300K to invest, only focus is on cap growth

I'm a pro at catching falling knives
Or a dead cat bounce

 

I'd be looking Brisbane , Adelaide or Hobart ( or Launceston ...)

Clif

 

Hehe.
Trying to catch falling knives is Ok. Just don't stick your foot out to try to stop it hitting the floor.

 

Outpace? Horse racing?

Population won't exceed those two

 

Yes, you're right, I meant more the % growth, which will likely affect prices more. Its harder for a 5m city to double than for a 2m city

 

Not in China.

 

Aus is a baby. Look at other cities populations. We have a looong way to go before we get a look in

 

20-30 years is a long time, and both Brisbane and Perth are forecast to push past the 4m barrier by 2050, which is double, I can't see Melb or Sydney doing that...

 

I am am uncertified psychic and see things very differently

 

Does it matter if Sydney's population grows more than other cities? No. What pushes up prices in Sydney is the scarcity of well located land. Theres always going to be a strong demand for it. You can't release more land South or North due to the National Parks and rivers acting as barriers and you can't expand East either due to the ocean. Therefore if people want to buy here on a budget they end up going South West, West, North West because anything closer is not cheap at all and if they don't like any of those, their other choices are Illawarra, Central Coast which require even more communting or units. Everything closer in is only available to people with a fair bit of money already.

Whereas there aren't necessarily the equivalent barriers to land releases in other Australian cities, commutes aren't as bad if you live on the outskirts. Which means price pressure in the inner areas also stay lower.

Think about San Franscisco, New York, Hong Kong, Singapore. Land is very much at a premium in these cities, there's a huge shortage of land and too much demand that only the uber rich could afford. Even units are close to unaffordable. Its just demand vs supply.

 

Population forecasts are all over the place. Some say it'll overtake Birsbane in absolute numbers but who knows?

20 years is a super long time frame. I for one don't subscribe to the idea of holding indefinitely.
I am all for take-profit than than take-hope.

 

I would second this - can get a lot <15km from CBD 600sqm block with development potential ~6% gross yield close to major shopping/hospitals and transport.

 

Won't get Bracken for 300. Won't even get dbay (maybe if fibro shack or flood prone)