A snap shot of what is happening on the ground in Melbourne

Credit growth predictions are 1% less than last year's, ie) plenty of people can still access money, it's just harder for investors. Investors are part of the market, not the whole market.

People are still buying. We are still bidding against 4-5 other bidders at auction in certain locations.

 

Yes, I have been an investor and buyers agent for 20 years.

Your reporting echoes exactly what I said.

I shared the stat then I shared the reality of what I am seeing on the ground. Up to you if you take it or leave it, it's of no consequence to me. Just sharing for those who want an on the ground opinion because stats and reality are rarely in sync.

 

We just need to see what happens, I am not as confident as you. If investors are out of the market it will impact on markets regardless. Time will tell. I still think Melb is the best bet for long term hold.

I prefer to sit and wait, when markets change there is absolutely no rush to jump in just my humble opinion

MTR

 

In the past month; Carrum downs, Frankston, Seaford, aspendale, Bonbeach, pakenham, Northcote, prahran, Elwood, camberwell, Malvern, Windsor, Sunshine, sunshine west, Ardeer, Elwood, Richmond, Clifton Hill.

 

I am not anti properties bull but more of a realist, Melbourne and Sydney is a great place to invest but properties is a long term game, you want to be in the cycle where debt is cheap and easy
because that where you get the most gain, when the reverse is true then you got the most to lose.

but that just my opinions every one has their risk level of when to buy and sell, I just don't believe now is a good time to buy, at best it slow growth or stagnant at worse some serious price decline that how I see it

 

And you are a person who has a chance of picking the market, my comments are to passive investors who do not study the markets and think the can pick the time to move, they have next to know chance of getting it right and people on this forum fail to understand the difference between full time forum heads working a strategy and investing time into having their finger on the pulse and experience behind them, compared to the visitors who read the forum but do not comment or have any experience.

It's not the full time forum heads who ring me for my expertise, it's the people who buy 1 investment in their life time. They don't move fast and a lot gets in their way. They listen to the full time forum heads and try to emulate the strategies without the dedication to learning the craft. It's not likely they can pick the market, so I'm pointing out, for the sake of a 5% drop, why bother agonising over it.

 

Precisely my point. It's long term and because it's long term, I'm suggesting that passive investors dont get hung up on the threat of a 5% drop, especially when it's already occurred in certain suburbs . Credit is cheaper than ever, predictions are that it will remain that way, possibly for a very long time. We are not in a high credit environment.

All it would take is relaxed lending and Boom we are off and racing again.

 

Need to look at yields, currently 3-4%?? Interest rates are now on the rise

 

Commonwealth bank just lowered theirs .10% on most Fixed loans .

I feel its important to fabricate wealth as well.

Any one who just makes profit when tide is lifting all ships. Well....

If you can make money now. Imagine what you can do. My last purchase is Casflow Neutral in Sydney people said that can not be done.

Their is soo much up side in the area as well. My onsite valuation just came back and my loss is 0% The valuation also had rent $50 below what tenant was paying.

 

Thats good, but flat/falling markets can last for 7 years, just look at history of boom/bust cycles in Syd for example??? Just saying

Also rents do not always go up, its dependent on supply vs demand

 

What sort of supply do you think we have coming onto the market when there has been a tightening of credit for investors and investor lending has dropped 5%? Who is making up the missing rental properties? There is a target for migration, where will they live when they first arrive in Australia?

Have you seen the data of the boom/bust cycles and how long the flat markets have lasted for over history?

 

Latest core logic data shows Melbourne falls accelerating, right or wrong, sentiment plays a huge part

 

Time will tell, hope you are right, and I could be wrong
I dont expect major correction due to immigration numero uno.
Prefer to watch and wait

Yes, I do watch cycles

For example last bust cycle in Syd lasted 7 years

Perth - blue chip has not recovered since 2007

Melb had boom
Cycle in 2008 GFC would you believe to around 2010, and boomed again 2013

 

The credit crunch is not just impacting investors . Tightening of lending standards is also heavily impacting owner occ borrowers (increased bank assessed living expenses etc). Borrowing capacity has reduced approx 20-30% over the last couple of years . So for example someone who could have gone to an auction and spent $500k back then can now spend $400k , you don’t have to be a genius to figure out the downward pressure that places on prices .

 

Triton,

firstly no-one said that sentiment does not matter, it does and it is the reason why the market is the way it is right now.

secondly, I already said that some areas have fallen 10% yet you are arguing with me over the same point you are making.

Lastly, if you think that the stats are the only things that matter, then reading a post titled "on the ground" is hardly going to be of any value to you. You can throw stats at me as much as you like (and yes, I read them daily, so I am well aware of what they say), but it doesn't change the facts of what is happening on the ground. Surely you know that the WHOLE market is not THE market.

 

look up the market trends over time. If I happen to relocate them I will post them.

Just how far do you think the market will drop?

 

I guess what happens is investors/buyers sit on their hands, fear sets in as they just don't know whether prices will continue to fall, more stock comes to market.

 

No idea how far it will drop. I honestly think Melb is probably long term going to be the best market in Australia due to immigration and service industry

 

IMHO is that there is better opportunities to be had. To me, stage of entry into the market plays a crucial importance to our past success.

During the 7 or 10 years of down term in Sydney, people had ample of opportunities to pick and choose at a bargain price.
That same type of opportunities are still open everywhere apart from Sydney and Melbourne(just coming off a huge boom), so why take that risk? Why not just wait for the dust to settle first if you just want to put your money in those two?

Even if it start to pick up again it's not likely to go crazy as there is no end to the credit squeeze in sight.

 

there has been abit of headwind with the level of immigration recently, I can imagine it will get worst as people are sick of overcrawed roads, schools and trains. I think immigration level too have a cycle and we might already have reached the peak. On the otherhand interstate migration will likely to be a big driver in property prices in the near future.