A snap shot of what is happening on the ground in Melbourne

The issue is if investors cannot service debt how can they continue buying? more stock comes to market. FHB are just one market.

Also why would investors buy now when the yields in Australia are so woeful and markets are softening, it is not logical. If investors are buying now then perhaps they don't understand how cycles work....just my opinion, and I could be wrong

 

This is why I say there is no rush to buy property in Oz atm.

What we think is a bargain today could actually be a disaster tomorrow, in other words we pay too much, because the market has just started softening, bust cycles generally last longer than boom cycles. You wont know, why take a chance, its time to protect capital, what we made, or alternatively finding another rising market? HELP

MTR

 

No one knows definitively what happens in any market. You only make an educated assessment based on what u can interpret from what Data or knowledge you have. I never said any market is immune. I see some ips dev numbers stack up and I pretty sure is basic to anyone who looks at it and they’re far more than just normal returns

To say market last forever or u can time every single market accurately is kind of arrogant whether it be Asia, Europe, US or Australia as no one knows who high it will go or how low it will drop. Same like hong kong - where the same has been said for decades.

For me - it depends on what your own strategy is, and also what stage you and how much you have. if you have 100K, 200k, 500K, 1 mil, 2 mil your decisions will vary differently.

like if you ask someone like James hird wife to go buy 20 properties in the US, she would be unlikley to do so and rather just buy a toorak house to remodel. Why? simply because she can and yes it is blue chip.
Everyone only has 24 hours in a day - and if it means more management for someone who has x amount of dollars - it is just not that smart if you ask me, and would run.

Secondly if you are starting out and agrresive - yes i would do it trying to build income streams doing the hard yards.why not?

i would still buy if it suits my strategy and if the numbers work - it's is after all purely year 10 maths

 

Re read my post I never said I can time the market accurately, you said this

No one can do this? I said buy when its rising

 

No offence wasn't direct at you as per say - i was purely making my view + statement in general on timing of the market and the overall market - same as what i said about no markets boom or bust lasts forever.

 

No offence taken.

 

Hi @Lisa Parker

Surely the role of advice ON THIS FORUM is to help people improve their property investing and not just accept average results .

The reality is that what ever way you look at it , Melbourne ( in general ) is at or near the peak of the property cycle ( yes , there is a property cycle ) so even at the most basic level of analysis ( if you are interested in maximising investment returns ) , so IMHO , NOW IS NOT A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN MELBOURNE . If you’re looking at buying a PPOR , that could be a different story .

Generally I’ve had a good track record at picking timing and the first thing I look at is ten year averages . I want to buy when the ten year average is low and avoid buying when there have been good gains . Easy to do on realestate.com.au . I just had a quick look at various suburbs I know in Melbourne and places as diverse as toorak , Sandringham , Frankston and Hoopers Crossing these have seen significant increases over the last 6-7 years . Historically these returns are very unlikely to continue , so why buy in Melbourne ?

There maybe some pockets which will have further growth , but those sorts of places will require good local knowledge and a higher appetite for risk .

Our first purchase was at the peak of the boom is Sydney in the late 80’s so I know first hand the frustration of buying and then watching prices go sideways for many years .

Personally I wouldn’t touch it with a ten foot barge pole .

Given the current difficulties in building up a larger portfolio it’s even more important to get your timing correct to maximise returns .

Cliff

 

Yes, and I would have thought that selecting the best time to sell helps in maximising profits.

how do you select when to sell your properties?

 

Even debatable with primary residence, I know it may be keeper, and different rules apply. But imagine buying $1.8M primary residence in Syd/Melb today and it drops 10% in the next 12 months.

Not saying its wrong to buy, but sometimes its best to not get emotional and just be patient

 

The entire thread is people attempting to put lipstick on a pig and then other people saying, well, the pig is still ugly.

 

Yes, your right, but the fact that this is happening speaks volumes

Only 6-9 months ago the threads on Melb were about auctions clearance rates, sales achieving well over reserve/asking price and investor competition.

So whats happened in between ?

Why have auction clearance rates fallen?

Why are RE agents suddenly chasing buyers?

Why are DAs not selling?

Why is there more stock coming to market?

 

A polite request to please check facts b4 passing judgement (general in nature; not directed at anyone in particular).
The aim of the game is to garner as much fresh information as possible and over-ride preconceived ideas.

 

@WattleIdo +1 on that -

No one disagrees - some markets have been hit i can name 2 - Heidelberg west and Heidelberg west have gone from 900Kish at peak to now at 700kish peak - one can clearly state than it has dipped approximately 100-200K. and anyone who has bought at those levels looking to get out would have been hit. i personally think it wasn't good buy back in the day due to various other reasons.

Meanwhile in preston - there are DEV sites that are still flying as said 5.1 MIL and although i think the high end price suburbs would be the earliest to be hit - good sites esp the RGZ still fly - such as this one in "glen waverley" close to GWSC, the glen- which i might went from 1.7 mil to 2.47 mil.there was at least a 100 ppl turned up 6 bidders going from 100K bids down to the final $500 bids - a reasonable minded person would be able to conclude that it is in demand? or how are auctions run interstate - last one i went interstate had 2 guys looking around one holding a beer bottle and passed in. 2 doors down from this place was sold at 2.258 mil 10 months ago 30th Sep 2017. same size at 725-735sqm.very basic analysis is 2.47 mil bigger or 2.258 mil bigger?





so in summary , IMHO i WOULD BUY THE RIGHT PROPERTY FOR THE RIGHT PRICE IN MELBOURNE because i did finish year 10 maths and no one cares how a PIG looks - as long as it produces the goal you want. and yeah i wish i was old enough invest in the 80s and jumping around multiple states buying IPs.

 

You're one of the most on-the-ground people around. We shop in different postcodes but thanks for all the reality checks. Respect.

 

You are truly the King of Melbourne! Respect that you always back it up with very throughout research and fact rather than just plain opinion or general view.

 

SQM say that Melbourne is 49% overvalued whilst Sydney is 45% overvalued. How can melbourne be more overpriced than Sydney when a house in Sydney outer suburbs cost 1 million whilst in Melbourne you can get a house in Werribee for less than half a million?

A 2 bedroom apartment 7km West from Sydney cbd will cost you 650k whilst you can get that for 350k in Melbourne. Yet Melbourne is more overvalued than Sydney?

 

Lower wages?

 

Yep exactly Sydney’s average wage is significantly higher than Melbourne’s , Melbourne average wage is almost identical to Brisbane’s and hence Brisbane’s property is relatively much more affordable.