ASX Shares A Closer Look at the Big 4

Not a typo, this was a long range forecast I first posted almost a year ago based on early stages of the pattern. CBA may not hit that price level but the timing for pattern completion on all Big 4 is spot on at this stage. As I mentioned in an earlier post ANZ and WBC have touched the forecast price level accurately but CBA and NAB are still hovering above their forecast levels.

SPY is most likely about to complete this minor degree leg higher and reverse. XJO will have another one or two days up then reverse also, 6,000 area = strong resistance.

 

Everything has a price and I think it already price in and it run too hard toward the end of Wall St close as people expecting google good earnings, I took the opposite view that Google result wont be as good as the market expecting and I was right and a bit of luck, their earning is good but their margin compression and rising cost is not a good sign so down she goes and taking the index with it.

at this point in time both dow and asx short is in the money.

I dont need a large pull back, only need 40-50 pips on the Dow and ASX 10-20 pip target, right now I am 7 pips profit with ASX, and I just close Dow short, $400 for an hour work.
I wait for ASX open before I decide to close or be greedy and wait for a bit more, either way the position will be gone today make it clean slate for another start tomorrow.

tomorrow when I get up early I evaluate and taken in all the information my brain can handle then I decide short or long

Nothing smart to what I do I just make a informed decision on the collective information I have
and bet against or for the market, sometimes I am wrong but most time I am right and that how I stay ahead

 

CBA is just above 3-5% a minute ago,the other 5 banks I invest in one above 4% the lower end mid 2 % and like other Bank equities stand alone holders we have been waiting for this day even AMP with all bad press over the past year is up over 7% top day in the free world as Academia fooled everyone again..

quote ..
Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love,,close enough on the surface ,but to the non-sucker ,
not exactly the same thing..
..Nassim Nicholas Taleb..

 

As of 10.45 NAB up 3.75%, Westpac 6.55%

 

Interesting to see if this is short covering with price retreating somewhat later in the day or a more prolonged move upward. Perhaps a bit of both?

All a mystery to me nowadays but a bit of fun watching the usual short termism at play. Makes me appreciate the beauty of a longer term focus.

 

That moment when you log onto your brokerage account and notice the blue chips are acting like spec stocks (5-7% gains)

Couldn't give a rats, as long as my dividends don't get touched it's all smiles here.

 

Quite frankly I’m feeling despondent about the market given all the enthusiasm today. I’ve been waiting for the mother of all Elliot Waves to hit the market:

 

Come on it's no mystery ,there must times when you must at least think about the 100k up days like today when you were a stand-alone day trader as most ""LONG-TERM""INVESTORS within this Intellectual village read everything different ..Myself I don't give a stuff what other people invest in because over time most are more likely to fool themselves.

 

I’m gutted.

I’m waiting on some funds to come in, and so was hoping to pick up a few bargains.
Plus it’s mid year reporting season, when some divs (and hence DRPs) are going to be activated.
I’m now getting less for the same

Damn my first world issues

Blacky

 

That would assume I’m capable of remembering anything.

 

The doors always open on the dark side ,I can find you a seat as mister market and my long-term mate Shylock will just stand there waiting as some pursuits are much duller once your on the inside..

 

powerful rally but early days but I have to conceived defeat undo my good dow short
make $400 dow, lose $300 asx short covered rally make pissy $100, try again tomorrow

CBA nearly triple the daily volume average that said it all don't stand in the way of short covering for now

 

Show me the shorters yachts haha!

In all seriousness I have to agree with you, it is early days and I do expect a pull back. Good news is I won't be selling regardless so I don't particularly mind what the sp does. I must admit it does feel nice to see a sea of green, but truth is a sea of red will mean I will get more shares for my money, this leads to more dividends, this translates to reaching my passive income goal sooner.

Good to see some life back in these sections of the forums!

 

Do you sell mate or just accumulate?

Would you mind sharing what percentage of your portfolio consists of ETF's/LICs ?
Thanks in advance
p.s has been good reading your posts over the last few months/year, I can appreciate your solid mindset and optimistic approach

 

Best lessons in my very short investment journey of about 4 months so far is "be greedy when those around you are fearful" and "the stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient". Loving that I backed myself and brought WBC & CBA although all the messages were negative at that time. I made my own mind up based on my analaysis and insights. Feeling happy but pretty sure another pull back will be here soon enough, possibly a large one towards end of Feb......crystal ball claims though, time will tell

 

Being not one to rock the boat but no problem it's a very simple portfolio 80% spread over several blue chips banks one held from mid 1995 all held within the reinvestment 2 times a year and I only started to collect the div's when all the problem's surfaced with the "RC"" but should have left it in there because every time the div's came back in I would reinvest it all every time they looked above 10% yield..

Do I sell yes,but I have 2 portfolio the one above which are 13 blue chips high end solid Australian companies and the second one where I target start-up in the first phase of development 4 within the medical green smoko
and a few others less then 10 ..Im waiting for one to come back from a trading halt last time this happened it went up over 350-400% just on the media spill..

EFT'S X LIC'S ---ZERO--- I like total control and I know full well I can stuff it all up just the same as someone leading new investors up the garden path by someone who thinks they are more unique ,that's where the mental clarity over time plays a big role..If you like to read ..

John Maynard Keynes - Wikipedia

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Wikipedia

Robert J. Shiller - Wikipedia

good luck..

 

Well done ,and it is only the start once the soul starts rebelling against entrapment ,plus all the banks always run upwards prior too the cut-off period before the div's then fall the day when the div's are paid ..imho and good luck ..

 

Thanks Strangely I never really cared that much about money but now I'm driven to create a passive income stream to live off. I've a long way to go but I've started. Yes I think CBA will bring all the banks up then ex dividend who knows how far they will fall? I guess it doesn't really matter as long as you buy low sell high (sounds so easy but I get that's it's not).

 

Even easier is buy don't sell, don't have to try buy low, don't have to try pick a time to sell, just buy, buy, buy some more