NSW Postcode 2560 - 2570

After strong growth in the last 2 years a lot of projects are coming to market and the huge pipeline of development has now become viable and should mean significant population growth.
Still there seem to be a few opportunities out there as the market is still very jittery.

Personally i see another 20% next 2 yrs.

 

I thought we're talking a prediction of some 500 years later from the title of post.

 

Lol. In the yr 2560 I might be old enough to retire.

In the meantime Campbelltown are is still going through strong growth which most likely keep going for a few more years.
There are still reasonable opportunities around, and since there is talk of the property market tanking, there's a few sellers happy to sell.
Even some new developers are selling as fast as they can as they think the market has peaked.

I'm more than happy as i still see a 7 figure growth keep getting bigger.

2012-13 saw rents increases and prices stagnant, now prices have jumped but rents are not much different.
What does this mean? It's "adding value" season.

 

Fortunately I was wrong... and very happy
The stats are start catching up and it might it appear that there is no growth left, but I still see steady growth for the next 5 yrs as the market players adjust.

 

I decided to some research today into pricing trends and came up with some conclusions.

- My IPs and many properties in 2560 have increased around 40-60% in the last 3 years or so. Most of which happened over 2 years.

- Newer properties have not increased as much.
- Those who bought land and built seem to have done better than buying H+L package

- Most houses are now above the long term growth line, so i don't there is much chance of hi growth next few years if not any at all.
This will see a lot of property passed in at auction and longer listing times which does not mean a "crash" as many inexperienced people on this forum seem to believe.
It just means sellers who where asking too much get a price reality check.

The general economy does seem much improved and that should also dampen price growth.

The RBA is very afraid of raising interest as LVRs are still not low enough to give banks a security margin against possible default.
This may happen 2018, though the world seem to be following Japan which would mean 20 yrs of low rates. And that makes me doubt that rates will increase significantly any time soon.


And here is what was happening in Mar 2002

 

^ I should have snapped up each and every single one of those homes. I'd be retired right now. LOL

 

Would you say it doubled in those suburbs if you had/held then in the last 5-7years?

 

Yes. I have one in the area bought in 2012 for a price that was slightly more than what houses were selling for in 2002.

It's now worth twice what I paid, if not more.

 

It would have more than doubled I'd say

 

Caught up with a mate today who i know has moved a few times last few years.

He lived in the 2170 postcode, was thinking of moving and went prices increased he sold in 2014 after 6 or 7yrs.
Bought land built a house in a new 2570 suburb. After 6 mths house next door sells, so he thinks "if I get that I'd sell too!". 2 mth later sold for approx 250k more than costs.
He figures "I can build again for the same cost, and avoid some mistakes".

He buys a few kms down the road, builds then after 6 mths sees crazy prices and thinks the same again. Another ~240k on top of costs.

I said "sounds like a good job". He replied the wife made him promise to keep the next ppor for at least 10yrs.

He doesn't in the least think himself as an RE investor, flipper or builder.
When queried he just shrugged and said "They offered a great price, so i took it".
So without trying much in 4 yrs he's made a pre tax profit of around 400K.

That's what happens in a bull market. Boom Boom

 

And you believe his story?? Ok...

 

Yep, I know the addresses and I have access to RP data.
One sold for >1.2mil the other >1.3mil

I also need to make a correction one was 2567

Properties like these, lookem up
42 Whitten Parade Harrington Park NSW 2567 - House for Sale #125519130 - realestate.com.au

 

Did a little research last few days and I just don't see much downside for 2560.
There is an occasional property that was overpriced but i see stabilising with maybe some slight CG over the next few years.

On the expensive side in the area are the new land releases though I don't think these will come on the market any time soon.
Same happened in the previous new burbs a few years ago where values were often 50 to 100k below build cost, but owner occupiers had no intention of selling so they rarely came to market.

What I do see is a dramatic rent increase way over CPI next 5 yrs in 2560.

 

I am leaving my lease on periodic, even I have to put it on lease I will only do 6 months. This way I can increase $10 per every 6 mo, rather the hit tenants with $20 at the end of 12mo. Constructions down, property market softening...I can see a rental market boom. in the next 3-5 years.

 

I wonder which is more annoying - $10 every 6 months or $20 every yr. I reckon the former is a tad more worrying (for the tenant).

 

True that too, but I find it hard for tenant to cop $20, say from a $400 week rent.

For the western sydney I have been increasing $10 every 12 months for the last 3 years....wondering everyone is doing the same?

 

Yep same here. Over the last 12 months its been as below

Increased $15 for my St Marys property.
$10 at Mt Druitt and $10 in Colyton.

Is Parramatta, Auburn and Wentworth Point included?

If so then

Parra unit went up $20
Auburn I didnt increase it
Wentworth Point went up $15.

All the others I didnt increase within the last 12 months in Sydney

 

As far as MATHEMATICAL FUNDAMENTALS go, I reckon rents in Sydney need to go up 20-30% (if not more) over the next few years to justify current property values. OR, house prices need to fall. Which is more likely?

 

A bit from column A and a bit from column B.

 

Well it's time for some house resale figures to gauge the market in 2560

11 MAY 2018 - Sold $810,000
22 APR 2016 - Sold $795,000

10 JUL 2017 - Sold $920,000
24 JUN 2013 - Sold $560,000

17 AUG 2017 - Sold $625,000
16 SEP 2011 - Sold $335,000

24 JUL 2018 - Sold $820,000
15 JUL 2014 - Sold $560,000 911m2

16 FEB 2019 - Sold $680,000
03 MAR 2014 - Sold $300,000

12 SEP 2018 - Sold $690,000
04 APR 2007 - Sold $342,500

04 JUN 2018 - Sold $586,000
15 NOV 2002 - Sold $257,000

25 FEB 2019 - Sold $595,000
24 MAR 2004 - Sold $300,000

31 MAY 2017 - Sold $615,000
20 NOV 2015 - Sold $570,000

18 JUN 2018 - Sold $850,000
27 OCT 2017 - Sold $850,000

08 APR 2016 - Sold $600,000
2 MAY 2014 - Sold $440,000

12 JAN 2017 - Sold $907,000
23 JUN 2006 - Sold $543,500

15 SEP 2017 - Sold $565,000
08 MAY 2013 - Sold $270,000

29 MAR 2019 - Sold $770,000
31 MAR 2011 - Sold $485,000

Cant find any negative resales after a quick search in Campbelltown area so things havent't been too bad.