The garbage may be about to hit the fan in Sydney

Hi All,

We may have a problem in Syd, I am not sure how many can see it, but from further out where I look, it has slowed and dropped, so much so I think the wave is about to start making it's way in.

There is a lot of stuff sitting around, and I am looking at an area where a couple of years ago there was say 2 listings (most sold before ads) to a handful or so when first lot of reg changes, then rates were cut and off again it went,,,,,,

We are now at a point where I think it will break, many things on market, still selling & indeed some cheap places may get a lift from Jul for a few months, but you can do what you want to a deflating balloon, it is still deflating.

What are you seeing ?

What are you doing ?

Buying? Selling ? Holding ? and why...

 

Nah mate...you are being negative nilly.......Sydney will increase another 50% due to the FHB grants....its all apples.......

Now is the time to get on a Peter Thornhills course and pull equity out of the Sydney market...and plop into industrial shares via margin loans...just before a correction in Oct this year?

Does history repeat itself or is it more appropriate to ask whether the pope is Catholic?

 

Syd is Effed possibly, too many things and people talking too me about Syd...

There may be a spike for a bit due to FHB grants, but I bet it won't last too long, it is like blowing your last breath into your car tyre after the valve has gone into orbit.....

I dunno much about shares, apart from you can lose money or make it quicker, I am not doing any shares, business here is so so, property has been propping everything up, if it pops, shares will be hit too, anyway, not for me....

History, yeah, well, lot of people I think will find out what you said is true, I would not be surprised if in 5 years Syd and Perth swap places to some extent.

Lets put it this way, if people want to get in, there is a lot around the 500-650 range, it is stalling, add units onto that......it could be a mess.

But unlike you, I wont buy back in, unless wages change, or for convenience sake or really good buy.

 

I would be shorting sydney property big time if such a trade existed.

 

Yep!
Looking at a new ppor. 6 weeks ago "80% sold within first 2 weeks" said an agent. ... they're still advertised. One property crashed 3 times due to finance

 

yep jnow someone who bought in penriffe for 475k ....bought 3 times at 950...and then 910 as it has devie potential crased on finance val 3 times

 

Premium 2/2/1's in the city fringe renting for 950 a year ago, alot of stock in the suburb, months on the rental market, being reduced to 800-850 and still on.
I'd say the investors who bought in hope of some crazy capital gains are feeling the pain of holding these babies.

 

We are looking at Ryde / Gladesville / Putney area for a PPOR and prices are still going crazy especially if it has potential for a duplex. The only ones not selling at auction usually have development issues, like Sewer lines, Easements or odd shaped blocks.

We have visited 5 auctions and all have sold for 10% or more than the highest price guide. Most have been knock down rebuilds, one was advertised as $1.8 - $1.9 bidding stopped at $2,050,000 the agent went to the owner and came back saying its not on the market, so bidding started again and it sold for $2.35 million.

Its at the point we may sit on the sideline for a year and see,unless we find our perfect block at a decent price.

Hoping the rental market isn't so hard as its been 20yrs since we have rented anything

 

An "investor" bought a place around the corner for granny flat potential by converting a double garage. Paid 40k premium
Another investor looking at our place for granny flat potential. ... I've told our agent to jack the price up if council allows it

 

Are you in the lower Blue Mountains Bob?? I'm interested to know how the market is there at the moment as considering selling next financial year? Also "potential" granny flat propoerty as well so that is also good to know. Thanks in advance

 

Interesting read that the auction frenzy is starting to die down, written by our very own Jen Dukes.
Sydney housing market enters 'new phase' as auction clearance rates head south

Should be interesting to see all the FHBees rushing to sub $650k listings looking for a bargain next week. Will have trouble identifying them from the all the schoolkids estactic that school holidays are here.

 

Cookie cutter new H&L, apartments, outer suburbia slowing.

Development blocks, middle and inner ring houses, acreage close to suburbia HOT.

Even though some segments are still hot the contagion will spread eventually. We're heading into a couple of flat years and then a few years of falls. I expect a drop of around 10-20% depending on the property and area. Will be a few fire sales thrown in just for the odd sensationalist headline. I don't think Western Sydney will get hammered as badly as the mid 2000's this time due to the amount of infrastructure and new businesses this time around.

Bought acreage PPOR, sold cookie cutter outer suburbia PPOR.

Haven't looked at IP's in Sydney for a few years, yields are trash. Not selling anything as they are all positive cashflow. One in particular would be near impossible to buy again as an IP if I sold.

 

If the Sydney prices drop 10% who gives a ****. Everyone on here made a 100% profit on their houses probably. Even if it drops 20% which it wont again who gives a ****.

Relax short term this is direct effect from APRA which was expected. Whoever didnt expect it is kidding themselves. Long term view (i.e) over 5 or 10 years your going to make money no matter what happens in the next 6 months.

 

@dabbler ...you crabbie ole man....now sees whats you gone an dun....this could be turning point for the Sydney market.......i am off to pull my cash out of offsets and dimp it into industrial shares......

Just kiddin....got thread.....on a convo that needs to appen

 

10 years is a long time son when you are ole like moi........ that is a generation.....

dont worry what the worst which can happen...you lose all your properties....

 

Let me tell you this. If Sydney prices drop 50% I'll take EVERYTHING out of my equity (all 4-5 million) and buy every single damn house there is for sale that I can possibly buy.

Everyone thinking short term views after you already made 100-150% profits. Obviously nothing can continue to climb and the reduction in auction clearence rates and slow sales its direct from APRA cutting back on investor loans. Its directly impacting as no access to finance directly impacts the market.

Everyone acting like this is some major news. Obviously this was going to happen as soon as APRA announced the changes. Their limiting the hand that feeds the market.

 

Your equity after a 50% price drop:

 

Will banks start making margin calls (or whatever technical term it is) on loans if Syd prices drop 50%? Or do they not care as long as you continue repayments like business as usual?

 

They havent made margin calls on the mining towns.

 

Not mine. Maybe yours. I've already realised alot of my equity due to other reasons not because of the market last year.

Either way its not dropping in value just slower and reduced clearence.

My next door neighbour (well 2 houses down) got $150k more than asking last weekend. So there you go.