ASX Shares A Closer Look at the Big 4

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@Cityman appreciate questions, earlier forecasts for next support levels for indices are in this thread but you will need to scroll around to find them all.....

World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

Updates for XJO - would be surprised if 5,600 got taken out in this leg down, later on yes but not now. If it does smash through there that would be a pretty nasty bearish sign but it does not look likely to happen. We are too oversold already and support is quite strong here. More likely to have a messy and volatile bounce before hitting 5,600 back to 5,940 area or maybe touch higher by mid - late Nov. Then a collapse again,

Since most people are more familiar with XAO - All Ordinaries Index, here are the major support levels expected for XAO (XJO translates to approximately 95 points lower than XAO at present - currently 5,664)

Notice how perfectly the red arcs called the top!! This chart was first built in October 2016 and I have published it here and elsewhere many months in advance of price hitting the red arc. This is not voodoo ....it is based on laws of nature and growth fractals.



Re Gold - MWN advocated to accumulate Gold around 1,170 - 1,185 price going back a couple of months. Bought a decent heap of it in our SMSF using GOLD vehicle (listed on ASX). Medium term targets for spot gold price are 1,340 and then expect 1,400+ and as it surges I will trail a proprietary stop loss algo to lock in progressive gains.

 

A 50% down turn in house prices ?

 

Yesterday I mentioned next support for XAO is 5,720.....

LOOK AT TODAY'S LOW WHICH IS ALSO THIS WEEK'S LOW


Such is the inherent perfection of natural harmonics

No Advice

 

Possible worse case for Sydney and Melbourne given the large run up

 

That would unwind just ten years of gains in Melbourne - it would not be a base case, but it is certainly not impossible. I would say 10-15% chance. If you look at Sydney and Melbourne, rental yields are at record lows - even at double the current yield, the yields would not be that high.

This would obviously cause large losses for the banks

 

Thanks guys. It has been interesting watching share price movement in the last 4 weeks and also with recent profit/dividend announcement

 

Whilst I think a lot of the bad news from royal commission and also the housing downturn has somewhat been priced in, the red flag for me is the increase in payout ratio. I guess to be expected f profits fall and dividend maintains.
Nevertheless I'm here for the dividends and for the long term so I will keep buying.

 

Share price movement is not a big concern for buy & hold investors like us but the possibility of losing franking credits is . We're Howard's battlers

 

NAB’s trailing net yield currently 8.3%. Anyone biting out there?

 

Over 10% after frank credits... and NAB has less mortgage portfolio out of the rest Banks. Good price

 

Wow @Alex Straker you really know your stuff. I can't wait to read your next update. Thank you for sharing your insights....

 

NAB- is about the same around 8-3 --8-4 late afternoon today and the psychology of missjudgment of bear markets some think it's not in the buy range -I put an one day order in this morning but the price turned ..

 

I am scared by how accurate this prediction has turned out to be.

@Alex Straker what are tonight's Powerball numbers please?

 

5 year low for NAB, the dividends looks so juicy

 

I now have a lot of exposure to the big four, I must admit I will continue to add. In terms of NAB, I think we may possible reach the 21.20-21.80 level.
If this is breached we could head back to gfc levels.
As a dividend focused investor, looking from the outside in I honestly can't see any growth in dividends in the next 3 years at least.

 

Agreed dividend won't be growing in the next 3 years.

At 21.20-21.80, that's 10% dividend from a major bank. Time to load up?

 

Yes it is around that number,and the time I bought in when a strong company like this one was trading below their intrinsic value was after the GFC and I bought in too early at about the 20 dollar range then in went down again to the mid 15 buck mark but I never sold..Just keep it simple and you avoid the complicated ..imho..

 

I just continue to DCA, if any extra funds appear, I will tip in abt more. As stated above, I'm very heavy banks atm (touch over 25% of total holdings)