Forum is quiet

Not much action on the where to buy forum lately. Pretty good sign that markets are about to cool or have begun to cool.
Melbourne threads have dropped off significantly and Sydney threads have been non existent for a year pretty much and the market is now showing losses.
So will Melbourne start to show falls in the next 6-12 months?

Last time melb and Sydney cooled the Somersoft forum turned very pro regional and mining town - there was hardly a thread about melbourne on the Forum!
I doubt mining towns will be all the rage on here for a long time to come but I would expect your larger regionals to start getting a bit of airtime - population 50k plus
Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth should continue as well

Or has APRA taken the sting out of everything for years to come?

 

Nah we are just busy at work and at our other businesses we run. Cant spend time on here always. Got real world stuff to handle.

Business is picking up getting real busy even looking at hiring someone full time to fulfill orders, work is getting busy and managing Chinese/Asian and Indian suppliers are a pain in the ass.

Real estate is a long term thing. The fundamentals dont change that quickly.

 

Appreciate you letting us know what happened last time around. I assume very few on here were active back then and will be interesting to have a clue of what may happen.

By the way what year are you referring to by the way when you mention the last time Syd/Melb markets cooled?
And how many years was it quiet for? 1-2? 3-4? more?

 

Larger regionals?? There is already a popular thread on Geelong.

Noticed threads have slowed down, sign of the times, markets in Syd, Melb cooling.

Tassie still flying thread, just not as popular as Syd and Melb threads for obvious reasons.

Perth - plenty of threads on where to buy bargains, and whether the market has bottomed.

Brisbane - that just keeps giving

Adelaide- gone very quiet?

Shares - gone quiet, some nervous me thinks, been a bit of a roller coast ride lately.

Some threads on US, the usual crew @Karina @GentleChief and me

Bitcoin - dead me thinks??

Developments - also noticed this has gone quite, once again sign of the times?

What next - regionals? I don't think so

Mining towns - doubt it, this market has been hammered, recovery could be years off.

MTR

 

Yes. Bitcoin spruikers disappeared. Very sad. Was so much unjustified energy in that thread. Today market cap $300B. Far cry from the $800B it used to be.

Sydney is known why. On the ground apartment discounting is clear, not sure about houses but seems they came off.

Melbourne only starting, or so it seems.

 

Already has. it's currently sitting 0.75% below its december peak, and there are no signs that its going to rip higher any time soon. This quarter (also year to date) it has lost 0.5%, putting it in second last place ahead of Sydney (-1.8%). The BS spruikers calling 2-3% quarterly growth for the rest of the decade are swallowing their words faster than they can type new ones... so things are quiet.

 

I think Melbourne is done. Most places suburbs have had a good run at some stage over the last 3 years but I think it's just about run out, maybe still some small growth in outer suburbs but not much left in the tank.

I think coastal regional towns will start to go well, maybe not boom as such, but good solid growth.

I'm seeing more and more people assess the price of houses around Melbourne and thinking a sea change is the answer. This is some people in their 20-30s but more so people who are around 50-70 and can sell their suburban house and move coastal and realise large amounts of cash that, along with a part time job, will see them cruise into retirement.

I have spoken to many people in this situation and it makes perfect sense. If you have a house worth $900,000 (which can be a fairly average house in many areas of Melbourne) and can sell CGT free and buy a newish low maintenance house near the coast for around $400-500k that leaves you with a relatively huge amount of cash to help fund your lifestyle.

 

Might have to start pushing Qld regionals then!

Last cycle, following the Brisbane boom - GC, Ipswich, Toowoomba and a few of the central and northern towns had good growth - and their fair share of hype... A fair bit was probably due to mining, but affordability (and speculation) for investors would have played a part.

 

bitcoin maybe dead but alt coin is still alive !

 

Shares are very much alive. But a lot of people are just accumulating ETFs and LICS. I think the speculative stock buying has gone very quiet.

 

Yep think I've just done my last equity release for quite a while.

• APRA
• Income has taken a hit (wife on maternity leave)
• Increasing my investment portfolio cash% by taking some profits, but that has reduced the assessable investment income
• General property market slowdown means no significant new equity to release

My crypto discussion group has been almost dead silent since late Jan. The fundamentals haven't changed, but a large part of price action is down to exuberance which is at an all-time low. Grin and bear it

 

You could also take the view (that I have come to by handling the enquiry we get as BA's) that people do not know "where" to buy next. Putting Sydney & Melbourne aside, what are the Capital City options?
Brisbane - jobs? If you were an international business wanting to set up an office in Australia, then it usually comes down to a choice between Syd & Mel, not Brisbane.
Hobart - only does well because it picks up the ripple effect from Melbourne, otherwise there are not lot of drivers for CG there.
Adelaide - same comments as Brisbane and has always been a bit of a sleeper (although steady).
Perth - I think people are still gun-shy after the last few years of negative growth (mining industry related).
Mining towns - have never been on my radar for the reasons speculators (I hesitate to call them investors) have lost money and continue to do so.

I do think so and this is what we seem to be experiencing within 1-2 hours commute to Syd & Mel.

There is no doubt about this. We have a heap of investors wanting to buy, who cannot get finance on the new serviceability calcs. Time for the Peppers and the Liberty's of the lending world or other non-banks to grab some market share perhaps?

 

It's all this. The rest is just noise. I reckon they will keep this noose nice and tight for at least the next 10 years. Once rates rise, wages and yields catch up a bit they might start to loosen it a bit again.

 

Lots of scaredy cats on this site....do you all honestly believe there is no market left? No chance to operate in the real estate sector..it's all dead? Seriously you need to understand supply and demand before calling the whole thing finished.

 

Combination of many different things.

Plenty going on in both Australia and internationally that has caused stock markets, property markets etc to cool.

Now we're not seeing double digit growth, the 'bandwagon punters' will move on to the next new fad, until the next cycle.

 

People have lost half their purchasing power. In markets like Melbourne and Syndey which have the highest property prices that is a huge blow. Without easy access to credit how are people going to pay more and more for the same asset?

People keep saying Brisbane but the yields are trash and many of the desirable suburbs have already risen 40-50% in the last 5 years. If prices went up more we're talking yields of sub 2% there. Doesn't happen.

 

This is exactly what I am seeing in my business. Young families and baby boomers both leaving Sydney, Melbourne etc and opting for lifestyle a few hrs away on the coast.

Boomers are selling Sydney and Melb homes from $1m to $3m and spending $650-$1.5 on something nice on the coast and putting the rest in Super. The desire to be less than 3 hours away from the city is about being able to visit the kids/grandkids or have them visit.

Young families are taking their $100-200k saved deposit or an inheritence or a guarantor from mum n dad and choosing a family home on the coast with a backyard over a unit in the city. They then set up situation where they are telecommuting plus physical meetings 1-2 days per week in the city. They also want around 2h max distance for this reason too.

Some more tech savvy folk who own web and software companies don't care about the distance so much and really want something idyllic and will pay to get it, buying multi million dollar beach mansions too.

But the above 2 population groups are really middle of the road suburbanites who just got sick of the traffic/noise/daily grind.

The young families still need finance, which will of course remain bank dependent. The boomers however all seem to be cash buyers and are driving select markets harder than people think.

 

And although the young families still need finance there is a lot of occupations that earn the same similar money regardless of where they're working (teacher, paramedics, police etc) but also things like trades if you're only moving 2hrs from the CBD that only puts you 1 hour from the outer suburbs and a lot of new housing estates where there is a lot of work happening, so instead of travelling an hour in heavy traffic your potentially traveling 1 hour of highway driving.

 

exactly this

 

School holidays maybe?

I'm looking for my next development site so no slow down for me