457 Visa changes, any side effect?

Any thoughts regarding the upcoming changes to abolish the 457 visa? Would it do any impact to the property market?

 

No, I don't think so. Those changes were long due and does not change property dynamics dramatically

 

I was wondering can 457 holder buy properties? Probably could affect the rental more since less people coming in to rent a place?

 

Chinese massage shops closing down across the nation.

Office workers suffering from chronicle back pain going on strike.

I don't know..

 

It's not just the low skilled industries that are affected but also the universities and some other highly skilled people on the 457 visas that are affected as well.

 

yes they can I sold one to a 457 (he was some senior manager in tech consulting).

 

They can, but thats because 457 is a route to permanent residency. The new visa coming soon that will replace the 457 does not have a pathway to PR. Lenders are not going to lend to someone who might not stay in the country.

 

So in some way it does affect the market due to lower migration inflow...?

 

I would say affects markets where they are a lots of these 457s like pt cooks, altonas, werribees, hoppers etc But in Melbourne most are already able to get the PRs so it maynot be till later would any on-flow affects.

 

"Market rate" for a 457 in low skilled jobs like massage shops and restaurant managers is about $130k. Better than actually running a business.

 

Think it will affect rental and house prices near universities . Will be selling slow also for OTP marketed overseas now that it's harder to get a PR?

 

I'm not sure what the effect would be. I think a lot of factors each cancel each other out! I.e. id we DIDN'T have a construction boom and thus looming oversupply issues in our major cap cities, then the 457 changes might have more effect.

I say this because if these cap cities were undersupplied generally, whilst there would be lesa immigration (well, at least less 457 holders anyway) you'd argue there'd be less 'buying' demand for the same volume of stock, and thus more rental demand (which could result in rent increases in some high demand postcodes).

But with so much apartment stock coming online, and rental 'boom' as a result of less buyers, would be more muted due to oversupply giving more choice to more rental seekers. Perhaps. Perhaps not. Too hard to say. Would need to study more the composition of the 457 labor force to have more clarity. I dont know much about this composition.

 

Whats the source for this ? From what I read, its only going to be a slightly longer pathway to PR and to citizenship.

 

What you need to know about the 457 visa changes

"Unlike the current visa arrangement, the replacement — a two year temporary visa specifically designed to recruit the “best and the brightest” in the national interest — will not allow permanent residency at its conclusion."

 

If you read the fine print 457 has effectively just been rebadged.

If you came from a foreign country on that visa don't worry just book a holiday back to your country in 2 years time where the Australian embassy will put a fresh stamp on your visa and charge you a couple of hundred dollars more. On the bright side you get to meet the friends and family and bring them some Aussie dollar so they can shop a bit.

Did you honestly think our politicians are that competent to change anything in any meaningful way?

 

That's because once you are here you can just hire a lawyer to find a slightly different way to get you a PR

 

There are changes coming in for citizenship too. It used to be four years in Australia, with one year as a permanent resident to qualify. Now it's four years after getting PR.

I don't think that the 457 changes are going to be relatively minor in practice, with the exception of the pathway to PR. But I suspect that there's a package of reforms in the works, along with a reduction in the number of migrants. In combination, that might affect the market.

 

The job descriptions were sufficiently vague anyway to allow enough wiggle room.

For example "web developer" was removed. Do you have any idea how easy it is to reclassify someone's job? They could be brought in as a software developer instead. Application developer. Solution architect. Team lead. Technical designer. Solution designer. Web designer. If a company really needs someone I doubt these changes will make a difference.

 

This.

The 457 as a route to PR could mean significant implications. Around 55% of Australia's population increase comes from overseas migrants. Overseas migrants are also the only soruce of population growth which injects new money to the housing market (interstate migrants just pull money from one state to another).

It comes down to how the replacement visas will work, but if it results in less population growth and no ability for migrants to service a loan or rent, then it could have a very notable impact.

Edit: further, between 50-100,000 people a year who come in on this visa add a significant load to the rental market and consumer demand. Not all of them turn in to PR's, but all of them will be renting and consuming while they're here. That has housing demand and economic demand implcations.

 

It is becoming a global theme, to restrict skilled migration/un skilled migration,
US, UK, Singapore, NZ etc.

With this measure Liberals are taking wind out of one nations appeal for its voters,
It just a start, it will go further in terms restrictions.
It will become fairly difficult for Aus business to bring people from overseas.

The real question is not what visa restriction will do, which would be trivial in comparison to what impact technological disruptions, which are just round the corner, will have on Jobs and as a result on property prices?

For e.g.
#. AI/Robotics automation and its impact on Jobs in Manufacturing, mining, retail, service, logistics, legal and even Defence.
Initially Amazons sucked up multiple big and small business and its associated jobs, but in turn created less paying jobs in terms of servicing Fulfilment centres. So though many jobs where lost few where created.
Most recently using robotics in fulfilment centres amazon was able to reduce the need of its fulfilment manpower by 1/10. This also enabled it to provide a quicker and even cheaper products to its clients. Its a cycle of ever increasing productivity and passing on the benefits to consumers and inturn makes it evermore difficult for other business to service.

#. Self driving cars and need for multiple cars and big car parks?