ground in Melbourne

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Lisa Parker, 31st Jul, 2018.

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  1. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Yes I often see on here people saying something like don't buy (unless ppor) as if to say that any time is a good time for a ppor. Why would you want to buy a place and watch it drop? I guess the cost of paying rent is one factor?
     
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  2. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    My only issue with buying a PPOR at the peak is that you might be forced to buy in Werribee because it's all you can afford then 2 years later there are houses you can afford in Sunshine but your stuck in Werribee. Or you might buy a 1 bedroom unit then a year later 2 bedroom units are only 50k more than you spent on the 1 bedroom.
     
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  3. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    Thats not "on here "

    That is life..........................people buy or dont buy for reasons other than logical black and white cash reasons.

    ta
    rolf
     
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  4. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    OP said clearance rates are going up? Based on what? Yesterday was down?
     
  5. Patrick Bateman

    Patrick Bateman Well-Known Member

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    Also you pay more for the property then you could have if the prices fall further so quite simply your mortgage repayments are higher .
     
  6. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    What are stock levels looking like for spring? Can someone call their local agents and ask how much stock they have ready for September and report back here.
     
  7. Lisa Parker

    Lisa Parker Well-Known Member

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    If they are trading in and out in the same market and then there is no issue. a better idea would be to sell now and then wait for prices to pull back more if they are in an area where the prices haven't pulled back as much yet, lease back their own home or rent, then buy once their selected area has pulled back more.
     
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  8. Lisa Parker

    Lisa Parker Well-Known Member

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    To clarify - Melbourne market overall is pulling back, or has already pulled significantly back. I am not suggesting for a second that it is not (notice how I say some areas have pulled back 10%, some 5%). It seems to me that people are thinking I am saying that Melbourne is going off-about to go off??


    I covered off 4 different things that are occurring on the ground - all of those things are happening, I am in no way suggesting that the Melbourne market is heading upwards right now or in the very near future. I think people have taken the "opinion part" of my initial post in the wrong context, which I am going to try to clarify one last time.


    Intention # 1 behind the post - Giving visibility over what is happening on the ground. Because it is very different to what stats say, so I actually thought it would be valuable to some people reading these forums. I do this directly for my database every month because they asked me for it and they find it interesting, I just thought i would post it here too.

    Those who are actually on the ground and have shared what they are seeing have shown evidence to supported my commentary around what is happening on the ground. Those who want to just look at the stats are heavily debating - exactly what they are debating who knows, because I have said 4 conflicting things are happening. I have not taken a position on one specific thing - although people are picking up 1 specific point and taking me to task over it.

    The number 2 point to my post, which I do have a position on - is helping people move forward with their plans. The people who have been wanting to buy for a decade but have an inability to move forward and use all sorts of reasons why not to, including the market (no matter what the market is doing) as a reason to stay put and not implement their plans.

    I see happen every single week. It is painful and ultimately literally costs people $100's of thousands of dollars in lost opportunities. I am trying to help these people get "unstuck" from their cycle of behavior by having them focus on the bigger picture. Surely people would agree that over a ten year period, doing SOMETHING will yield a far better result than doing nothing at all? That is my intent in sharing what I did.

    I have tried to articulate this but am failing miserably and in addition to this it seems there is little point as some people here seem to be so committed to their points of views from their own perspectives and don't seem to understand that there are people out there who are not like them - other people are stuck, they have a pattern of behavior that is agonising for them and they miss an entire property cycle because of it. I have tried to clear this up but people don't seem to want to hear or understand.
     
    Last edited: 5th Aug, 2018
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  9. Lisa Parker

    Lisa Parker Well-Known Member

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    pretty good from what I am hearing and already seeing stock on market increasing along with auction numbers. Which is great because we are desperate for good quality stock. Spring will be a great indicator of the strength of the market. We are typically the busiest between now and Christmas.
     
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  10. Lisa Parker

    Lisa Parker Well-Known Member

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    based on the clearance rates that were available when the commentary was written.
     
  11. Marg4000

    Marg4000 Well-Known Member

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    Because a market downturn can be a good opportunity to upgrade.
    If the figures stack up, go for it!
    Marg
     
  12. Lisa Parker

    Lisa Parker Well-Known Member

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    sometimes people have other things going on in their life which mean it makes more sense for them personally to buy now. It still might be a logical decision, but logical based on other things

    ie)
    - aging parent that needs to be moved into a more appropriate home
    - a change in job or income that is known to the buyer in advance
    - a relocation due to getting kids into a certain school
    - sometimes people just feel its time to move and they will scratch that itch for no other reason than "because we wanted to"
     
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  13. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    I enjoy reading your observations, Lisa and I'm sure there are plenty of quieter others. It's a great thread!
     
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  14. Lisa Parker

    Lisa Parker Well-Known Member

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    at 11pm on the property clock OR when your personal situation requires you to do so or it makes good sense for your own life and situation at the time.
    Some people have the luxury (or they planned properly) to sell at the time that appears to be the best time, but sometimes life's circumstances override that. I think always plan smart and capitalise as much as you can, but don't get hung up if personal circumstances override.
     
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  15. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    I'm idly watching some of the auction results. I'm not in a position to buy, and I'm one of those people who makes excuses for a decade. :p

    A few places seem to be coming up for sale in the East, passing in at auction, and then get relisted at a higher price than is given in the Statement of Information.

    For example, 141 Maud Street, Balwyn North was listed with a range of $2.1 to $2.3 million, but passed in for $2.11 million last weekend, and is now listed for $2.45 million.

    It last sold for $1,938,000, so it's possible that the vendors are trying to recoup costs. But I do think that listing it above the guide price is a bit optimistic. Be interesting to see what it goes for.

    It's not the only place that I've seen attempting this trick. I suspect that the vendors will end up chasing the market down over the next six to twelve months.
     
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes, see this happen when sellers not realistic with sales price, not adjusting to market conditions
     
  17. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    meanwhile in carlton north - apartment - which is estimated highest at 955K sold - 1.104mil. 2 bedder when the previous number 3/887 sold feb 2017 - 860K. 6 digits is lower than 7 digits so yeah

    there are properties falling hard -like heidelberg heights - it is really taking a hit (700Kish from what at its peak early in the year was 900Kish) but there are i state still Records made every where - preston 1mil plus 2 weeks ago for a ex-housing comm in the coveted growth zone.

    and like wise in glen waverley.

    upload_2018-8-5_18-53-17.png

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  18. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    i personally think this will sell - you're talking about being 600meters to balwyn high school (top1 or 2 for Asians in melbourne) only downside i can see is the number 141 but that really can be easily rectified by changing it 139A. Villas off power st balwyn sell for 1.1 mil (2 bedroom single storey) on blocks of not even 200sqm.

    upload_2018-8-5_19-2-4.png
     
  19. Silverson

    Silverson Well-Known Member

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    Agree, there are many markets within markets.
    A year and a half ago you could buy 2bd 70s units in oakhill, Reservoir for low to mid 400s, they are now selling for high 500/low 600s as an example. Then on the other hand we have Northcote, where the wind has been taken out of its sails in my opinion. Seeing as you follow and have been active in this market you will have noticed homes such as Tanner grv on 620odd sqm of land pass in for 1.32m, now asking 1.45m, run down house, would of been snapped up for 1.6-1.7 a year cause of land alone
    Then you have Herbert st which sold for 1.53m, would of seen 1.8 last year, located on the top of Ruckers Hill. These are homes/land we both know have taken a hit and a large one at that, my guess for the above is the following, these would have been purchased by developers, at the moment with trades/builders being so busy and not to mention the professional costs going up also in the last few years the numbers are just not stacking up for developers, thus bringing prices down.
    Immaculate high end architectural, turn key single family homes are still selling, but all the stars must align I.e must be faultless, great locations, finishes etc and even then they are taking longer to sell.
    Agents I know personally are all singing the same song, they are all stating that stock is low and they are working harder with buyers to get deals done.
    This is concerning as stock is low (supply) and prices are reverting or flat, just imagine when more stock comes on the market, unless all these buyers magically appear to absorb supply we will se further falls. Might I add tighter credit will not be doing any favours to the buyer side

    Just my opinion. Thank you for your detailed contribution
     
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  20. kaibo

    kaibo Well-Known Member

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    because I want to find a place with a better location (200m closer to station from my place) and a better house than what I have. I love my place but to upgrade to something better I may need to wait up to 3 years due to how picky I am so yes I will try to buy and be ready for short term drop. But it's going to be a 20 year house to live in so no concern with short term changes. PPOR combined with knowing what I want is worth it.
     
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