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A Pessimist's Guide to 2016

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Graeme, 21st Dec, 2015.

  1. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    Bloomberg have posted what they entitle a pessimist's guide to 2016. It covers a number of doom and gloom scenarios, including:
    • Oil climbs to $100 a barrel
    • The UK leaves the EU
    • Banks are hit by cyberattacks
    • The EU crumbles under anti-immigration fears
    • China's economy falters, whilst its military rises
    • Isreal attacks the Iranian nuclear programme
    • Putin sidelines America
    • Climate change heats up
    • Latin America enters a lost decade
    • Trump becomes the US president
    The last one is worrying. Here's footage of what Trump would be like if he took over.

     
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  2. Xenia

    Xenia Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    We will all survive regardless Graeme.

    America is effed no matter who steps in as president.
    The government has no long term control over free markets.

    Buddha, Jesus and Mohammed stepping up as presedents at the same time would not make a difference.

    Be cashed up, be prepared.
     
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  3. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    What does "Climate Change heats up" mean?

    Climate change could "ramp up"

    Global Warming would heat up, I would have thought.

    Grab it and kiss it goodbye folks.
     
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  4. D.T.

    D.T. Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Isn't oil going up in price actually a good thing, since this is a commodity we sell?

    Trump being president is prob a good thing too.

    Pretty indifferent on all the others.

    Fairly irrelevant what happens in the world anyway - can always find opportunity. Keep on keeping on :)
     
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  5. piN00b

    piN00b Member

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    Don't forget about zombie apocalypse too.
     
  6. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    And I thought I was totally alone here....:)
     
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  7. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. Why do you say that trump being president is a good thing? He is a populist who is trying to play with the rednecks and nothing more. Guys like that cannot rule the economy well, they only make promises...
    And another one. Maybe I have missed something, but since when did Australia become an oil exporting country?
     
  8. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Trying to wrap my head around this statement...

    We sell gas not oil.
     
  9. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    LNG prices are linked to crude. At $100bbl STO / ORG / WPL / OSH etc are flying....... I'll dig up a chart later
     
  10. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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  11. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Can you expand on this a bit ? Keen for your macro take on how America is "effed" but we will be ok.
     
  12. Xenia

    Xenia Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    there are always individuals who make money when markets shift. The economy is a cycle, it has always been cyclic not linear, money shifts it does not disappear.

    Do not ever be dependent on the government doing the right thing.
    Governments are so small in comparison to the wealth, knowledge, wisdom of collective private people, yet we are standing there impotent with our hands out waiting for the government to do the right thing and choose the right leader not realising that we already have all the answers.

    I don't buy any of this.
     
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  13. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    wow. ok. cool.
     
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  14. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Yeah they are linked but its not a 100% direct link to the spot market and the amount available on spot is less than 10%?? . Depends on the contract etc. I attended a presentation on some of the variables and considerations several weeks ago as I work for one of those companies you mention. RBA has a good brief on the whole process.
     
  15. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    +1
     
  16. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Yep, depends on contract sure, my point is that $100bbl crude is good for Australian LNG exporters due to price link. No biggy.
     
  17. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Totally agree.
     
  18. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    This is why Somalia is so successful :)
     
  19. wategos

    wategos Well-Known Member

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    Not so bad:
    • Oil climbs to $100 a barrel
    Disasters:
    • Israel attacks the Iranian nuclear programme
    • Trump becomes the US president
     
  20. Xenia

    Xenia Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Riiiiight
    Ok then
    Merry Christmas
     
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