A message from John McGrath

This

 

Hey dont steal my crown!

 

What are the consistent behaviours that we can observe over 100 years?

We don't have sufficient data to analyse property prices accurately further back than the last few decades.

 

I don't spend so much time and effort analysing CG, I create equity through subdivision, and look to build dual income properties, CG speculation isn't for me.

Same can be said for Australia's debt;


The Gross national debt has increased 10x in 10 years, if that trend continues we will owe 5 trillion by 2027, is our economy growing at the same rate? It definitely is not.



Where in this scenario do you see significant CG growth? because I can't see it anywhere frankly.

 

2 things:
1st thing - I have Australian data for the last half century (50 years) that can be analysed. Taking Sydney for example (although I have all the other capitals as well) -
Year, Median House price
1970 $18,700
1980 $68,850
1990 $194,000
2000 $287,000
2010 $525.000
2019 just under $1M

2nd thing: If the last 50 years Australian records are not enough for you, and you concede given our historical links to the Commonwealth, that house prices probably behave similar to England and Wales, there is a Domesday Book you can study dating back just over 900 years! It contains the great land survey from 1086, commissioned by William the Conqueror to assess the extent of the land and resources being owned in England at the time.

1. Property prices move in cycles
2. The medium to long term trend is UP!

 

But haven't you heard, it is going to be DIFFERENT this time .

 

Yes I have heard this......a few times BUT I don't subscribe to this theory

 

According to the experts property price data isn't very reliable even that far back.
Cameron Kusher on Twitter

There was also a huge bubble that formed in the 1890s. Whose to say that these smaller cycles in recent decades are not all occurring within one larger cycle that will eventually crash prices to a level they won't recover in real terms from for 60 years (as supposedly occurred last time, if you believe the data collection we had over that period)?



If you think property prices will increase over the decades ahead as they have over previous decades, then I refer you back to an earlier comment:

Do you think interest rates will see a similar decline? i.e. from ~4% to less than 1%
Do you think private debt to GDP will double again? i.e. from ~200% to ~400%
Do you think prices to income will rise as extraordinarily? i.e. people in Sydney paying 24x income instead of 12x

 

Dunno

Dunno - never think about it

Dunno

There's a saying that a man with an experience will beat a man with an argument every time. It sounds to me from your posts that you have an argument (which is fine). But I have an experience, believing what I believe, and taking action, that led to me making 7 figures out of property alone. Many others with the same views have achieved the same or better results. I'm no-one special. I hope you do equally as well or better too Joseph.

 

Well I'd much rather hear about the experiences, but the article that started the thread and most posts so far are coming from a historical data (argument) perspective, not talking to a lived experience.

I've got exposure to enough property that 7 figure gains should be possible (one day), but am hoping it comes much quick through business

 

There's no trick to it. In my case, after much research on historical performance, I just stretched and bought as much as I could and rode 2 RE cycles of (now) historical data. Hanging on when things get tough is mostly about mindset - not: selling for fear, thinking it might be different this time, listening to well meaning (but wrong) economists, following the herd, being influenced by concerned family members and so on.

 

If you want you can read all about part of my property journey here: The Propertunity Interview

I wish you well on both counts. I look forward to reading your story one day.

 

Too many ppl trying to understand the roots. Why bother . Just pluck the low hanging juicy fruits. Who cares why the fruits grow. Grab em when you can.

Since i started investing 18 years ago I've never paid any attention to macro economics, income to blah blah blah levels, ratios, affordability indexes and the plethora of economic distractions . And i am 100% certain if I allowed myself to be guided by that path, I'd have robbed myself of millions of dollars .

 

how true, kind of academic smart vs street smart, good in theory with lack of practice vs practical experience with focus on deal by deal.

only the end result matters.