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A really meaningful thread . APRAcadabra ..

Discussion in 'Investor Psychology' started by See Change, 13th Aug, 2015.

  1. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    I'm a big believer in applying share market technical analysis to the property market . Technical analysis is in effect a reflection of the people's emotional attachment to a specific investment vehicle . If a chart is trending up, it means more people are becoming interested ( and buying ) and vice versa

    In the share market it's recognised that once a share have started trending in a particular direction , the trend is more likely to continue than change direction . Once the trend is established it will usually take a significant change in emotion to stop or change that trend

    The property market game is the one investment that everyone in the country is involved in , in on way or the other, so the market is really a reflection of the psychology of the country as a whole.

    For me , the only dark cloud on the property market horizon has been the APRA changes . The banks have brought in changes which are only affecting a small percentage of aggressive investors ( who just happen to be a significant percentage of PChatters ,so we're well aware
    Of their impact ) . We've had some comments as to whether there is more to come , but so far the more to come has been the banks going to the markets to raise more capital . I'm not sure if ive seen any articles as to the impact this capital raising is likely to have of further changes to lending policies , but my reading ( happy to be corrected ) is that with the capital raising, the banks will come in line with the new requirements that don't actually come into force for a while .

    To me this makes all of the recent action a warning shot over the bows , rather than a broadside aimed to sink the market .

    The RBA recognises the importance the property market plays in Australia and I believe they would be more than happy for continued price increases ( at a slower rate ) as it creates growth in an other lacklustre economy .

    For me , the reality over the last weeks is the only place I've seen talk about the APRHA changes is on this forum and in articles in the financial press . I haven't heard it mentioned by anyone I know in the greater community . Quite the opposite , in the last month I've talked to people ( not forumites ) who are planing on buying investment properties . The latest was today we were signing our latest docs with our ( non investing ) solicitor . She mentioned that one of her friends was planing on buying their first IP in Brisbane with a BA who was charging 13k and asked us what we thought about BA's . I wrote propertychat on a post-it for her .

    So I'm happy to keep on buying while I can . Maybe the changes will slow Brisbane down a bit , maybe not . Another alternative is that it will slow Sydney , so people will look elsewhere and it might even , aphracadabra .....speed Brisbane up .

    Cliff
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 15th Aug, 2015
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  2. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    @See Change You might find this a little interesting. Its Paul Do's take on applying TA and FA to property buying. Its interesting and i like to use it in my mix of analytical approaches, but don't get too hung up on it either. Just not sure if it will be clear enough to read when uploaded.. (plug for Paul Do's book, "I buy houses", i thought it was a great read.) so don't sue me Paul

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  3. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  4. miked

    miked Well-Known Member

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    I don't wanna be a dick but ahpra is for health professionals (wife always thinks i'm talking about ahpra when i mention apra suck)

    Apologies if you were talking about the appaloosa horse reigning association :p

    Great site Leo, cheers
     
    Last edited: 14th Aug, 2015
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  5. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Oops .....

    I'm involved with both

    Cliff
     
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  6. Be Developer

    Be Developer Property Developer Business Member

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    @Leo2413

    May wantedit edit post with book pics... May breach copy right.

    @See Change

    Agree with you!

    There was a thread somewhere abt avarge investor buying 1-2 property tops.

    So average investors may not feel the full effect of APRA changes or adjust their budget and requirement in line with their approved amount.

    All I can see is lot of buyers are out there....and there are plenty FHB waiting on fence line for while. With favourable treatment to OO loans, I can see them coming out in heard.
     
  7. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Fixed the thread title and original post :p
     
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  8. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    My daughter's just bought her first and my older son is champing at the bit to buy his first . We have helped them with their deposits but he's got to wait until the money has been in his account for three months ...

    Cliff