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Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by hash_investor, 26th Jul, 2020.

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  1. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    40% is Armageddon, I simply see no way it could happen on a national scale. When you factor in easy credit (which if we even see 15% will get even easier), lowest ever interest rates, most state economies firing back into full tilt and governments openly willing to support the housing market then even 10% is probably a push.

    We are still only halfway into government handouts and mortgage deferrals and already federal and state schemes have begun. Expect this to ramp up as well.
     
    albanga, 28th Jul, 2020
    #41
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  2. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    40% is absolute cow manure.
     
    kierank, 28th Jul, 2020
    #42
  3. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    The old internet/social media adage applies here:

    “Read everything BUT believe nothing”.​
    I believe humility is a great personal attribute.
    Take it easy. Don’t blame me for your demise :p.
     
    kierank, 28th Jul, 2020
    #43
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  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Just for the record last meltdown in US property prices fell as much as 70% in 2007 and started recovering from 2011. Property has now surpassed 2007 prices

    Back to Australia.....

    So how does it work when government stops proping up the economy?

    What does job losses Really mean ?

    One positive is low interest rate environment
     
    Last edited: 28th Jul, 2020
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #44
  5. Zimplestiltskin

    Zimplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Australia is losing any money at this point. The money is just being distributed differently within the country, it's not being pushed down to lowest socio-economic levels. That's what Job Seeker is trying to maintain. The government will not stop that flow from happening. They will need to recoup the money by taxing the areas that are accumulating money during this period. Or they slowly pay the debt down over decades with tax reforms that hit everyone.

    I think our best option is to keep paying JobSeeker and try to eradicate virus.

    Australia can bring a lot of money into the economy through wealthy migrants. That has become even more enticing with the relatively low death numbers from this disease.
     
    Zimplestiltskin, 28th Jul, 2020
    #45
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  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    We are not taking migrants

    who knows when this will even happen

    We are losing money

    We need to look at next gdp quarter/figures

    The economic impact is yet to unfold how this effects property markets .... time will tell? Though there are markets already seeing small drops.
     
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #46
  7. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    The Australian Government will prop up our economy for as long as it takes.

    This article is a few months old but it is a good read:

    How come Australia suddenly has billions of dollars to pay for welfare?

    Love this quote:

    “This money is essentially unlimited”.​
     
    kierank, 28th Jul, 2020
    #47
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  8. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-7-28_8-1-28.png

    [​IMG]
     
    2FAST4U, 28th Jul, 2020
    #48
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  9. Zimplestiltskin

    Zimplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    How would we be losing money?
     
    Zimplestiltskin, 28th Jul, 2020
    #49
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    If we are in negative with GDP we are losing money
    Google
     
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #50
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #51
  12. Zimplestiltskin

    Zimplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    I haven't seen that we are sending more money out than we are bringing money in.

    Do you have an article or numbers you can share that show that?

    I do understand that we are bringing in less money with a lower GDP but I expected that we are sending out less money too.
     
    Last edited: 28th Jul, 2020
    Zimplestiltskin, 28th Jul, 2020
    #52
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I am not an economist and i am bad at Maths
    Before you buy a house or change jobs, understand what the GDP figures mean for you
     
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #53
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  14. Zimplestiltskin

    Zimplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah they never seem to show the balance of import or export. A reduced GDP means a slowed production which would typically mean we are losing money but in this instance every country in the world is affected by COVID.

    A reduced GDP means less flow, which means less jobs and vice versa. So that's not good.
     
    Zimplestiltskin, 28th Jul, 2020
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  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes and its global, not sure how it will all pan out

    More lockdowns will drive business’ to the wall, already happening
     
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #55
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  16. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Greg Sheridan makes a good point in today's paper.

    "... it's meaningless to talk about saving the economy as opposed to saving lives. If you don't stop the virus spreading, your health system collapses and people scream for major interventions.

    And if the infection rate is high people will be too scared to go to work or send their kids to school/"
     
    wylie, 28th Jul, 2020
    #56
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    But we cant get rid of coronavirus without a vaccine. So we lockdown till we get one? 2 years
    What do we come back to???

    Now we are seeing countries that succeeded going back to the drawing board

    We probably should learn from this. I am seeing people not too happy in lockdown, the longer it goes the more we will see people oppose this, more unrest
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Jul, 2020
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #57
  18. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    We can get rid of it without a vaccine but that probably won't happen, due to what we'd have to do to get there.

    If we can get Victoria sorted out and get people to stay home if they start to feel ill, and if people would be more careful and considerate, that would help.

    I also read this morning something about nursing home workers to be given extra paid sick leave so they don't go to work if they feel sick, because those who rely on being paid (casuals?) have been working whilst being sick because they need the cash (whether they know it or just suspect it).

    If we can get to a manageable level of infection, fast contract tracing and isolation, this might be the best we can do. But if Victoria's situation continues to flare up, then we are in big trouble.

    I won't be holding my breath for a vaccine. We have to step up individually, wear masks (where necessary) and thing about others instead of the "I'm ok mate, so stuff the rest of you" attitude some seem to be displaying.
     
    wylie, 28th Jul, 2020
    #58
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  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    This is sobering
    Look at median price Karratha Median over $1M, today $340,000?

    i started this thread a while back, this market still not recovered...... ouch

    Real Pain - Australian Mining Towns
     
    Last edited: 28th Jul, 2020
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #59
  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Masks only one factor to consider, there are so many more .... media just banging on this one at the moment. Tomorrow lets see what they bang on

    Here’s some stats to chew on, its probably going to get much worse with the way its going

    6160.0.55.001 - Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia, Week ending 11 July 2020


    At least we have jobseeker for those who need it
     
    MTR, 28th Jul, 2020
    #60
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