ASX Shares A Closer Look at the Big 4

True, if only i didnt need the money to buy our next home (renting since October 2017). So I might need to sell out soon just so I have cash available. Won't be perfect timing but I plan on making 10% from each of my shares which includes one div payment from each. I won't sell unless I can get at least that return. Might mean I'm holding for longer than planned but I'm not buying until last half of this year at the earliest.

 

Seeing as though the NAB share price, like all the BIG 4, have increased since the report was released on Monday, what was the point in the Chairman and CEO getting the flick? The market didn't seem to care about the slap they received within the report?

 

@Alex Straker love reading your posts. Do you forsee another dip for banks in near future?

 

@Alex Straker hoping to hear your latest update. So far you have been incredibly accurate.

 

Tucked back in my memory from somewhere I thought the pattern some traders suggested was buy CBA below $70 and sell CBA above $80 but I’ve never been a fan of CBA so didn’t ever try it

 

That was the problem with CBA,from the low in 25/10/18 at $65.70 it has mostly never gone above the $75 range this year and once you look at the fixed assets-current earning -and dividends and cash is still pouring in every minute rather then going out ..

The price is not that important it's already had an enormous hole cut into it's side by a mega-management catastrophe that unit holders like myself never thought possible..


The same people are still on the board ,that let this mess happen ..imho..

 

@Alex Straker - do you have an update on the banks now the RC is over? In particular you mentioned in a different post that 3 weeks from March 20th things would start to head downhill for the XJO (I think it was)? Do you see the banks more or less following - and how far would you expect them to drop this year - I think you mentioned something about the wheels falling off over the course of this year for aussie shares (if I read your other post correctly ).

 

Market seems to be going in opposite direction to what was predicted. Goes to show how difficult game of predicting market direction is. Everyone is trying to outsmart everyone else. Not easy to consistently do IMHO.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

When I say it's going in other direction I meant it's definitely not going in the direction predicted.

At the end of the day I would love the market to go down since I am in my accumulation stage. I dollar cost average every month so I would be thrilled to buy more shares for the same amount of dollars.

From what I can see is the current XJO value of 6277 is around 14.8% higher than December lows of 5467 and 2.46% higher than March low of 6126 when the prediction was made. Add in dividends received from VAS quarterly distribution today the returns are even better.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

Actually, as of typing it's up to 6388 nearing 6400

The banks are all rallying.

You cannot predict corporate earnings numbers, inflation number, Fed policy decisions by looking at charts IMHO. Which seems to be all contributing to the recent rally.

See link

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

sold some CBA call for $77 strike pocket $1000 premium
Mr Market can have my shares for $77 plus $1000 premium when the time comes
I got them at $68

 

that where you can get free money writing options, well it does have risk associated with option but most of the time my naked put and covered call never get assigned so free money 90% of the time , the one that get assigned I eventually make money out of it, writing another option or buy back lower

 

@oracle Yep, you are dead right this stuff is very hard to do!....and I was indeed off on my most recent call of a top for XJO, turned out a shorter term leg down than I expected. This is typical of tops which tend to have several attempts to find a final high point where as lows just happen in one hit and are much more defined.

This has not changed my view point at all and essentially the same forecast still applies......that we are in for a rough ride in equities 2nd half 2019 and it will begin very soon. In any case, I have posted new content today in the 'World Indices Round Up' thread. Give it some time, this is a long term view and I am hoping people be thanking me later on this year, that will mean we can all have a 'win' in one of the toughest games on the planet

Not trying to be a 'doom and gloomer' but I just present the case as I see it (and I read many signs and use a lot of different info, not just what I post on here). I have an even stronger conviction now that we will still see a significant down turn coming very soon, try not to get FOMO in the mean time or you will risk joining the greater fools

Now back to the Big 4....

Ok so lets see how the last bank forecast buy levels (posted early 2019) panned out......

These charts show the exact entry level I forecast in those recent posts, CBA and NAB did not sink as low as I had hoped. ANZ and WBC entries were near price perfect

I emphasized several times in multiple early 2019 posts the next post X-mas low for an entry would be in Feb and this has turned out bang on in every case (obviously timing wise the big 4 all pretty much move together).

ANZ


CBA


NAB


WBC


I do want to mention at this stage there is a still a good chance these 4 will turn down again mid-late May if my expectations for equities in general pan out so keep an eye out for any 'dramatic' sell offs.....and no need to be in a hurry to buy them again if this happens.

No advice

 

Things are moving up again. ASX200 closes above 6500 (Highest level in 11 years).

Let's see how long this party lasts. According to @Alex Straker the second half of the year doesn't look rosy.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

What do you think Alex about the second half of this year,and it seems straightforward enough with long term unit holders now the election is final we may see new 52 week highs as the basic fundamentals indicate anyone that was prepared to buy in early ride the media onslaught ride the downturn and not sell...

The 'Slaughter' House: ANZ's plans to thwart one of Australia's biggest-ever financial investigations

 

ASX200 at 6640 as I am typing just 200 shy of all time high of 6828 reached in 2007.

Will be interesting to see if it breaches the all time high over next few days/weeks. It’s about another 2.79% rise will breach the all time high.

I don’t think anyone on this forum predicted this outcome.

Cheers
Oracle

 

Just bc its at a high doesn't mean it has to drop.

 

Who said that?

Just look at the chart below. All those who thought this is the top have been proven wrong for past 120 years




Cheers
Oracle