A Pessimist's Guide to 2016

It is...and good for the states that produce lng. Id expect crude to reach the 100 a barrel mark in mid 2017. Watch for cruede to begin an upward march in h2 2016.
You heard it here first..merry xmas.

 

Umm nope. Not gonna happen. More crude will be pumped bu smaller producers if prices go up. And that will bring the price back down to earth.

 

@Xenia I 1000% agree with you. Our success is completely dependent on our own actions, regardless of what government does or doesn't do, whether the economy stalls or grows, NG stays or goes and everything else in between. IMO its all nonsense. The greatest determining factor in how successful we are (especially in Australia) is US.

 

It's more complex than that. Oil 101 by Morgan Downey is a good starting point for oil market economics. That said, I'm not making any macro calls, beyond long term oil price is a lot higher than $40bbl.

 

Yes the smaller players will pump more, but demand will outstrip suoply ..just like last time it hit 100. No difference. ..the main difference could be the rise of alternate energy...but this is not sufficiently advanced nor cost effective to make any noticeable dent in prices.

 

Yes, this works only if you talk of success in a relative sense. In an absolute sense we are all reliant on a socio-economic system. To pretend otherwise is first order thinking in extremis. However I can understand it may be useful to think that way from a motivational standpoint.

 

I know quite a few people who came from less than ideal socio-economic systems, reinvented themselves and feel they are highly successful today. Everything i have read and studied, leads me to believe WE are the greatest determining factor in our success. The seasons will always come and go, we can't change that. All we can do is change ourselves. Maybe my thinking is from an extremist position but i do know one thing: extreme targets call for extreme measures.

I respect your opinion, this is just mine.

Cheers.

 

Every year Saxo Bank publishes its list of outrageous predictions. These aren't considered to be that likely, but are possibilities that will could a significant impact.

Last year's were:

1. Russia defaults again.
2. Volcanic eruption decimates crops.
3. Japanese inflation hits 5%.
4. Draghi quits the ECB.
5. Corporate bond spreads to double in 2015.
6. Internet hacks smash online shopping.
7. China devalues Yuan by 20%.
8. Cocoa futures hit $5000 / tonne.
9. UK house prices crash.
10. Brexit (UK quits EU) in 2017.

I don't think that any of these actually happened, though I know that the Yuan has been devalued a couple of times in the past year. The last two would still appear to be open options.

The 2016 predictions are:

1. Euro rises to $1.23.
2. The Rouble rises by 20%.
3. Silicon Valley's unicorns crash.
4. Olympics turbo-charge emerging market's Brazil-lead recovery.
5. Democrats retain presidency, and take Congress in a landslide.
6. OPEC turmoil triggers brief return to $100 / barrel oil.
7. Silver breaks with gold to rally 33%. (There you go Guest.)
8. Aggressive Fed ignites meltdown in global corporate bonds.
9. El Niño sparks inflation surge.
   
10. Rising equality smashes the luxury sector.

I don't expect any of the above to happen, but you never know.

 

yes very true

 

R

Really, that's what you read from my comment.

#toohard

Merry Christmas, I'm done

 

I get what your saying mate.

Merry Xmas to you too!

 

Compare and contrast Singapore and Zimbabwe in the last 50 years to see effects of government.

 

I disagree. i think when many of the smaller US producers go bankrupt next year, that lenders will be much more wary of giving money to producers who need >$50bbl to survive.

 

Australia is not Singapore or Zimbabwe. We are very blessed in this country and there is more than ample opportunity for us to succeed. Having said that, take two people in Zimbabwe, 1 waiting for the government to change his life and the other takes action to change his own life. I know which man i would bet on to succeed.

Just my opinion.

 

My opinion too. Dependency on any person thing is powerless.
It means that that person has to do the right thing or you can't survive. They have to change or do things in a particular way that is right for you.
The truth of the matter is - THEY WONT! They never have and never will.

Are governments there to look after you? NO
Are pharmaceutical companies there to look after you? No - they are a business that exists to make a profit.
Is the health system there for your benefit - NO, it will not work for you every single time.
Are schools there to teach you exactly what you need in life - No - they are there to create taxpayers and the more focused the school is on academic performance the bigger the taxpayers they create.
Are you ever going to change any of these systems? - GOOD LUCK.

Do you want to be part of these systems or do you want to be educated enough to know what will work for you, what wont and make the choices that are right for you instead of blindly following and being a slave to a system that does not even value you as a human being?

Regardless on what happens in Zimbabwe - every individual has a CHOICE to WAKE UP.

 

How about we take 2 governments in Zimbabwe.

Government A through strong civic institutions, provides a robust healthcare system so that the child mortality rate is low and preventable diseases through vaccinations are nutrition are kept to a minimum. Then through an education ministry, provides access to at the very least affordable childcare with a syllabus that will put them in good stead to join a workforce. One in the workforce people use infrastructure provided by long term planning of governments as a springboard to be productive members of society. The workforce in place with a strong, systematic and transparent legal system providing checks and balances of the executive branch. Order is maintained by a well paid and professional police force, external defense by professional military. Regulatory barriers are in place to prevent corporate monopolies as is a corporate watchdog to prevent fraud and malpractice towards consumers...and so on and so on.

Government B is a despotic dictatorship ruled by crony capitalism transferring the wealth of the nation to a noveau riche who deposits their ill gotten gains in Swiss bank accounts. Healthcare, education are not existent with treatable diseases running rampant so that many are dead before even given the choice of 'working hard and not relying 'on the government'. Phony skirmishes are waged against faux enemies to maintain some kind of collective range against an external force to distract the huddled masses from the corruption of their leader.

Governments can and do have a massive role in our success. We just dont realise because regardless of political bents, our governments have been good compared to most. There is a reason that our cities are constantly rated as the most liveable in the world. Reasonably good government provides the springboard for our own success.

 

@radson I agree with much of what you are saying mate. Of course having a government that is decent, with decent healthcare, education and all the rest will make a difference. I'm not disputing that.

Problem is too many people use parts of the above as an excuse not to take responsibility for their life. They join the blame game and self pity circle. I've seen it a million times. Australians are well and truly blessed in this country and yet there are so many people around who are still playing the blame game for their life not turning out the way they wanted it to.

People who generally succeed at what they set out to achieve, regardless of the political framework, have a different philosophical approach to life than their equal counterparts.

That's my opinion.

 

We do have an awesome government - agreed, all you need to do is drive a car and see that everything is organised and updated.
We also have a great health system.

There are some fantastic pharmaceutical drugs around that can get rid physical pain instantly

I still would not depend on any of them as the only solution to a problem - I may consider parts but make my own decisions.

I have an awesome husband - I'm not dependent on him but he is awesome.
I want him there but don't need him.

The awareness that the power is in you is what we are talking about here, not who is the better or worse government.

 

I don't think I've ever seen anyone on this site propose to sit back and wait for the government to make them rich, so not sure why that argument is being presented. Strawman 101.

The point is to counter the tiresome blather cult of self "mindset" dogma that is prevalent among some posters.Yes, at the end of the day you are ultimately responsible for your own success, in a relative sense. That is unarguable.

However, let's not forget it's the very system that some rail against that has supported their success, a hard one to swallow for many.......This is perhaps the cause of the view that there is a strict dichotomy in place....can't be both can it?? No!!! It's all me me me!

Lest this be taken for a "wage slave / defeatist" type raining on a parade, My day "job" (I am a director/cofounder) will turnover $20m this financial year and employs 15 staff. And that is just my main interest, I have others.