A Greek drama

Such an eye opener to read views of Greek people who have experienced through the last 5 years of austerity.... Of no jobs, of despair, of not wanting to start a family becuase there is no hope for the future...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...ce-euro-referendum-100-greeks-give-their-view

 

thought this was interesting as well...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-30/dal-santo-greek-debt-crisis-was-predictable/6582546

If a country or region has not power to devalue, and if it is not the beneficiary of a system of fiscal equalization, then there is nothing to stop it suffering a process of cumulative and terminal decline, leading, in the end, to emigration as the only alternative to poverty or starvation.

 

Very good article by a LSE Professor.

If Greece leaves the euro and melts down, who would really care?

Greece is not only a relatively small part of the eurozone economy -- amounting to barely 2% of the aggregate GDP -- but is also a surprisingly closed economy with quite a low propensity to import. Small economies typically have a high trade-to-GDP ratio, but that is not true of Greece which is at the bottom end of the scale among EU countries.

Some consumer goods manufacturers in major exporting economies like Germany might lose some sales if Greece implodes, but they can easily make them up by selling to other parts of the world. Greece in short is a long way from being "too big to fail." On the contrary, it is too small to matter. When Detroit went bust recently did anyone seriously think it would inflict much harm on the U.S. economy?

Hahaha. Tell us what you really think....

There is a saying -

Fool me once - Shame on you. Fool me twice - Shame on me.

In short - don't throw good money after bad. Cut Greece loose and let them suffer the consequences.

 

Mark I believe main concern right now is not so much Greece but whether it encourages the other countries like Ireland and Spain to do the same. I think this is the more frightening prospect.

 

The difference is though.... Greece is heading in the wrong direction & making no attempt to fix their economy or culture.... all the other countries are trying their best to dig themselves out of a hole & for the most part are succeeding.

The converse is that if Greece is let off the hook, then the other countries that are suffering a degree of austerity will want the same treatment as Greece. Would that engender the right culture for the next generation ?

 

Yes good point. They will want to wait and see how it plays out first, and they are unlikely to envy what Greece becomes 12 months from now.

 

the headache is the IMF.

just like the IMF got their grubby little fingers into Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, Haiti, Ivory Coast, South Korea, Mexico, Zimbabwe and even Britain - they want a slice of the corporate pie in socialist Europe.

Greece was their back-door - which is why Germany wants to stave that off at any cost.

Some folk may remember my parrotting on about gold-backed SDRs (special drawing rights) making up the currency for all international trade in the future. The IMF loan specifically discusses the SDR 1.2bil repayment - which is 1.6bil EURO and 2.3bil AUD.

The Greek default and the difficulty surrounding what happens to a currency like this this will be a huge catalyst for a gold-backed SDR.

Ever since Greece took the IMF loan, Germany has wanted all of its gold repatriated - a likely outcome is a gold-backed SDR from the IMF loan to the weakest member of the Eurozone.

So watch the gold prices if it is ever implemented.

 

Weimar Republic was the worst case of this - except they couldn't emigrate.....

 

What would be the purpose? Rental income? No one has money to pay. CG? You won't see any of that for a very very long time. So long away that you may as well buy the property in your grandchildrens names because they are the only ones who might see some gains. If the Greeks exit the Euro expect at least 40 years to get back to where they were 10 years ago.

 

australian federation would also possibly work if equalisation was sufficiently implemented and the states broken up into much smaller states.

 

When the drachma gets reintroduced, the prices for greek property will be dirt cheap. Coming off such a low based, it wouldn't take much growth for % gains. Major risks would be continued drachma devaluation and ability to get the funds out of the country

 

Over the past five years, an estimated 200,000 Greeks, or 2% of the nation’s population, have left the country to search for work. But as the uncertainty in Greece worsens, people are sending out pleas for help to Greeks living abroad.

link

 

Here are some good deals for Greek proprrty.
Would make for some good water cooler conversation with one of these in your back pocket.
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/grc#eng/sales/grc/3-pg/45-pp

Alternately , you could opt for a 1 bedroom apt in Sydney for the same price...

 

Interesting looking at gold prices through this whole ordeal. Flat lining to declining so far this year.

 

Yes, I would have thought the volatility would have increased the gold prices..maybe it will if they vote NO

 

Maybe because the US have to repurchase the gold they sold that wasn't theirs? Unsure why a repatriation would need to take so many years.....

 

I think it's more likely that the market has priced in uncertainty of this.?the Greek drama has been going on for a long time and the market knows no matter what the vote is, there will be continued uncertainty in greece and the EU.

 

So far looks like the majority of greeks (61% i believe) have said no the the offerings put to them last week.

Will be interesting to see what happens now!

 

The no vote has it. The A dollar is hammered as a result.
Let's see what's next. No one knows..my money, although not willing to bet more than a couple of bucks, is on a new deal by EU and athens.

 

"oxi" it is!

will be interesting to see how it gets unfolded!

there is no mechanism in place for "Exiting Eurozone"!

Reputation of EU vs Ppl power of Greece