A newbie Investor in Sydney

Hi everyone, I have bought my first property in Sydney two years ago and the second one after 6 months (in Sydney) using the equity made by the Property 1.
Then wrong advises from news,family and friends made me stop my journey till 2 months ago which I started educating myself about Property Investment and Possible strategies suitable for my situation.
Now buying my third property (again in Sydney) I dont really know if what Im doing is right or I was just lucky. (Im analyzing the data mainly from Realestate.com.au and predict the CG which has worked well)
I have also helped 4 families to buy their properties and they all are happy with the selection of areas and the strategies I have proposed for them. But I still dont know if I could/can do better.
Now looking to create a massive portfolio (quality and quantity both).

I have no mentors, and thats the main reason Im here to talk to / learn from property investors. Ready to learn as I believe that if right now I could know what I will know/learn in 2 years I could get closer to my goals in 2 years. I could also give better advice to others who keep asking me questions about Property Investment.

More info:

• Single
• Motivated
• Willing to take risks
• Working 7 days a week
• Have worked with Trading Platforms (like FXCM) just to get familiar with the concept of the market and find out what all that fuss is about.
• Low CF
• Can do attitude / wont take NO for an answer

Ok i better stop typing in, its starting to look like a resume

 

Hi Sam, welcome! Come along to the meetups... checkout the meetup section.
Generally most of us aren't buying in Sydney at the moment as we have had a huge boom over the past few years. But some strategies could still work here. It would be nice to meet you in person!

 

Hi Sam and welcome

It sounds like a great start but I’d think carefully about buying in Sydney now - the market is peaking. There’s other areas that are coming of a lower base that will offer better opportunities.

 

Welcome Sam... Agree with the others above that you shouldn't expect CG in coming years in Sydney.. Prices have been dropping last 6 months..

THe world is your oyster (outside sydney).. like your attitude

 

thanks everyone
I havent bought yet so its not too late...
What about the areas in Sydney which havent had a huge growth? I believe that after each move (whether up or down) the trend will usually change towards the opposite direction, unless the demand is so high that it overcomes the technical aspect of the market. Its online trading 101 and I assume it goes with all markets, correct me if Im wrong.

Thanks for the info but I havent seen the prices going down during last 6 months, as a matter of fact I revalued my property twice to get the equity out and the one I got last month was higher than 5 months ago.
it might have happened in some areas though which I am not aware of. Even If thats the case and the prices have dropped during last 6 months then isn't that an indicator of the prices willing to go up?
I would love to invest in a better place but I dont really know where would have more potential to grow

PS: before coming to this forum I was analyzing the data for different areas in sydney (individually) and other estates, I followed the trend and took a lot of factors into account. I came to conclusion that we are going to have a boom starting in Fabruary 2018. So obviously you think Im wrong. Am I? really?

 

Which areas haven't had growth recently?

Inner city areas have dropped by 5-8% in last quarter...

Essentially you were / are buying on momentum in Sydney market after a 10 yr bull run ( for a start)

Otherwise on a longer time horizon the below will affect Sydney the strongest as it has run the hardest...

1) 5000 yr interest rate lows with massive credit growth (how does this turn around)?
2) tail end of female participation in workforce (increasing borrowing power in households) - this has peaked
3) Massive growth in foreign investment (taxes imposed and macroprudential controls have been imposed)
4) Australian economy hits new record highs in last decade of 35yr boom (now at full employment)

Obviously this is from a macro perspective and there will always be cracking deals within any market. IMO downside risk is massive in Sydney compared to other markets.

I like Perth and some coastal areas.

Good luck

 

Your expecting a 2018 boom based on, what? Extrapolating the trend? Run the same analysis to 2008 or so and see if you would have predicted the sydney boom.

On the other hand, if you trust your own analysis, buy everything you can in sydney. Therell always be peope who dont agree with you. The only outcome that matters is whether you make money.

 

Welcome to the forum Sam. Good work on your portfolio so far!

 

Thanks for the information, but I just checked the prices in inner city NSW 2000 and found out that the prices have gone up constantly even if the last quarter. Can I ask what your source is? Can you send me a link please? If that’s the case then things can be different than what I think.

Besides,
Dont you think the 4 “macro perspective” reasons and facts you have mentioned are more focused on fundamental aspects of the market?
As you have mentioned there are “cracking deals” which I would call them Texhnical Analysis of the market. I’m trying to understand which one will overcome.

Once again I really appreciate you replying to this thread and providing me with the information.

 

Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying that my prediction is right, I’m saying that’s my prediction taking fundamental and technical aspects of the market both into account.
Immigration and growing Sydney from west more than what people think, it’s crazy! And they need a property to live in.
Negative news which always works the other way for different reasons, investors/developers are not as active as they were in Sydney and they started development in Brisbane which caused over supply.
10,000 grant + the stamp duty discount which helps the affordability to buy and we all know what that means.
Employment rate and currency rate. Apart from all these examples, just looking at the trend says a lot.
But again, I’m not saying that I’m sure what’s gonna happen, I’m no one! Just a newbie in PI.
I’m here to tell other freely what I think about the market and hear what they think.

Thanks for your reply and pointing out the factors, I really appreciate you spending time to reply to this thread.

 

Thanks Tony
My pleasure to be here and talk to you guys. I noticed you work in a buying agency. Can I know how things work with you guys?

 

welcome to PC @Sam333, congratulations to you for taking actions. ppl lost opportunities due to lack of actions. Property Cycle, Compounding, and leveraging are working either for us or against us, from what you said above, you have used these three well to your advantage.

there are lots of experienced investors on PC, great source of info and advice.

maybe come to one of the meetups in Sydney to chat with ppl in person, lots of inspirations.

 

WelcomeSam I think Brisbane's a better place to invest rather than Sydney as the prices are peaking up now...

 

Thanks Eric, can you inbox me more info about the meet ups and the time they are held? Thanks

 

Hi Gockie,

Thanks, Can you inbox me more details about the meet ups in Sydney? Cheers

 

The meetups... look in the meetups section of the forum.

 

@Sam333

Networking & Meetups

 

Hi @Sam333. You mentioned that you did most of your research using RE.com.au. What sort of research was this? Just looking at prices and the various properties on offer?

 

Hi,

mate, what do you exactly mean by "what sort of research was this?" do you mean "what method has been used to analyze the market?"

You may wanna google this "How to analyse a market trend line?"

PS: realestate.com.au is not the only source, is it?

 

Sam, have you looked at the trends since about the year 2000? Also, i'm going to suggest SQM research as a free source of trends by postcode and a number of other metrics (Pity it looks like they don't cover more than the past 10 years).

Sydney may go flat or nowhere for a while. Nothing much pricewise happened between 2004-2009 - some areas of suburbia went backwards after the boom by up to 25% - after a long and big boom from around 1997-2003. And Sydney really boomed 2013-2017. If you stick to the CBD you may have a different result, but I don't think you'd see too much more than 5% growth rates and I feel this is being a bit on the generous side.

I'm sure you'll find images of longer term trends if you google it. Generally you'll see a lot of price growth in a few years and flatness or little growth in many other years. We've just gone through the boom. Now the market has returned to a normal market, (a normal supply and demand balance) so prices aren't going to go up much in Sydney.