ASX Shares A Closer Look at the Big 4

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Alex Straker, 15th Dec, 2017.

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  1. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    The Big 4

    General Information Only - No advice DYOR

    Getting a lot of questions on the big 4 with all the fuss around banking R.C.

    Need to openly disclose that this post is not a result of my own preferences in the market, it is a result of lots of requests for my views on the banks. I do hold all big 4 banks as long term accumulation income generators in my SMSF. I generally don't like holding any asset for trading purposes (looking for alpha) while it is still lagging the index (as banks are currently) however they are always a solid income generator and long term portfolio workhorse so this info is coming from a long term (investment basis) context, not expecting a particularly brilliant short term gain. If you are looking to shoot the lights out better off here...

    ASX Stocks Leading XJO

    Clearly there has been a lot of negativity surrounding banks recently and rightly so they are some of the biggest crooks in the country :eek: ;)

    That sentiment will pass over with time, however we may be see an anomalous advantage in pricing for a relatively short period ahead.

    Couple of caveats first...banks have been mostly lagging the index (XJO) on monthly basis and the ones that are not currently look to be heading back that way now.

    Banks RRG Mth 15DEC17.png

    On weekly basis they also look poor...

    Banks RRG Wk 15DEC17.png

    Adding more data we see on weekly basis they have rotated in weak side (left) for some time....

    Banks RRG Wk Ext 15DEC17.png

    Financials (ex property trusts) sector XXJ is also weak both on monthly and weekly basis.

    XXJ RRG Mth 15DEC17.png

    XXJ RRG Wk 15DEC17.png

    Being so weak all around means either that they will be in a sustained down trend for some time or they are in a temporary doldrums that will turn around. Personally I would rather look elsewhere and trade on evidence of strength.

    In any case here are the charts for those who are looking to accumulate, ideal price and time zones all given on the chart. These are long term charts so some of the expected timing is not until well into next year. Most of the timing suggest around April 2018 and they will often tend to bottom out at the same time.

    ANZ
    ANZ DEC17.png

    (Invalidated on weekly close below $25)

    CBA
    CBA 15DEC17.png

    (Invalidated on weekly close below $70)

    NAB
    NAB 15DEC17.png

    Invalidated on weekly close below $25

    WBC
    WBC 15DEC17.png

    Invalidated on weekly close below $19

    No Advice
     
    Last edited: 15th Dec, 2017
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  2. Ouga

    Ouga Well-Known Member

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    "Trying is the first step towards failure" Homer
    Thanks for sharing this content, it'll be interesting to keep an eye on.
    When you say level of interest - say for instance on CBA @$73 , that is a potential pivot point level/bottom at which to accumulate - is that correct?
    Thanks again for sharing
     
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  3. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @Ouga Welcome bro. Yes those levels are potential reversal points (+ or - a few pennies). Timing lines represent most likely dates and overall zone of pivot. Will update if need be as we get closer to the time, sometimes the geometry needs adjusting after more price action emerges. ANZ and WBC look pretty solid ideas technically but as I said I generally prefer to trade on strength.

    No advice
     
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  4. pinkboy

    pinkboy Well-Known Member

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    CBA has been in a trading range bouncing of 70 pesos up to about 85 pesos and back down again for the last 4 years. Any purchase sub 73 is going to give you a nice solid entry point for an exit above 80 for a 10% gain and probably a div in there too. If CBA breaks below 69, it w ill tumble fairly quickly back to the next resistance point.

    WES is the same. Solid trading range of between 40 (dipping to mid 38s) and 44-45 pesos the last 5 years and picking up divs along the way.

    Personally, WBC and NAB are more fundamental beasts. ANZ is somewhere in the middle. Just my amatuer view.

    pinkboy
     
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  5. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Thanks again Alex-Some of your posts are in a class of their own -one reads all the news media by self professed equity market "analysts"that give 7 handed opinions and 40 different answers each time with the constant flow of information minute by minute..
    I have a long-term interest in the 4 you posted ,plus a BOQ --BEN ,and i agree on CBA and was waiting a short time ago for cba to go below $72.00 range went mid $73 then turned --come early next year it may well go even lower only my simple blue collar opinion ..imho..
     
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  6. Swuzz

    Swuzz Well-Known Member

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    Good read. We're holding MVB which is the etf of the big 4+1+2.
     
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  7. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    Great post @Alex Straker

    I have been thinking of buying bank shares in SMSF as a long term outlook, thanks for sharing :)
     
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  8. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @willair Thanks so much my friend, really glad you are getting some value from this stuff!! Must be on a bit of a lucky streak I guess ;)

    These examples are pretty early calls, I would normally not be looking closely until a few weeks before D-day so things could change before we get to expected timing zones and this initial view may turn out completely wrong.

    Just trying to even up the playing field for you guys, lots of big nasty front-row forwards out there trading against us :eek:

    General info only - Always manage risk and spread your aggressive plays around in small amounts. You don't need many of them to fire to make plenty of nice alfalfa.

    No advice 'n all that
     
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  9. r3ckless

    r3ckless Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Alex for the technical insight!

    Do you feel that over the long term, NAB, WBC, ANZ will catch up to CBA share price, or will CBA fall back towards the other three?
     
  10. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @r3ckless welcome bro. No idea about which banks will perform best going forward, all I know is where the support and timing is. The relative strength chart will reveal all strength ratings when the new bull run begins. Look for the one that takes the leading position early on (furthest towards top right of leading quadrant) prob around April next year.

    No advice
     
  11. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    The Big 4 - Are we there yet???

    Important Updates - Entering the price and time zone first posted 15th December 2017

    ANZ
    ANZ 9FEB18.png

    CBA

    CBA 9FEB18.png

    NAB NAB 9FEB18.png

    WBC
    WBC 9FEB18.png

    No advice
     
    Last edited: 11th Feb, 2018
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  12. Lemmy a fiver

    Lemmy a fiver Well-Known Member

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    We are told our Big 4 are amongst the safest in the world? (Apparently?)
    But with the supposed G20 policy change of bank bailouts to bank bail ins above the limit guaranteed by different Government's worldwide.
    What are peoples thoughts on how that could/would affect Big 4 shareholders in a critical meltdown situation as so many Banks are interconnected in so many ways?
    I would love to hear others thoughts on this as many of our Aussie LIC'S are reasonably/heavily weighted in the Big 4.
    Not looking for advice....but looking for other's thoughts to potential down side for both individual shareholders & those who own bank shares retrospectively through LIC'S etc if this was to occur?
    Hoping it never does.....but....if TSHTF what are others thoughts on the possible ramifications?
    Cheers.
     
  13. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Looks like your on track Alex..Reading what Economists say about the Banks listed above some think it's all buy signals and the ability to purchase and the possess has accelerated rapidily but i still think it to early ,just sit watch and listen once you study acquisition habits numbers on one of the big 4 last week,but that may just have been for the fully franked dividends after the payment who knows..
     
  14. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @willair Time will tell, I have learned that when the downward impulse is this strong the market can become violently deceptive and give you hope for a technical low then it still will smash through it simply for the fact that timing of the downtrend is not complete. In short term mid Mar 2018 looks good, medium term Oct/Nov 2018. Longer term the downtrend could last for some time until 2020, quite normal for a longer term correction or opportunity (that's my word for 'crash' ;)).
     
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  15. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I agree Alex,simple economics is sometimes hard to digest but as we both know it is less predictable than what individuals investors and the avoidance of the present inconsistencies do in the meantime..

    This pattern is only the start,not worried 1% as I have experienced this pattern several times in my superstitious way of thinking..

    2015–16 stock market selloff - Wikipedia
     
  16. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    CBA Update

    Closing in on potential interim low. Probably more pain to come at some stage this year however.


    CBA has almost reached first price and time level forecast in OP on 15 Dec 2017

    With some negative sentiment surrounding them ATM I expect the previous low of 73.20 to get taken out on this strong impulse down even if only slightly. Watch development over next few days as mid Feb to early Mar has good timing characteristics. Early May is another timing area of interest for any potentially longer move down.

    If this downward move smashes through the median lines support and closes weak then 65.67 area takes on new importance.

    CBA

    CBA 15FEB18.png

    No advice
     
    Last edited: 16th Feb, 2018
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  17. db9

    db9 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the update! I feel like CBA would be a great long term holder - been wanting to get some banks for a while. I'm putting my acorns aside until I feel the time is right.
     
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  18. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I was watching the buy and sell numbers for a while today but while some recognise it as a possibility ,and it can't be dismissed lightly it seems to be holding around the $73.86 range for now and there does not seem to be any large numbers of unit holders heading for the exits going by the sales volumes..

    The worry for some is as the correction gathers its own momentum some large unit holders will dump shares and depress the overall value range now it's ex-div then it may become widespread and a large marco-economic problem..

    Myself in 1-2 years time one will look back and say it was just a bump in the road..

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: 16th Feb, 2018
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  19. BennEznElle

    BennEznElle Well-Known Member

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    I am looking at getting into a couple of the banks as long term holds but also to generate some cash-flow with NAB's healthy dividend.

    This is my first foray into shares so I'm fairly cautious and the only thing really holding me back, at least in terms of buying the banks is the royal banking commission and what affect that might have on the share price.

    I can't really see that the banking commission is going to be a positive result so I'm concerned what effect that might have on the share price. All the signs from the graphs above suggest that they are pretty much in a good dip based on historical trends, but does anyone have any thoughts on the effect that the banking commission will have on share price, at least in this year?
     
  20. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @BennEnElle Good question....A lot of the negativity gets priced in before the event, that's why the chart will give you a much better answer than trying to figure out the effect of current events. Generally I do see equities having a pretty bad year this year (see world indices thread) so not saying this will be the last opportunity we see. Personally I hope for MUCH better pricing but who would know for sure?

    IMO we need to view the chart's timing and support levels of potential lows as important and use each opportunity to gain another slight edge.

    No advice
     
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